Is Gen. Salim Saleh The Solution to Uganda’s Succession Dilemma?

By Agaba Muzoora

***“A prospective leader is judged not only by what he promises to do with power, but also by how he uses whatever power he already possesses.” –Anonymous ***

President Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda since 1986, making it a non-stop four decade rule in January this year. At the same time, this year he started another 5-year term at the age of 82, which runs up to 2030 when he will be 87. Many Ugandans believe that at this age his physical strength will have declined tremendously, due to age, that his capacity to run presidential duties will be seriously diminished. Consequently, increasingly, many Ugandans believe that the President should not lead Uganda beyond 2031. As a result, discussion about his possible successor and how the post-Museveni transition should be managed intensifies every day in the public and across the political spectrum.

Uganda’s challenge, however, is not simply who will succeed President Museveni but, most importantly, how that person will manage the transition. The distinction is very important. The country needs a transitional leader capable of preserving stability while preparing the ground for a new political generation. Most Ugandans would like to preserve the gains of the Museveni era, particularly, peace, security, economic stability and national cohesion. At the same time, many desire reforms, including stronger action against corruption in government, the restoration of greater normalcy and credibility to electoral processes, which, in the eyes of many critics, have become increasingly militarized; stronger and more independent state institutions; as well as broader social and economic reforms. The next leader must therefore deliver a delicate balance of continuity without stagnation and reform without instability.

Among the potential successors, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has been the most explicit about his ambitions. In August 2026, he publicly declared his intention to contest for the presidency in 2031, and his supporters view him as representing generational renewal within the NRM. However, his candidacy has also generated concerns. His common public statements, confrontational style to dealing with descent, and association with controversial actions against some opposition figures have created an image many Ugandans find difficult to reconcile with the role of a unifying national leader Museveni’s successor needs to be.

Some supporters argue that leadership qualities cannot be judged solely by a person’s social media commentary and that it would be unfair to assess a future presidency based only on present conduct. However, when commentary is followed by action, it becomes increasingly difficult to separate an online persona from the individual behind it. At the very least, that is the perception created in the public eye. Politics, however, is often shaped by expectations, and expectations are largely formed by perceptions. Consequently the public is increasingly unsure about the kind of leadership Gen. Muhoozi would provide during a sensitive national transition. That uncertainty explains why the succession debate remains unresolved.

Luckily for Uganda, however, on the sidelines, there is a veteran of the liberation struggle, a key figure in the NRM’s history, and a respected member of the security establishment who many Ugandans believe can sail Uganda most comfortably in the mucky waters of transition. He occupies a unique position in Uganda’s political landscape and many analysts call him the de facto number two. His name is Gen. Salim Saleh, as he is popularly known.

Unlike his nephew, Gen. Muhoozi, Gen. Saleh has never publicly expressed presidential ambitions or built a political movement around himself. Instead, he has largely focused on business, wealth creation initiatives, and development projects. While some view this as disinterest, others see it as evidence of maturity. Unlike many politicians, Saleh does not appear driven by the pursuit of office. He possesses influence without constantly seeking visibility and exercises power without constantly displaying it. He projects the image of a leader motivated more by problem-solving than personal ambition, a quality that strengthens his appeal as the most desirable transitional leader.

More importantly, Saleh enjoys credibility across the military, the NRM, the business community, and even sections of the opposition. Within the UPDF, he is respected for his historical role in building the force. Within the ruling party, he is widely regarded as a mediator. Few public figures command trust across such varied constituencies, making bridge-building one of his greatest assets.

A transitional leader’s task would be to safeguard stability, strengthen institutions, and prepare the country for a more competitive political future. This requires someone who can speak to the liberation generation, younger leaders seeking renewal, the ruling party, the opposition, and the security establishment converging them around a common goal of perpetuating the country’s stability. Few figures command relationships across all these groups. Gen. Saleh leads them all.

Critics of family succession politics may argue that replacing one member of the First Family with another is not the transition Uganda needs. That may be a valid concern. Yet the case for Saleh is not primarily about family loyalty. It is about function. The argument is that Uganda needs a trusted transitional leader capable of guiding the country from a four-decade personalized political system toward stronger institutions and constitutionalism. Saleh’s experience, networks, and relatively conciliatory style make him particularly well suited for such a role.

Luckily, Uganda would not be without precedent in this path. The successful transition of Cuba from Castrol’s 49-year rule provides a reassuring example in many aspects. Following Fidel Castro’s illness in 2006, his young brother Raúl Castro oversaw a stable transition before eventually handing power to a younger-generation, non-family member leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel in 2018. The Cuban experience shows how a trusted elder, in spite of his family relations, can provide continuity while grooming the younger generation for the big task of carrying forward the country. Equally in Uganda, the Muhoozi generation would stand to benefit from such guidance from an elder of General Saleh’s experience and leadership acumen before getting fully ready to take charge of the country’s affairs.

This is, however, not to say that Gen. Saleh harbors presidential ambitions. Rather, the main proposition of this article is that the national succession/transition conversation should not be limited to those who have actively expressed interest. For, sometimes, the person best suited for a task is not the one campaigning for it.

Because of what he potentially brings to the table, Ugandans should seriously consider encouraging Gen. Salim Saleh to prepare himself for the role of Transitional President, not as a candidate of extending of family rule but as the most qualified statesman with the highest potential bridge between the Museveni era and a more institutionalized future in a smooth inclusive transition.

The writer is a citizen of Uganda.

Email: [email protected]

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