Push for ocean roadmap that informs next global stocktake grows at COP31

A coalition of small island states, African countries, the European Union and other G20 nations is leading a push at COP31 in Antalya for a process that can deliver stronger ocean mandates in a key review of climate policies in 2028.

The group of countries is seeking to anchor the sprawling ocean agenda — which ranges from decarbonising transport and energy, adaptation of tourism and fisheries, and loss and damage — into the formal UN negotiations.

This year’s COP31 offers them a prime opportunity, experts say, as the Turkish and Australian co-presidency has signaled its intention to put oceans high in the summit’s agenda.

The ocean is the world’s largest carbon sink and it has absorbed 93% of excess heat in the atmosphere. An extreme El Niño event this year has led to record-breaking temperatures of over 30℃ in some parts of the Pacific, placing coastal communities and fisheries at risk.

While some initiatives have emerged to strengthen the ocean’s role in national climate plans, at formal UN negotiations it has been sidelined to a voluntary dialogue with no negotiated agreements.

Strong backing for ocean outcome in Antalya

A key battleground is whether to kickstart a process at COP31 that would seek a strong reference to oceans in the next global stocktake of climate policies in 2028.

The Ocean Dialogue, established in 2021 and made annual in 2023, is currently the only space within the UN climate process that takes stock on ocean issues. Delegates met in June in Bonn, and also called for more integration of the ocean into climate talks.

On Wednesday at an UN-organised side event to mark the wrap up of this year’s Ocean Dialogue, there was a clearer consensus on the idea of linking this technical space with the broader process.

Speaking on behalf of the AOSIS group of 39 island states, Carlos Varela, Cabo Verde’s environment minister, asked for a “multi-year plan” that would “connect the outcomes of the dialogue with the Paris Agreement ambition cycle, including the second Global Stocktake.”

Indonesia, Niue on behalf of Pacific island states, the European Union, Indonesia and and Ghana on behalf of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) all explicitly supported a multi year roadmap aligned with the Paris Agreement, and Brazil stated that they “saw value” in this idea. No party in the room spoke against it.

Marine Lecerf, head of International Policy at the Ocean & Climate Platform, told Climate Home she could “see this land in the cover decision”, a text that is set to be the main COP31 deal.

She said a proposal for an ocean roadmap linked to the next global stocktake is the one that “received the most consensus”, but that, if the cover decision becomes a “Christmas list”, there is a risk that the presidency decides to leave this out.

However, Lecerf said this is a more promising year, and explained that some heads of delegations have already told the COP31 presidency that the ocean is a priority for them, and both Türkiye and Australia seem on board.

Sea weed is grown or farmed in the shallow waters of the Indian Ocean, off Wasini Island, Kenya, with plants tied to ropes in the water. (Photo: Anthony Onyango / Climate Visuals)

Strengthening ‘blue’ climate plans

Another initiative mentioned as part of the ocean dialogue is for countries to “enhance climate ambition through ocean-based priorities in NDCs”, which is currently not a mandate they must follow.

France and Brazil have led a voluntary initiative called the Blue NDC Challenge seeking to incentivise more countries to include ‘blue plans’ in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Seventeen countries have joined the initiative so far.

In the push to make NDCs more blue, “some countries are arguing that it is too prescriptive to include a specific sector or specific type of ecosystem,” Lecerf said. “It’s a minority, but it’s something we’ve been hearing.”

90% of island and coastal nations include at least one ocean action in their latest round of NDCs, up from 73% in the previous round, which shows movement in the right direction, said Jonathan Baines, ocean programme manager at the World Resources Institute (WRI).

But these are very focused on climate impacts to coastal communities and on managing protected areas, but only 12% of commitments were related to offshore energy, shipping and aquatic food systems, the WRI analysis shows.

Still, this was a rise from the previous round, and “a very welcome broadening of those mitigation efforts, with maritime transport emerging alongside marine conservation as a major priority for cutting emissions,” he explained.

Other proposals mentioned at the UN event included focusing on ramping up blue finance, as well as steering the Green Climate Fund (GCF) towards and increased focus on ocean projects.

‘Blue COP31’ set to spotlight need for ocean protections amid record heat

Fossil fuels still the elephant in the room

No country has made pledges to phase out offshore oil and gas, which Colombia’s former environment minister Irene Vélez Torres pointed as a key omission.

“COP31 can’t have a credible ocean agenda while ignoring what is being drilled and mined beneath the waves,” she told Climate Home News.

Offshore extraction dominates fossil fuel growth, with 85% of new discoveries and 71% of new projects found at sea. “COP31 should make the ocean a frontline of the transition away from fossil fuels, not a new frontier for their expansion,” said Vélez.

Mona Ainu’u, minister for Natural Resources from the Pacific island of Niue, told Climate Home News that the increased fossil fuel production and scarce climate finance is devastating for small island states like hers.

A November report by Zero Carbon Analytics found that barely 2% of the nearly $550 bn needed for the blue economy is reaching the ocean.

“I left my home four days ago to be here,” Ainu’u said. “El Niño did a really bad job this year, and everything is just dying.”

Speaking on behalf of Pacific island states at the event, she explained that access to finance is lacking for “large ocean states” that want to implement solutions.

“We can’t just be waiting because all this talk and it’s all positive and it’s all good and it’s all nice and theory-like”, said Ainu’u. “But eventually, when we leave COP, we wait for years to receive any support.”

The post Push for ocean roadmap that informs next global stocktake grows at COP31 appeared first on Climate Home News.