eNCA poll puts ANC and DA close in Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni

The ANC and DA are closely matched in Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni in newly published eNCA–MarkData polling, with the gaps between them smaller than the survey’s reported margins of error.

The broadcaster released the two metro result tables on Sunday, 11 October. They measure voting intentions recorded during interviews in August and September, rather than votes cast or a guaranteed election outcome.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA recorded 37.7% and the ANC 37.4%, a difference of 0.3 percentage points. The EFF recorded 8%, followed by the Patriotic Alliance on 4%, ActionSA on 3.4% and the MK Party on 3.2%.

The Ekurhuleni table puts the DA at 31.2% and the ANC at 29.4%, a gap of 1.8 percentage points. The MK Party recorded 11.5%, the EFF 9.2%, ActionSA 6.1% and the Freedom Front Plus 5.2%.

eNCA’s methodology statement reports samples of 994 respondents in Nelson Mandela Bay and 1,019 in Ekurhuleni. It gives margins of error at a 95% confidence level of ±3.11 and ±3.07 percentage points respectively.

Those margins call for caution when interpreting the small differences between the two largest parties. Neither table establishes who will win control of a municipality.

MarkData interviewed 6,113 registered voters aged 18 and older who intended to vote, across six metros. The research combined personal and telephone interviews in respondents’ preferred languages. Results were weighted using population and voter-registration information, including registration and voting-intention data collected in the survey.

The published voting-intention tables do not list a separate undecided category or explain whether undecided responses were excluded or allocated. Their percentages should therefore be read alongside that disclosure limit.