Auleria Wakudumo Namibia is bracing for a hotter and drier-than-normal 2026/27 rainfall season. Rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions are expected to bring above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall between October and March. The Namibia Meteorological Service has warned the public, key sectors and stakeholders to prepare for potentially challenging weather conditions as the country enters its... The post Impending El Niño signals drought appeared first on New Era .
Auleria Wakudumo
Namibia is bracing for a hotter and drier-than-normal 2026/27 rainfall season.
Rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions are expected to bring above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall between October and March.
The Namibia Meteorological Service has warned the public, key sectors and stakeholders to prepare for potentially challenging weather conditions as the country enters its main rainfall season.
In a media release issued last week, the service said its downscaled regional climate models indicate a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures combined with below-average rainfall across Namibia from October 2026 to March 2027.
The forecast comes as El Niño conditions over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to intensify rapidly.
El Niño strengthens
According to the meteorological service, sea surface temperature anomalies reached the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C between April and June 2026, marking the onset of an active El Niño phase.
The anomalies then increased to 1.0°C between May and July, indicating a weak El Niño.
However, the phenomenon has strengthened considerably since then. By the second week of August, the anomaly had risen to 1.8°C.
The meteorological service said major global climate prediction centres unanimously expect the El Niño event to strengthen further in the coming months.
The event could potentially exceed 3.0°C, which would place it in the ‘very strong’ El Niño category.
The development is of particular concern to Namibia because historical records and internal studies conducted by the meteorological service show that El Niño events consistently suppress rainfall across the country.
In contrast, La Niña events are associated with increased rainfall.
Agriculture at risk
The anticipated drier conditions could have implications for agriculture, livestock, water resources and communities that depend on seasonal rainfall.
Farmers may face difficult decisions regarding planting and livestock management if rainfall remains below normal, while higher temperatures could increase pressure on available water resources.
The forecast is therefore expected to be important for agricultural planning, disaster preparedness and resource management ahead of the 2026/27 season.
The meteorological service said an analogue case analysis indicates that the development of the current El Niño event closely mirrors the 2023/24 season.
The 2023/24 season will consequently serve as a useful benchmark for preparedness and planning as Namibia approaches the upcoming rainfall period.
Weather monitoring continues
Despite the seasonal outlook, the meteorological service stressed the importance of following short-term and weekly weather forecasts.
It said seasonal forecasts provide an indication of the expected overall conditions, while shorter-term forecasts can provide more specific information as weather systems develop.
The service will continue monitoring atmospheric and oceanic conditions and release updated monthly seasonal bulletins.
It has urged stakeholders, sector leaders and the public to regularly follow these updates to support adaptive decision-making.
The warning comes less than a month before the start of the forecast period in October.
With the possibility of a very strong El Niño developing, authorities and communities are being encouraged to use the available climate information to prepare for the potential impacts of a hotter and drier season.
The Namibia Meteorological Service said it will continue monitoring the situation and provide updated information as new climate data becomes available.
The service encouraged all sectors to remain alert and make use of both seasonal and short-term forecasts throughout the 2026/27 rainfall season.
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