South Africa's record maize harvest provides a crucial buffer against immediate food shortages, but the looming threat of a strengthening El Niño raises concerns over agricultural output and food affordability for low-income households in 2027.
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South Africa’s record maize harvest and improved water reserves should protect against immediate food shortages, but a strengthening El Niño could reduce agricultural output and push food prices higher next year.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterised by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns and is often associated with hotter, drier conditions in southern Africa.
The country last experienced the phenomenon during the 2023/24 summer season, when drought and extreme heat cut maize production, while the severe 2015/16 El Niño provided an earlier warning of the potential consequences of a prolonged drought, when poor harvests forced the country to rely more heavily on grain imports.
The concern for households is not that maize will vanish from shop shelves, but that a poor 2026/27 harvest could make staple foods less affordable for low-income households
The risk of drier weather will coincide with the summer production season, which starts in mid-October. The Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga produce about 82% of South Africa’s commercial maize crop, much of it under dryland conditions.
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial, said the El Niño forecast “poses a huge risk to summer crops” because the weather pattern is associated with erratic, below-normal rainfall and drought in Southern Africa.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in August that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
A powerful El Niño does not guarantee a severe South African drought and the amount and timing of rain will determine the extent of crop losses.
South Africa enters the season in a stronger position than before the 2015/16 drought. Two wet seasons improved soil moisture, replenished groundwater and lifted dam levels and rain continued into May, beyond the usual summer rainfall season.
“This is a significant buffer as the replenished soil moisture, water tables and dam levels will help the sector navigate a tough season,” Makube said.
The Crop Estimates Committee’s latest forecast places the record 2025/26 commercial summer grain and oilseed crop at about 21.56 million tonnes.
The commercial maize crop is forecast at 17.36 million tonnes, the largest on record and almost 4% higher than last year. South Africa uses about 12 million tonnes of maize annually.
The harvest and carry-over stocks should cover domestic consumption and leave about three million tonnes available for export during the 2026/27 marketing year.
Regional demand could rise if El Niño depresses harvests elsewhere in southern Africa.
Makube said South Africa was unlikely to require any significant maize imports during 2026 or 2027. Imports may have to be considered beyond 2027, if El Niño persists for a second season.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, argued that open markets, rather than government intervention, offered the best defence against a future shortfall.
“South Africa will maintain open trade. We will not intervene in grain or agricultural markets, even during drought periods,” Sihlobo said.
He also argued against establishing a state-controlled strategic grain reserve.
“South Africa will also not build grain reserves, as such policies distort food markets. If the country runs into a deficit, there are ample supplies available for import from the world market,” he said.
Makube said government and industry should keep trade and logistics functioning and maintain access to seed, fertiliser, finance, storage and markets. Government should prepare support for households unable to absorb higher food prices. Smallholder farmers will also need access to finance, insurance, information and agricultural inputs.
Before planting, Makube advised farmers to consider drought and heat-tolerant seed, minimum tillage, crop rotation and soil-cover practices.
Efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting and precision use of fuel and fertiliser could limit losses. Farmers should involve financiers in seasonal planning and consider crop insurance and leaving drought-prone marginal land unplanted where yields do not justify the risk.
Livestock producers face a separate threat if dry weather damages grazing and lifts feed costs.
“For the sector, preserving feed supplies during drought remains key for the livestock industry,” Sihlobo said.
Early fodder planning could help livestock producers better manage deteriorating grazing and feed shortages.
Soil condition will determine how much of the available rain farms retain. Thorunn Wolfram, secretary of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations’ Global Soil Partnership, said healthy soils could not prevent drought or remove rainfall uncertainty, but could reduce agricultural vulnerability.
Soil cover, organic matter and erosion controls allow water to enter the ground and remain available around crop roots for longer.
The bumper harvest is already helping consumers. Statistics South Africa said food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 0.9% in July, its lowest level in more than 16 years. Cereal prices fell 2% year on year, while maize meal declined by 3.1% during July.
Those gains could reverse if the next harvest falls sharply or fuel, fertiliser and transport costs increase. Sihlobo said food inflation may “nudge up mildly” in 2027, depending on the severity of the drought.
“A poor season does not have to become a food-security crisis, but could lead to a food inflation problem as observed during the previous El Niño events,” Makube said.
“Ultimately, food security depends not only on production, but also on maintaining food availability, affordability and access.”
