Donald Duke: Nigeria’s Population Tripled Without Economic Expansion Since Shagari Era

• Says Nigeria still operating with equivalent of Shagari-era $25bn budget

•Questions economic justification, timing of Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway

Sunday Ehigiator

Former Cross River State governor and presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has said Nigeria’s economy has effectively shrunk since the Second Republic, as government spending and productive capacity have failed to keep pace with the country’s population growth.

Duke said Nigeria was still operating around the same dollar-denominated budget recorded under former President Shehu Shagari more than four decades ago, despite the population having increased from about 76 million to an estimated 230 million.

He spoke to journalists in Abuja while assessing the country’s economic challenges, worsening cost-of-living crisis and growing social tensions.

According to him, Nigeria’s failure to address productivity over the decades was at the root of many of the challenges confronting the country.

“I think we got it wrong from independence, but as the years go by, the effects become stark. We have not addressed the issue of productivity,” he said.

Duke said the Shagari administration operated an average annual budget of about $25 billion between 1979 and 1983, when Nigeria’s population was approximately one-third of its present size.

“Today, our population, they say, is about 230 million people. We are still spending the same $25 billion that Shagari spent 46 years ago. All these trillions and trillions, by the time you convert them, you come down to the same thing.

“In essence, the economy has not grown. In fact, it has shrunk because $25 billion in 1979 or 1980 is not the same as $25 billion today.”

He said the consequences of the situation were evident in widespread poverty, unemployment, insecurity and the desperation of millions of Nigerians struggling to survive.

Duke argued that the primary responsibility of government was to create an environment in which citizens could become productive while enjoying security and access to justice.

“The essence of government is to ensure the utmost productivity of citizens within a safe and orderly environment. That is why you need security. That is why you have the judiciary. If Nigeria were to be safe and orderly and the people were productive, nobody would care whether you came from Sokoto, Calabar or somewhere else,” he said.

The former governor also questioned the economic justification and timing of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, arguing that government should prioritise projects and interventions with greater immediate economic and social impact.

“We woke up one morning and said we wanted to build a road from Lagos to Calabar. What are the economics? How many communities will it go through?

“A road is commuting infrastructure between communities. There are existing roads. What happens to those roads? What happens to the East-West Road that we have been talking about?”

He acknowledged that he would personally benefit from the coastal highway because of his connections to Lagos and Calabar, but said personal benefits should not determine public expenditure.

“I would be the happiest person because I live in Lagos and Calabar. I would be going back and forth. But even if it were the best road, with a sea view as you are going to Calabar, what is the economics of it? What is the opportunity cost?

“Maybe you can say we will do it in 10 years when we can afford it. We cannot afford it now. There are higher priorities.”

Duke cited the large number of children outside the school system and the growing population of poor Nigerians as areas requiring more urgent government intervention.

“We have the largest number of out-of-school children in the world. We have one of the largest populations of poor people, and you are building a fancy road from Victoria Island to Calabar. It does not work like that. All I am asking is that we should be honest with our people.”

The former governor further argued that economic deprivation, rather than inherent ethnic or religious intolerance, was responsible for many of the divisions within Nigerian society.

He said citizens increasingly relied on ethnic, religious and regional affiliations when they believed such connections could provide access to scarce opportunities.

“I don’t believe that we are naturally tribalistic or ethnic. We use those things because they are advantageous to us.

“We want a president or governor from our locality because we think it will give us an added advantage. But if you are getting what you need without that advantage, who cares where the governor comes from?

“When you go to a hospital, you don’t ask for a doctor from your village. You ask for the doctor who can cure you.”

Duke said Nigeria needed a collective national vision that would align public spending, infrastructure development, education and economic policy with the objective of improving productivity.

“Where are we taking this country? We don’t have a vision. We just wake up and do whatever appears important at the moment.

“The real task is to make our people productive. When inadequacy persists because we are not productive, we begin to exploit tribal and religious sentiments to get what we want.”