Cracks open as Muhoozi, Rwabwogo clash

For years, Uganda’s argument over who might eventually succeed President Yoweri Museveni has largely played out outside the First Family, among opposition politicians, ruling-party officials, commentators and activists trying to read the President’s intentions.

Now, some of that tension appears to be moving inside the family itself. Last week, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the Chief of Defence Forces and Museveni’s son, publicly threatened to arrest Odrek Rwabwogo, the President’s son-inlaw and husband to Bishop Patience Kokundeka Rwabwogo.

In a barrage of messages on X, Muhoozi accused Rwabwogo and officials of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID), which Rwabwogo chairs, of corruption. He also warned government agencies against working with the committee.

The immediate cause of the renewed hostility remains unclear. Only weeks earlier, Muhoozi had declared a ceasefire with Rwabwogo following what was said to be a reconciliation meeting convened at the urging of First Lady Janet Museveni.

Muhoozi publicly called for a truce and asked his supporters to do the same. But the peace did not last. Four people who spoke to* The Observer* for this story, said the quarrel is about something much bigger than PACEID.

They believe it offers a glimpse into an increasingly sensitive question inside Uganda’s most powerful family: who comes after Museveni? All four sources were granted anonymity because discussing internal First Family politics is so sensitive.

“As you can see, there has been a near-total emasculation of the traditional opposition. They no longer pose any danger to Muhoozi’s desire for power. Now the only real opposition is coming from within,” said one source close to the Museveni family.

That interpretation cannot independently establish that Rwabwogo is seeking the presidency, and neither Rwabwogo nor Muhoozi has publicly framed their dispute as a succession contest.

But sources interviewed for this story say the intensity of the confrontation must be understood against the uncertainty surrounding Uganda’s political future after Museveni. Museveni, who was born in 1944, has ruled Uganda since 1986.

One senior National Resistance Movement official said there is genuine contestation within the First Family over the country’s eventual leadership. According to the source, one camp favours Muhoozi while another is more sympathetic to Rwabwogo.

The source placed Gen Salim Saleh, Museveni’s brother, in Muhoozi’s corner and First Lady Janet Museveni closer to Rwabwogo. The source argued that Janet’s relationship with Rwabwogo is reinforced by her closeness to her daughter Patience, Rwabwogo’s wife, whom the source described as particularly close to her mother because of their shared religiosity.

Museveni and Janet have four children; Gen Muhoozi and daughters: Patience, Natasha and Diana. Natasha is married to lawyer Edwin Karugire, who has also been close to the President and Muhoozi.

“You must view this rivalry between Muhoozi and Rwabwogo as a struggle for who should be Museveni’s heir,” the source said. The source argued that while Muhoozi considers himself the natural candidate, some family members have reservations about the kind of leadership he might provide.

**RWABWOGO TURNS TO DISSENT **

What is public, however, is the widening political difference between the two men. Over the past several months, Rwabwogo has released videos warning about the shrinking civic space, intolerance and the use of force against critics.

He has generally avoided naming Muhoozi, but the issues he has chosen to address overlap directly with controversies surrounding the army chief. In a 22-minute video released on July 18, Rwabwogo argued that repression of dissent could undermine Uganda’s ambition of building a $500 billion economy by 2040.

His argument was as much economic as political: a country that appears intolerant, unstable, or hostile to criticism may struggle to convince investors that their capital is safe.

“The country should continue to protect the right to dissent by those who oppose our views or our approach to issues… we are lying about each other, stifling public dissent,” Rwabwogo said.

“It’s the negative conversation we have in Uganda that some of the investors hear, listen and choose to go elsewhere.” He went further.

“In a true democracy, dissent and bad media never end; it is only reduced by consistent good communication from those who hold power… We must keep the country communicating without fear… we must keep good publicity of Uganda and dignified treatment of those who offend us,” he said.

His comments came against a backdrop of arrests and growing concern over the treatment of critics. Former Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago had been arrested and later charged with misprision of treason.

Speaking to The Observer from Luzira prison, Lukwago said that while being held incommunicado, he was questioned about his intention to serve court papers on Muhoozi in a case filed by Dr Kizza Besigye over the alleged violation of his rights following his abduction from Nairobi, Kenya.

