Gold industry is next frontier of our economic transformation

FILE Students of Mbarara University Science of Technology visiting Wagagai Mining plant

Uganda’s gold story has reached a defining moment.

The question is no longer whether the country has gold, or whether the mineral can earn foreign exchange. It is whether Uganda can turn a valuable natural resource into a wider engine of productive growth.

That question sits squarely within government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which seeks to expand Uganda’s economy from about $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040. That ambition is anchored in four priority areas; agro-industrialization, tourism, minerals development, and science, technology and innovation, collectively known as ATMS.

Gold, therefore, matters not as an isolated commodity story, but as part of a deliberate national shift towards higher productivity, value addition, exports and private investment.

If minerals development is to help deliver tenfold growth, Uganda must look beyond the headline value of what lies underground and focus on the productive economy that can be built around it. In 2025, government reporting identified gold as Uganda’s leading export, accounting for 76.6 per cent of total export earnings.

This is a remarkable shift in a national story long associated with agriculture, trade and manufacturing, and more recently oil and gas. Yet export receipts alone should not be mistaken for broad-based development.

The larger opportunity is to retain more value locally, deepen connections with other ATMS sectors and spread the gains across the economy. The public discussion must also become more disciplined.

Widely quoted estimates of millions of tonnes of gold-bearing ore and multi-trillion-dollar value have generated understandable excitement. But ore is not the same as recoverable gold.

Serious valuation depends on verified grades, metallurgical recovery, operating and capital costs, mine design and internationally recognised resource classification. Public confidence is better served by credible geology and transparent economics than by spectacular numbers without sufficient context.

The Wagagai project in Busia offers a more useful illustration. The Uganda Investment Authority has reported about 30 million tonnes of proven ore at an average grade of 0.81 grammes per ton.

That indicates significant contained gold before processing losses and costs are considered. Uganda’s gold opportunity, however, is not confined to one large project. Mining activity extends across several parts of the country and supports thousands of people, including artisanal and small-scale miners, traders, processors, transporters and local service providers.

The Bank of Uganda’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme adds another important dimension. By seeking to purchase qualifying domestically mined gold through licensed and traceable channels, the programme can help connect mineral production to the country’s reserves.

Financial institutions also have a role to play, though not by chasing speculative exposure. Responsible financing should follow verified production and transparent transactions.

Licensed operators with credible mineral origin, dependable offtake arrangements, monitored payment flows, suitable insurance and independent quality verification can be supported through working capital, equipment finance, payments, foreign exchange and transaction banking.

In this way, finance becomes an enabler of the Tenfold Growth Strategy, helping legitimate enterprises invest, formalise and scale. In addition, tourism can benefit where mining heritage and regional infrastructure are responsibly developed.

Agro-industrial communities can gain from better roads, power, markets and local enterprise. This is the deeper promise of ATMS: mutually reinforcing sectors, rather than four separate investment silos.

None of this, however, removes the risks. Smuggling, weak traceability, mercury use, unsafe working conditions, environmental damage and illicit finance can erode both economic value and international confidence.

Uganda ultimately will need consistent enforcement, credible data, responsible environmental stewardship and institutions capable of applying the rules fairly. Gold can become an important pillar of Uganda’s journey towards a $500 billion economy.

But the measure of success will not be the size of an estimate, the shine of an export bar or the value of a single year’s receipts.

It will be what the country builds above ground: skilled people, responsible enterprises, trusted institutions, resilient reserves and meaningful local participation. That is how minerals development can reinforce the wider ATMS agenda, and how a mineral endowment becomes enduring national wealth. The measure of success will be what Uganda builds above ground.

The author works with Stanbic Bank .

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