The bulk of the SADC region, including most of Zimbabwe, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in the upcoming 2026/27 season as a strong El Niño develops, according to the latest regional climate outlook. The forecast was issued at the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to […]
The bulk of the SADC region, including most of Zimbabwe, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in the upcoming 2026/27 season as a strong El Niño develops, according to the latest regional climate outlook.
The forecast was issued at the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August 2026.
Climate experts from SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and the SADC Climate Services Centre developed the consensus outlook with input from global centres including ECMWF, NOAA, the UK Met Office and others.
Scientists say El Niño conditions are already established in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen further, reaching strong to very strong intensity during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 period and persisting into early 2027.
A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop by September and persist through OND, which could enhance or moderate the El Niño signal at the local level.
The outlook covers the main rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027, presented in four overlapping periods.
October-November-December 2026: Much of Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho have an increased chance of below-normal rainfall, with high confidence. In contrast, most of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania have increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall. Eastern DRC and most of Tanzania have increased chances of above-normal rainfall, with high confidence.
November-December 2026 to January 2027: The pattern shifts south. Most of Namibia, southern Botswana, most of South Africa and Lesotho, as well as southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, southern Malawi, much of Zimbabwe and much of Mozambique are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, with high confidence.
December 2026 to February 2027 and January to March 2027: The drier-than-normal conditions are expected to persist over the central and southern parts of the region. The core zone, which includes most of Angola, the bulk of Zambia, central and southern Malawi, central Mozambique, Namibia, the bulk of Botswana, western South Africa and the bulk of Zimbabwe, has increased chances of below-normal rainfall.
Southern Zimbabwe, eastern South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini are expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall in the later part of the season.
Northern areas will be wetter. Eastern Tanzania and extreme northern Mozambique are consistently forecast to have above-normal rainfall with high confidence through to March 2027. The Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius are also expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The temperature outlook for October 2026 to January 2027 indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures over most of the SADC region, except over central to northeastern parts where cooler than usual temperatures are expected.
For Zimbabwe, the outlook points to a difficult season. From OND through to JFM, the bulk of the country falls in the zone with increased chances of below-normal rainfall, with high confidence. The southern parts of the country are forecast to have normal to below-normal rainfall in the January to March period.
The anticipated pattern is broadly consistent with the established influence of strong El Niño events on Southern Africa, which generally brings below-normal rainfall to large parts of the central and southern region.