Journalist Timothy Kalyegira was also arrested and remanded to Luzira prison for allegedly broadcasting without a licence. After his release, Kalyegira said Rwabwogo had visited him in prison. Rwabwogo argued that force should not be the government’s first answer to criticism.

“We grow by listening to each other and by dissent,” he said.

He explained that when attacked personally, he had several options: ignore what was said, respond where he believed there was substance, or go to court where he felt legally wronged.

“We should work more to talk to each other, for the rule of law and use less force. He who has power always sets the tone of the conversation for the one who does not,” he said.

A few weeks earlier, in a 33-minute video released on June 27, Rwabwogo had raised an even more politically sensitive concern: what he called a leadership deficit inside the NRM.

“Our KMR [Key Man Risk] is President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, and we must protect him from wrong and unthinking characters who are undermining the greater good,” he said.

Rwabwogo credited Museveni with holding Uganda together after decades of instability but warned against any group attempting to monopolize access to him or claim to act in his name.

“No one group should seek to monopolize him or to pretend to act on his behalf,” he said.

His warning went directly to the NRM’s future. Unless the ruling movement rebuilt its moral and principled foundation while Museveni was still in charge, Rwabwogo argued, the situation could become worse after him. He also criticized violence during internal NRM elections.

“There were groups in the last election in the Movement, dressed in military uniform beating up people, invading polling stations in some of the constituencies, shooting and dispersing voters openly,” he said.

“We have lost the moral courage to call out bad behaviour in public institutions.” For Rwabwogo, the answer was reform.

“The movement in the past has resisted dictatorship, it has fought insecurity, it has protected human rights… now resistance needs to be attached to reform,” he said.

**THE TRUCE COLLAPSES **

Whether those comments provoked Muhoozi is not established. But by late August, the ceasefire was over. Muhoozi had spent almost a month away from X after his July 27 posts following a trip to Rwanda.

When he returned on August 26, much of his attention turned to Rwabwogo and PACEID. He said he was not afraid to arrest Rwabwogo and listed only four people whom he said he could not arrest: President Museveni, Janet Museveni, Gen Salim Saleh and his aunt, Jovia Saleh.

The confrontation had already moved beyond words. Matthew Bagonza, a senior PACEID official and Rwabwogo aide, had been arrested. Muhoozi subsequently published a photograph of Bagonza without a shirt on social media and said he was “in the basement learning Swahili”.

Rwabwogo condemned the treatment as a violation of human dignity.

“In the record of President Museveni, there is no arbitrary arrest,” Rwabwogo said in a video response. He said he had spoken to Museveni about Bagonza.

“I met the President, and he told me he was not aware, given no order for the arrest of this officer,” Rwabwogo said.

His larger argument was that whatever accusations were being made, the state had to follow the law.

“Any person is a candidate for arrest whether it is a false allegation or the truth. What we want is to follow the due court process. Let’s stick to the constitution; our behaviour needs to match what the law and the text say,” he said.

Rwabwogo also rejected Muhoozi’s assertion that PACEID was an illegal organization.

“The President who appointed us, who gave us the mandate and renewed it by allocating us to the Office of the President in 2022, is the only one who can say you are no longer in operation,” he said.

Rwabwogo said he had asked Museveni directly whether PACEID had been terminated and that the President told him he had issued no such order.

“We are extremely transparent people; we don’t hide what we do,” Rwabwogo said.

“We don’t speak behind anybody’s back.” PACEID has separately maintained publicly that it remains operational and committed to Uganda’s export programme.

**MORE THAN A FAMILY QUARREL **

That is what makes the confrontation politically significant. Muhoozi is not simply Museveni’s son. He commands Uganda’s armed forces and has for years been at the centre of speculation about the country’s post-Museveni leadership.

Rwabwogo is not simply his brother-in-law. He works within the presidency, heads an economic advisory body, and has increasingly inserted himself into debates about the rule of law, political tolerance, and the future character of the NRM.

When two figures so close to the centre of power publicly dispute who has authority to order arrests, determine the status of a presidential committee and speak in the President’s name, the quarrel stops being merely personal.

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