ZAMBIA’S 2026/27 RAINFALL FORECAST Simple Province-by-Province Explanation The SARCOF-33 forecast shows a big difference between northern and southern Zambia. Northern Zambia is generally expected to receive better rainfall, while central and southern Zambia face a greater risk of below-normal rainfall. 1. Southern Province Likely to be drier than normal. There may be less rain than […] The post ZAMBIA’S 2026/27 RAINFALL FORECAST first appeared on The Zambian Observer .
ZAMBIA’S 2026/27 RAINFALL FORECAST
Simple Province-by-Province Explanation
The SARCOF-33 forecast shows a big difference between northern and southern Zambia. Northern Zambia is generally expected to receive better rainfall, while central and southern Zambia face a greater risk of below-normal rainfall.
1. Southern Province
Likely to be drier than normal.
There may be less rain than farmers normally expect, especially from October onwards. Rain-fed crops may be at greater risk of drought and dry spells. Livestock may also have less grass and water.
Risk: High.
2. Western Province
Likely to be relatively dry.
The province is among the areas that could receive less rainfall. Farmers should prepare for dry periods and possible shortages of water and pasture.
Risk: High to moderate.
3. Lusaka Province
Rainfall may be below normal.
There could be reasonable rain at the beginning, but rainfall may become less reliable later. Rain-fed farmers should be careful about depending entirely on rainfall.
Risk: Moderate to high.
4. Central Province
Rainfall is likely to be normal to below normal.
The province may receive some good rains, but there is a greater chance of dry periods. Crops could suffer if there are long breaks between rains.
Risk: Moderate to high.
5. Eastern Province
Mixed conditions are expected.
It may receive reasonable rainfall initially, but the forecast becomes less favourable later in the season. Farmers should watch for dry spells, especially towards the beginning of 2027.
Risk: Moderate.
6. Copperbelt Province
Conditions are mixed.
The forecast does not specifically give a separate forecast for Copperbelt, but the surrounding central areas are expected to have normal to below-normal rainfall. Farmers should prepare for uneven rainfall.
Risk: Moderate.
7. North-Western Province
Generally better rainfall prospects.
The province is closer to the wetter northern part of Zambia. Rain-fed farming may have better conditions than in Southern and Western provinces, although some areas may still experience dry spells.
Risk: Low to moderate.
8. Muchinga Province
Generally favourable, especially in the north.
Northern parts are closer to the areas expected to receive more rainfall. Farming conditions could be relatively good, although rainfall may vary within the province.
Risk: Low to moderate.
9. Northern Province
One of the best areas for rainfall.
Northern Zambia is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during much of the season. This should provide good conditions for rain-fed farming. However, too much rain in some areas could cause flooding, waterlogging or crop diseases.
Risk: Low for drought.
10. Luapula Province
Generally favourable.
Like Northern Province, Luapula is in the wetter part of Zambia. Farmers are likely to have better rainfall conditions than those in the south and west.
Risk: Low for drought.
Overall Picture
Northern Zambia: More rain is likely.
Central Zambia: Rainfall may be normal or less than normal.
Southern Zambia: Less rain is likely.
Western Zambia: Greater risk of dry conditions.
January to March 2027: The dry conditions could spread across most of Zambia.
There is also a warning about higher temperatures. This means the ground may lose water faster and crops may need more water.
The key message for Zambia is: prepare for a generally difficult rainfall season in the south and centre, while the north has better prospects.
Important: This is a seasonal forecast, not a prediction that it will rain every day in the north or be dry every day in the south. Local conditions can be different. SARCOF advises users to follow national and local meteorological updates for more detailed forecasts.
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