What you need to know about the 2026 US midterm elections

Early voting has been underway for weeks ahead of the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, when US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country.

Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president. But for anyone who thinks they lack drama or importance this year, consider these two statistics:

More than 100 million people will likely cast ballots in this year's midterm voting if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022; and as of 12 October, a record $3.8 billion has been spent on political advertisements aired so far. Top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, which tracks the activity.

Elon Musk alone has spent about $366 million to support Republicans, according to campaign finance records.

Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races. For example, more than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election.

Control of Congress at stake

Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the US Congress.

Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control.

Democrats are also fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They must net four additional seats to get control. Ten races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide the outcome.

Can midterms affect the presidency?

Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress. In 2026, that means President Donald Trump and his Republicans, who control the US Senate and House of Representatives, face perilous political headwinds.

The midterms can give voters an opportunity to grade the president's performance and may trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks.

Midterm election results can also give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028.

What are polls showing?

Trump's approval rating is at an all-time low of 32 percent, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to affect the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans.

At the same time, evidence suggests Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans. If early voting trends continue, it could point to a Democratic win in November.

There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump's immigration enforcement tactics.

However, a Democratic landslide is far from assured. Republicans could benefit from continued scepticism toward Democrats, a Republican spending advantage in campaigns, and moderate voters' fears over some left-wing primary wins.

Recent midterm history

Recent history shows the shockwaves a midterm election can produce.

In the 2010 midterms, during Barack Obama's Democratic presidency, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama's landmark healthcare reform legislation. Democrats lost their majority. In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.

Obama lamented the Republican wave as a "shellacking" at the time. He then faced Republican demands for significant cuts to non-defence spending.

Democrats returned the favour in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net 40 House seats but lost a net 2 Senate seats.

This year's elections also include races for governors in 39 of the 50 states and elections for seats in state-level legislative bodies in nearly every state.

Currently, Republicans control 55 percent of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8 percent, according to Ballotpedia.

Who will be speaker?

If Democrats win the House, the next speaker, second in line for the presidency after the vice president, is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York. He is currently the Democratic leader of the House.

Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to launch investigations into a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates. Jeffries has repeatedly said Democrats would look into what he has called "unprecedented levels of corruption" during the Trump administration.

Jeffries also would steer Democrats' legislative priorities through the House. He has said Democrats would focus on making healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other costs more affordable.

A Republican win, on the other hand, would keep the speaker's gavel in that party's hands, either with current speaker Mike Johnson or whichever Republican prevails if he is challenged. Republican priorities are likely to focus on additional tax cuts, major increases in defence spending, and deeper cuts to the social safety net, building on Trump's 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill".

Marquee races

Among the most-watched House races are Republican Representative Mike Lawler's bid for reelection to a New York district that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won in her 2024 presidential campaign and an open seat in a Nebraska swing district where farmers and truckers face sharply higher fuel prices as a result of the US war against Iran.

Also high on Democrats' list of House seats they hope to take from Republicans are two in Pennsylvania and one in New Jersey.

Overall, questions remain about whether Trump will try to meddle in elections, which 50 individual states administer.

Since 2020, he has repeatedly insisted there is widespread cheating in US elections, despite a lack of evidence. State election officials and Democrats in Congress have been preparing for possible legal challenges to any moves by his administration to try to intervene.