BHP copper output falls 19% as FY2027 targets stay unchanged

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JSE-listed BHP reported a 19% year-on-year fall in copper production for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, while keeping its full-year production targets unchanged.

The group’s operational review, dated 20 October, put copper output at 400,700 tonnes. Its FY2027 guidance remains 1.65 million to 1.8 million tonnes.

The quarterly decline reflects a combination of planned operating changes and disruptions. BHP attributed the weaker copper performance to lower ore grades, scheduled maintenance, severe weather in Chile, temporary safety stoppages and a conveyor failure at Carrapateena in Australia.

What weighed on copper output

At Escondida in Chile, production fell 23% from a year earlier to 252,600 tonnes, measured on a 100% operation basis. BHP reported lower planned feed grades, while severe weather during July and August disrupted logistics and truck use.

Copper South Australia produced 60,700 tonnes, down 16% year on year. BHP said the main cause was the underground conveyor failure at Carrapateena, which it had previously disclosed with its FY2026 results.

A replacement belt was installed and operating within seven weeks. After production ramped up through September, the conveyor is now running at full capacity. The division’s annual guidance remains 290,000 to 320,000 tonnes.

Iron ore provided a stronger year-on-year comparison. Group production rose 4% to 66.5 million tonnes, with annual guidance unchanged at 260 million to 272 million tonnes. BHP’s Western Australia Iron Ore business achieved first-quarter records at its mine and port operations despite significant planned maintenance.

Olympic Dam points to a longer horizon

Alongside the current production figures, BHP reported its first underground block-cave mineral resource at Olympic Dam in South Australia: 10.73 billion tonnes of material grading 0.59% copper, assessed as at 1 September 2026.

That resource figure describes material assessed for a possible mining method. It is separate from copper already produced and from the company’s annual output forecast.

BHP says the block-cave resource has not been converted into an ore reserve. Existing ore reserves remain unchanged, the assessment is at an early stage and the timing of any potential development is unknown.

The company’s broader ambition is to lift Copper South Australia production to about 500,000 tonnes a year by 2035 and up to 650,000 tonnes by 2040. Those longer-term aims are distinct from the unchanged FY2027 targets accompanying this quarter’s lower output.