We lack capacity to supply Dangote Refinery 700,000bpd, FG admits

•PSC, royalties, contracts limit availability

•Rules out discounted crude for refiners

By Adewale Sanyaolu

The Federal Government has admitted that Nigeria lacks sufficient freely available crude oil to meet the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s daily requirement of 700,000 barrels, despite efforts to increase production and curb oil theft.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, made the disclosure during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today at the weekend. The disclosure comes amid renewed debate over government intervention in the petroleum market, with proposals for production subsidies, the 30-days petrol discount and other measures to support domestic refining and reduce the cost of petroleum products.

He explained that Nigeria’s total crude oil production does not translate into an equivalent volume available for allocation by the government.

Oyedele said Nigeria’s crude oil production of about 1.8 million barrels per day was shared among parties operating under production-sharing contracts and joint ventures, while production costs, royalties and other obligations further reduced the volume available to the government.

“Under the production-sharing contract and joint venture, they share these things, and the ratios vary. Let’s say roughly 45:55,” he said.

He explained that oil producers first recover eligible production costs through cost oil, while royalties and contractual sharing arrangements also determine the quantity ultimately accruing to the government.

“The long and short of what I’m telling you is whatever is left for Nigeria, we exhaust it almost entirely because of fuel subsidy,” he said. According to the minister, the situation was particularly severe before President Bola Tinubu introduced the economic reforms in May 2023, when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, which holds the country’s crude on its behalf, had less than 100,000 barrels of freely available crude remaining.

He said the government had exhausted much of its revenue and resorted to printing money before turning to future crude oil production to secure commitments used to finance present consumption.

“That was a ticking time bomb,” Oyedele said, describing the arrangement under which future oil production was committed to support current fuel consumption.

The minister, however, acknowledged improvements following increased production, efforts to reduce crude oil theft and the renegotiation of some existing commitments that had tied down the country’s crude.

He cited comments by business leader Tony Elumelu, who had previously expressed frustration over the scale of crude oil theft in Nigeria, and subsequently reported an improvement in the situation.

Despite these gains, Oyedele said the country was yet to attain the level of freely available crude required to supply the Dangote refinery with its full daily requirement.

“But we are still not at the point where we can give Dangote 700,000 barrels,” he said.

The minister dismissed proposals for the government to supply the refinery with discounted crude or at production cost, arguing that such proposals failed to recognise the constraints on the volume of oil available for allocation.

“We don’t have enough to service Dangote. Dangote imports crude,” he said.

He added that the naira-for-crude arrangement introduced by the Federal Government had helped provide some stability but had not eliminated the supply constraints.

According to him, sustained increases in crude oil production and the release of additional barrels from existing commitments would eventually enable Nigeria to meet the requirements of Dangote and other domestic refiners.

“As we ramp up production and we free up some barrels, we’ll get to a point where we’ll be able to give Dangote everything he wants and other refiners will be able to get enough,” he said.

Oyedele also expressed hope that Nigeria would eventually refine all the crude oil it produces domestically and export refined petroleum products rather than crude.

The disclosure comes amid renewed debate over government intervention in the petroleum market, with proposals for production subsidies and other measures to support domestic refining and reduce the cost of petroleum products.

Oyedele further maintained that achieving that ambition will depend not only on the expansion of refining capacity but also on sustained growth in crude oil production and the availability of additional volumes for domestic processing.

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