Zimbabwe economy to grow 5% in 2028 after El Niño-induced slowdown, Mthuli Ncube says

Zimbabwe’s economic growth is forecast to recover to 5 percent in 2028 and average above that level through 2030, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has said.

Ncube made the remarks in the ministry’s Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, contained in the IMF’s staff report on the second review of the 10-month Staff-Monitored Program on Zimbabwe, published late Wednesday.

Zimbabwe’s medium-term economic prospects remain favorable, with economic growth expected to rebound to 5 percent in 2028 from an El Niño-induced slowdown to 3.5 percent in 2027, he said.

Ncube said growth is projected to strengthen from 2028, averaging slightly above 5 percent during the 2028-2030 period as investment, productivity and economic reforms take hold.

Strong growth after 2028 will be anchored by prudent macroeconomic policies, ongoing structural reforms and continued expansion in key productive sectors, he said.

“Medium-term prospects would be further strengthened by progress on arrears clearance and debt resolution, which would help unlock concessional financing and foreign direct investment,” he said.

Ncube added that inflation is expected to remain in single digits during the 2028-2030 period, supported by fiscal discipline, prudent monetary policy, exchange rate stability and continued strengthening of monetary policy operations.

However, he noted that the outlook remains subject to downside risks, including the forecast El Nino phenomenon for the 2026/27 agricultural season, which could weigh on agricultural production, food security, hydropower generation, fiscal revenues and growth.

A prolonged Middle East conflict could also increase fuel and fertilizer prices, disrupt shipping and renew inflationary pressures, while commodity price volatility and weaker global demand could weigh on exports and reserves build-up, he said.

Domestically, higher goods and services costs, priority social spending needs, gold incentives and arrears-clearance obligations could place pressure on fiscal space.

On the upside, stronger gold prices, higher mining investment, faster implementation of reforms and progress on re-engagement could strengthen confidence, support growth and accelerate reserves build-up, Ncube said.

Xinhua

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