Federal Government Welcomes Fitch’s Positive Outlook, Eyes Investment Grade

The federal government has said Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise Nigeria’s outlook to Positive validates the reforms of the President Bola Tinubu administration, adding that its medium-term goal is to place the country on the path to investment grade.

The minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said who made this known, added that the government’s medium-term ambition is to place the country on the path to investment grade.

Oyedele stated on Saturday that the reforms include the removal of the fuel subsidy, the unification of the exchange rate and the new tax laws.

Fitch on October 9 revised the outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable and affirmed the ratings at ‘B’. A Positive Outlook means the rating could be raised if current trends continue.

The minister said the government is pursuing the reforms not for the rating itself, but because they will lower Nigeria’s cost of capital, attract private investment and create decent jobs at scale.

According to him, the Fitch action means all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria this year. He said S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August.

Oyedele added that FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026. He said these decisions together reflect a converging and increasingly favourable view of the country’s reform path.

The minister noted that Fitch attributed the improved outlook to greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster-than-expected growth in foreign exchange reserves. He cited Fitch’s figures showing gross reserves at $54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in April 2024.

He also pointed to Fitch’s forecasts of 4.3 per cent real GDP growth in 2026 and average inflation of 15.4 per cent, which he said is less than half the 2024 level. He said Fitch projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP over 2026 to 2028, against the ‘B’ median of 56 per cent.

Oyedele acknowledged the areas where Fitch sees room for progress. He said inflation, although falling, remains above that of peer countries, government revenue is still low relative to the size of the economy, and interest costs take up a high share of that revenue.

He said these are the constraints the government’s reform programme is designed to address.

The minister listed the government’s priorities as: sustaining reform momentum and a disciplined, market-reflective and transparent foreign exchange regime; raising revenue through full implementation of the new tax laws and efficient tax administration; improving fiscal governance through spending efficiency, budget execution and transparent debt management; advancing structural reforms that support non-oil growth and diversification; and converting macroeconomic stability into shared prosperity through food security, decent jobs, human development and support for small businesses.

Oyedele said he noted Fitch’s guidance that a rating upgrade could follow sustained disinflation and reform implementation, further strengthening of external reserves, and stronger mobilisation of non-oil revenue. He said these remain central pillars of the administration’s economic strategy.