World Bank says Zimbabwe can attain upper-middle-income status by 2030

Nelson Gahadza

Senior Business Reporter

Zimbabwe’s ambition to become an upper-middle-income economy by 2030 is achievable, but only if the Government fully and consistently implements a broad reform programme aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, attracting investment, and creating productive jobs, the World Bank has said.

Presenting the latest Zimbabwe Country Growth and Jobs report, Mr Victor Steenbergen, Senior Country Economist for Zimbabwe at the World Bank, said that implementation of a three-pillar reform agenda could significantly accelerate the country’s economic transformation, allowing Zimbabwe to attain upper-middle-income status six years earlier than under a business-as-usual scenario.

The report states that the reforms could lift real gross domestic product by 10.7 percent above the baseline by 2030, with the gap widening to 26.9 percent by 2040.

The findings provide fresh support for the Government’s Vision 2030 target, which seeks to transform Zimbabwe into an upper-middle-income economy by the end of the decade.

“Most significantly, Zimbabwe could reach upper-middle-income status by 2030—six years ahead of the business-as-usual trajectory,” the World Bank said.

“This demonstrates that the Government of Zimbabwe’s Vision 2030 goal of achieving UMIC by 2030 is achievable. Yet, it assumes decisive, coordinated execution sustained over multiple years.”

The World Bank, however, cautioned that the projected gains were conditional on full implementation of reforms across all three pillars, warning that maintaining momentum over several years would be a major undertaking.

The reforms are also expected to have a substantial impact on employment.

According to the report, the reform scenario could generate 2.7 million more and better job equivalents by 2040 compared with the baseline, combining new employment with real wage gains for existing workers.

Real earnings per worker are projected to rise by more than 30 percent by 2040 under the reform scenario.

The report stresses that economic growth alone would not be sufficient to achieve these employment gains; productive firms are required to expand and absorb workers currently concentrated in lower-productivity activities.

The first pillar centres on consolidating macroeconomic stability and scaling up infrastructure investment, particularly in energy, followed by transport, irrigation, and agricultural infrastructure.

Clearing Zimbabwe’s arrears to multilateral lenders, including the World Bank, African Development Bank, and European Investment Bank, and resolving debt sustainability challenges are identified as immediate priorities.

The second pillar focuses on regulatory reform, including simplifying fees, permits, and tax rules, while improving governance and accountability within the public sector.

The third pillar seeks to strengthen the foundations for private investment through improved governance, property rights, commercial justice, and financial-sector deepening, alongside measures to attract foreign direct investment.

The World Bank identified agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and tourism as sectors with significant potential to drive growth and quality job creation.

Agriculture could benefit from expanded irrigation, rehabilitated feeder roads, and secure, transferable land titles, while mining would require stronger investment protections, improved foreign currency repatriation, and reliable power and rail infrastructure.

Manufacturing could gain from improved electricity supply, lower input costs, and simplified business regulation, while tourism could benefit from streamlined licensing, greater access to finance, and a more stable investment environment.

The World Bank said Zimbabwe had the natural resources, human capital, and economic potential to realise its Vision 2030 ambition, but warned that success would depend on sustained implementation and avoiding policy reversals, which have disrupted previous stabilisation efforts.