Dangote’s ship-fuel exports fall as global prices jump 76% and worldwide shortage looms

• A global shortage of fuel oil used by ships and power plants is emerging as wars disrupt refineries and tanker movements.
• Reuters reported that Dangote refinery’s fuel-oil exports have declined as the facility increases shipments of petrol, diesel and jet fuel.
• The principal low-sulphur marine fuel has risen 76% since the Iran conflict began, reaching almost $825 a tonne in Singapore.
• The shift could increase shipping costs, but there is no evidence yet that Dangote’s export decline has directly raised African freight rates.

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has reduced exports of fuel oil used by ships and power plants as a worldwide shortage pushes the price of the product sharply higher.

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    *Reuters* reported on Monday that the $20 billion refinery has been exporting more petrol, diesel and jet fuel while its shipments of fuel oil have declined.

The changing product mix comes as conflicts involving Iran and Russia disrupt crude processing and tanker movements, forcing refiners to concentrate on fuels that currently offer stronger returns.

Very-low-sulphur fuel oil, the main marine fuel used to comply with international emissions rules, reached almost $825 per tonne in Singapore on 1 September. That represents a 76% increase since the Iran conflict began, compared with an approximately 40% rise in Brent crude over the same period.

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The movement is significant because fuel is one of the largest expenses faced by shipping companies. More expensive marine fuel can eventually feed into the cost of transporting containers, food, vehicles and machinery to African ports.

However, there is no strong evidence that shows that Dangote’s production choices have directly increased African shipping rates.

    **Why the market is tightening**


    The global fuel-oil market is expected to record a deficit of approximately 218,000 barrels a day during the third quarter, according to industry estimates cited by *Reuters*. That compares with a deficit of only 6,000 barrels a day during the corresponding period last year.

Inventories across Singapore, Fujairah and north-west Europe are about 30% below their three-year seasonal averages.

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Middle Eastern exports fell 45% between March and August from the corresponding period in 2025, while attacks on Russian refineries and restrictions on Gulf tanker traffic reduced additional supplies.

Refiners can alter how they operate their facilities to maximise production of petrol, diesel or jet fuel when those products offer better margins. More complex refineries can also reprocess heavier fuel oil into lighter and more valuable products.

It is not yet clear whether Dangote is exporting less fuel oil because it is deliberately upgrading more of the product internally, because its crude supply has changed or because other fuels currently offer better commercial returns.

Dangote refinery did not announce the decline itself, and detailed monthly volumes were not publicly disclosed in the available report.

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    **Dangote’s growing influence**

The development shows how quickly Dangote has become a consequential participant in international fuel markets.

Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports increased from 46,000 barrels a day in 2023 to approximately 350,000 barrels a day during the second quarter of 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration figures based on Vortexa shipping data.

Shipments to Europe reached 130,000 barrels a day during the quarter, while exports to other African countries approached 120,000 barrels a day.

Dangote has been particularly successful in jet fuel. The refinery became a leading supplier to Europe as wars and refinery disruptions changed established international trading routes.

Its latest reduction in fuel-oil exports does not mean the refinery is producing or exporting less fuel overall. It instead points to a change in the composition of its shipments at a time when marine-fuel supplies are under growing pressure.