‎$1 trillion economy: Nigeria needs double-digit growth, massive investments – Soludo

‎… Says Tinubu rescued economy from collapse, but 4% growth insufficient to fight poverty
‎–Urges FG to consider connecting Onitsha Onitsha coastal highway, port infrastructure around Onne.
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‎By Johnbosco Agbakwuru
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‎ABUJA– THE Governor of Anambra State and former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, has cautioned that Nigeria’s goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy will remain out of reach unless the country records double-digit economic growth and attracts substantially greater investment from both government and the private sector.
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‎The Governor said that while President Bola Tinubu’s administration had successfully pulled the economy back from the brink of collapse and restored some stability, the current growth rate of about four per cent was far too low to drive rapid industrialisation, meaningfully reduce poverty, or create enough jobs for the country’s fast-growing population.
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‎He therefore advocated a new phase of bold economic transformation, supported by investment of more than 30 per cent of GDP, sustained industrialisation, competitive exchange-rate policies, and reforms that continue beyond electoral cycles
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‎This is as the Governor has urged the Federal Government to consider the potential economic benefits of connecting Onitsha to the coastal highway and the port infrastructure around Onne.
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‎Prof. Soludo stated the above on Thursday while delivering the keynote address at the presentation of a book titled “Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: The Past, The Present, The Future”, written by a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Abdulmumini Jibrin Kofa, at the Old Banquet Hall, Presidential Villa, Abuja.
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‎Speaking on the theme, “Speeding Up and Building to Last,” Soludo observed that Nigeria had forfeited considerable time in its economic development journey, and emphasised the need to pursue structural transformation with unprecedented urgency.
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‎According to him, the country could not afford another cycle of ambitious economic plans that failed to produce sustained growth, particularly with its population projected to reach about 400 million within the next three decades.
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‎He said: “The administration has done very well, rescued the economy. As I previously described it, the economy when this government came in was like a dead horse that was still standing.
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‎”It sprayed some oxygen to it. Growth has begun to come back, and we are now on the right trajectory. But acceleration, speed and building to last become important considerations going forward.”
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‎The Anambra State Governor contended that the country’s current economic growth, though an improvement over previous years, was insufficient to meet its development aspirations.
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‎He said: “Four per cent growth rate for the economy so far is an improvement over the recent past, but very moderate growth for the requirement for significant poverty reduction or accelerated transformation.
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‎”Such growth that will be required to be able to have a $1 trillion economy in the next few years will require this economy growing at a minimum of double digit.
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‎”And to grow at double digit, you require huge investments in excess of 30 per cent of GDP. Currently, we are doing about 17-point-something per cent”, he explained.
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‎Soludo said the challenge was particularly urgent because Nigeria’s population was expanding rapidly, with approximately 70 per cent of its citizens aged 30 years and below.
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‎He warned that millions of young Nigerians would require employment, education, healthcare, housing and other essential services in the coming decades.
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‎”We have lost time and must now run at the speed of 1,000 kilometres per hour if we want to leapfrog, catch up and surpass our peers in this increasingly competitive and disruptive world.
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‎”The current foundations by this administration are in the right direction. The road ahead towards structural transformation will require dozens more disruptive but progressive agendas”, he declared.
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‎He noted that the manufacturing sector had remained largely stagnant, accounting for about eight per cent of GDP over the past 56 years.
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‎”There is a major missing link. Nigeria transited from the primary to the tertiary services sector.
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‎”Our economic diversification and transformation have happened with a missing middle. There is a middle that is missing, which is the secondary sector.
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‎”Bypassing the secondary sector under a phenomenon of premature deindustrialisation and incomplete industrialisation, the share of manufacturing has remained flat at about eight per cent for the last 56 years, since 1970.
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‎”The manufacturing sector is still less than 10 per cent, and that is where the jobs are for the 400 million Nigerians coming. They need manufacturing jobs.
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‎”Industrialisation must happen if we are to have a sustainable economy that creates jobs and widespread prosperity”, Soludo said.
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‎He also stressed the importance of a deliberate exchange rate strategy in promoting export-led industrialisation, saying Nigeria had historically undermined its productive capacity by maintaining an overvalued currency.
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‎The former CBN governor commended Tinubu for confronting longstanding distortions in the foreign exchange market, arguing that a competitive real effective exchange rate was essential to improving Nigeria’s international competitiveness.
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‎He recalled resisting pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revalue the naira during his tenure at the Central Bank, explaining that his administration deliberately pursued a competitive exchange rate policy.
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‎According to him, this strategy, alongside banking consolidation and the accumulation of substantial external reserves, helped Nigeria withstand the 2008 global financial crisis.
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‎”Having an overvalued real effective exchange rate and expecting industrial competitiveness was one of Nigeria’s greatest mistakes on the road to transformation.
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‎”During my time at the Central Bank, I resisted the IMF advice to revalue the naira. We targeted a real effective exchange rate undervaluation.
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‎”There can be no sustained diversification and competitiveness of the economy without an exchange rate strategy”, he said.
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‎Soludo argued that the administration’s exchange rate reforms had contributed to improvements in non-oil exports, foreign reserves and capital inflows.
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‎The governor said the country’s limited fiscal capacity reinforced the need for stronger revenue mobilisation, private investment and a development strategy capable of attracting substantial capital.
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‎Turning to infrastructure, Soludo commended the Tinubu administration’s major transport projects, particularly the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, which he said could help unlock new economic corridors and connect emerging industrial centres.
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‎He advocated the deliberate integration of major Nigerian cities, including Lagos, Onitsha, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and Kano, into interconnected engines of industrial and commercial growth.
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‎He particularly urged the Federal Government to consider the potential economic benefits of connecting Onitsha to the coastal highway and the port infrastructure around Onne.
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‎According to him, such connectivity could dramatically improve access to maritime trade for manufacturers and traders in the South-East.
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‎Soludo also called for greater attention to demographic changes, technological disruption, climate change and rapid urbanisation in the formulation of long-term development policies.
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‎On the political sustainability of reforms, Soludo cautioned against abandoning long-term development programmes in pursuit of short-term electoral popularity.
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‎With the 2027 general elections approaching, he said political leaders must resist the temptation to sacrifice economic reforms for immediate political advantage.
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‎Soludo argued that the challenge of sustaining development programmes was particularly pronounced in multiparty democracies operating short electoral cycles.
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‎He said Nigeria must find a way to reconcile political competition with a shared commitment to long-term economic transformation.
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‎Soludo also challenged Nigerians to demonstrate greater confidence in locally manufactured products, arguing that consumer preferences could play a significant role in industrial revival.
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‎He said a nationwide commitment to purchasing Nigerian products would stimulate domestic production, attract investment and generate millions of employment opportunities.
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‎”Imagine for a moment if all Nigerians only eat and wear made-in-Nigeria products. Imagine the millions of jobs and the foreign direct investment that will relocate to exploit the Nigerian market”, he said.
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‎President Tinubu was represented at the event by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Tajudeen Abbas, while other dignitaries included the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, ministers, lawmakers and senior government officials.
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