Estimates place corruption's broader economic cost as high as R1.5 trillion, to which must be added the much more fundamental costs of corruption carried by people in weakened forms of government.
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For more than three decades, South Africa's democracy has spent trillions of rand building houses, schools, hospitals and infrastructure, educating children and extending basic services to millions of people.
But some public money never did the work it was meant to do.
The cost of corruption is usually expressed in billions of rand; at that scale, the numbers become almost abstract. Yet public money represents something tangible: a house that could have been built, a classroom that could have accommodated children, a meal that could have staved off hunger or spending that could have supported jobs.
"State capture worsens an already ailing economy. The corruption that has been revealed by state capture has weakened the state's capacity to perform efficiently for its citizens; this negatively affects progress towards development goals such as economic growth, addressing unemployment, reducing poverty and inequality, attracting investments, and strengthening the quality of institutions," University of Pretoria economics senior lecturer Dr Carolyn Chisadza said during a 2022 discussion on the findings of the Zondo Commission.
Putting an exact price on that damage is far harder. One figure that has followed South Africa for years is an estimate that as much as 20% of public procurement expenditure could be lost through corruption, overpayment and other procurement failures.
The figure was cited in government circles more than a decade ago, but its underlying empirical basis has subsequently been questioned — it cannot be treated as evidence that 20 cents of every rand government spends on procurement is stolen.
Government procurement is now estimated at around R1 trillion a year. Applied to expenditure of that magnitude, the contested 20% assumption would imply around R200 billion a year being lost to corruption, inflated prices and other procurement failures.
Taking that exercise back to 1994 produces a far bigger number. Using available procurement benchmarks and extrapolating backwards based on their growth trend, *IOL *modelled cumulative procurement expenditure over the democratic period and then applied the historically cited 20% assumption. That puts the potential loss at roughly R2.1 trillion.
This is not an estimate of how much South Africa actually lost to corruption: consistent procurement figures are not available for the entire period, and the earlier spending figures are modelled rather than recorded, and the 20% assumption itself is contested. It is a counterfactual showing the possible scale of what could have been lost if that assumption were broadly correct.
Hennie van Vuuren, then a research associate at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, has previously warned that focusing solely on the rand value can obscure the real damage. "Our constant need to define corruption in monetary terms ignores the much more fundamental costs of corruption — carried by individuals in weakened forms of government."
Government procurement is now estimated at around R1 trillion a year.
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Using desktop research, at the government's published subsidy quantum of R255,364 for a standard Breaking New Ground house, R2.1 trillion is equivalent to roughly 8.2 million government-subsidised homes.
Using the roughly R1.2 million average cost implied by a current Northern Cape education infrastructure programme as an indicative benchmark, the same amount could fund around 1.7 million ordinary classrooms.
Based on R48 million as the cost of a recent clinic project as an indicative benchmark, R2.1 trillion represents roughly 43,750 clinics.
Around R11 billion has been allocated to the National School Nutrition Programme in 2026/27, providing meals to more than 9.9 million learners. At that spending level, R2.1 trillion is equivalent to about 191 years of the entire national school feeding programme.
At R50 a meal, it is 42 billion family meals.
Research by the Institute for Economic Justice estimated in 2020 that R1 billion in additional spending could generate R1.68 billion in additional income and about 6,900 jobs through direct, indirect and induced effects. Applied purely illustratively to R2.1 trillion, that is equivalent to economic activity supporting about 14.5 million jobs.
That does not mean corruption cost South Africa 14.5 million jobs. The calculation applies an economic multiplier to a hypothetical R2.1 trillion loss accumulated over more than three decades and is intended only to illustrate the potential scale of the economic opportunity forgone.
These are alternatives, not a shopping list — the same R2.1 trillion could not simultaneously have built 8.2 million houses, 1.7 million classrooms and 43,750 clinics while feeding millions of children for two centuries and supporting 14.5 million jobs. The underlying costs come from programmes and projects at different points in time.
There is, however, a much firmer number against which to test the scale of what corruption has cost.
