Cedi to end year at GH¢12.20 to a US dollar – Databank Research

The Ghana cedi will end the year at GH¢12.20 to a US dollar by the end of 2026, Databank Research has stated after revising its earlier forecast downwards by 65 basis points.

It said its news decision is due to stronger foreign exchange inflows and an improving external position.

In its half-year economic outlook, it stated that the 30% Gold Off-Take Mandate under GoldBod, supported by the increase in its budget allocation from GH¢4.5 billion to GH¢5.0 billion, should boost gold mobilisation and support reserve accumulation.

“Combined with sustained repatriation of export proceeds, these factors are likely to strengthen the BoG’s forex buffers”, it explained.

Looking ahead, it pointed out that the cedi stability will hinge on the balance between reserve accumulation and timely foreign exchange intervention.

“With most major external obligations for 2026 already settled, we expect the BoG [Bank of Ghana] to maintain active market support through the September 2026 to November 2026 peak demand period, with interventions likely in the range of US$1.2 billion to US$1.5 billion. This should help smooth seasonal FX [forex] pressures while preserving a broadly stable exchange rate path that balances export and import competitiveness”, it added.

BoB to Remian Favourable

Meanwhile, the research arm of Databank Group says Ghana’s Balance of Payments (BoP) position would remain favourable, supported by sustained current account surpluses and resilient gold export earnings, Databank Research has disclosed in its half-year economic outlook.

According to the firm, it also foresees further upside from the recovery in crude oil output, which could broaden export earnings, strengthen foreign exchange inflows, and provide an additional buffer for reserve accumulation.

“At a conservative baseline of US$75 per barrel, we estimate that sustained oil production momentum will generate US$340 million to US$410 million in cumulative gross export proceeds over the final six months of 2026, structurally strengthening Ghana’s medium-term BoP resilience and anchoring central bank reserve accumulation above 5 [five] months of import cover”.