The Zondo Commission estimated that around R57 billion in state expenditure was tainted by state capture, with more than 97% linked to Transnet and Eskom, and that the Gupta enterprise received at least R15 billion.
The Zondo Commission estimated that around R57 billion in state expenditure was tainted by state capture.
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The government has acknowledged that determining the total loss remains difficult, but R57.3 billion is equivalent to roughly 224,500 government-subsidised homes, or about 47,000 ordinary classrooms.
That figure is particularly striking because the Department of Basic Education has identified a national need for about 43,700 additional classrooms to address overcrowding. On the indicative provincial cost, the money implicated in state capture would exceed the cost of addressing that entire identified shortage.
Clinic costs vary substantially by size, location and specification, but using R48 million for a recent clinic project as an indicative benchmark, R57.3 billion represents roughly 1,200 clinics.
Around R11 billion has been allocated to the National School Nutrition Programme in 2026/27, providing meals to more than 9.9 million learners. At that spending level, R57.3 billion is equivalent to more than five years of the entire national school feeding programme.
Pravin Gordhan testified before the Zondo Commission that the total economic impact of state capture could have been as much as R500 billion.
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Sean Gossel, senior lecturer at the UCT Graduate School of Business, has described the link between corruption and services directly.
"The effect of this corruption is that the capital allocated for service delivery is wasted, the private sector is crowded out, and the monopolising positions of dysfunctional state-owned enterprises distort the economy," he said.
As looting through state capture and municipal corruption intensifies, Gossel noted, service provision declines.
Applying the same IEJ estimate to R57.3 billion is equivalent to economic activity supporting almost 400,000 jobs — though that does not mean state capture caused the loss of 400,000 jobs.
Jobs are another measure of the opportunity represented by the same R57.3 billion, not something that can be added to the houses, classrooms, clinics or meals.
Building a house requires builders, bricks, cement, windows, plumbing and transport. Suppliers earn revenue, workers earn wages and some of those wages are spent elsewhere in the economy.
The original rand therefore has consequences beyond the asset it purchases — which is one reason estimates of the wider economic damage caused by state capture are so much larger than the R57 billion identified through the Commission's work.
Pravin Gordhan testified before the Zondo Commission that the total economic impact of state capture could have been as much as R500 billion.
Other estimates have placed its broader economic cost as high as R1.5 trillion — a figure that should not be interpreted as R1.5 trillion stolen from the fiscus or as a pot of money that could instead have bought millions of houses.
It attempts to account for a much wider range of damage: direct corruption losses and kickbacks, ballooning debt, weaker economic growth and lost tax revenue.
The impact on growth may have been the most far-reaching damage of all. In 2019, South African Reserve Bank economist David Fowkes said that, given the country's available labour and infrastructure investment, economic growth in a normally functioning economy should have been above 4%.
Instead, South Africa recorded little growth, which he described as evidence of what state capture looked like: major investment without the economic growth that should have followed.
The National Anti-Corruption Advisory Council has subsequently characterised his estimate as state capture having an economic impact equivalent to 4% of GDP growth.
In 2019, South African Reserve Bank economist David Fowkes said that, given the country's available labour and infrastructure investment, economic growth in a normally functioning economy should have been above 4%.
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President Cyril Ramaphosa made a similar distinction in June, saying the Commission estimated that more than R57 billion in public funds was lost through state capture, but that the true economic cost was far greater because it included "lost investment, higher borrowing costs, collapsed institutions, and foregone growth and jobs".
More than R17 billion linked to the Commission's work had by then been recovered.
The Constitutional Court has described why corruption's effects spread beyond the original transaction. "When corruption and organised crime flourish, sustainable development and economic growth are stunted. And in turn, the stability and security of society is put at risk."
South Africa's democracy has delivered millions of homes and electricity connections, expanded access to water, education and social support, and built infrastructure across the country.
The question is not whether democracy delivered. It is how much more it might have delivered if less of the money entrusted to the State had disappeared through corruption and procurement abuse — because the money was not just money.
It was houses, classrooms, clinics, food and jobs.
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