Infrastructure gaps see Ethiopia airlines swallow Nigeria’s out-bound traffic

Ethiopian Airlines is capturing Nigeria’s outbound market by flying directly into regional hubs, while local airlines struggle with infrastructure such as capacity, transit hubs and policy issues.

Data from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) highlights a structural imbalance in the international passenger market. In 2024, only five of Nigeria’s 13 domestic airlines- Air Peace, Ibom Air, United Nigeria, ValueJet, and Overland- processed international traffic. Combined, these indigenous carriers accounted for a meagre 6.89 percent of the market, moving just 285,023 passengers across 2,118 international flights.

With local operators maintaining a restricted regional presence anchored primarily by Air Peace’s London route, foreign carriers have easily absorbed the surplus demand generated by Africa’s most populous nation. Qatar Airways led the 2024 passenger volume with 531,086 travellers, securing a 12.84 percent market share, closely followed by Ethiopian Airlines with 460,444 passengers and an 11.13 percent share.

However, Ethiopian Airlines has now surged ahead in total operational frequency, establishing itself as the foreign carrier with the largest physical footprint in Nigeria.

The airline has scaled its Nigerian operations to 53 weekly flights by deploying a multi-point entry model. This strategy intentionally bypasses the traditional Lagos and Abuja bottlenecks, allowing passengers in the South-South, South-East, and North-West to fly directly to Addis Ababa from their home states.

The expanded schedule includes 21 weekly flights out of Lagos, providing up to three daily services, alongside an increase to 11 weekly flights from Kano. The introduction of four new weekly flights out of Port Harcourt directly connects the South-South to the Ethiopian capital, complementing the airline’s established direct services operating out of Abuja and Enugu.

Analysing this strategy, Gbenga Onitilo, principal managing partner at Aeronexus Partners, noted that Ethiopian Airlines is not merely selling point-to-point seats, but a complete global network effect:

“This is good news for Nigerian aviation: more capacity, connectivity, and choice. A region like Port Harcourt with enormous oil and gas, energy, engineering, and commercial activity is getting a stronger international connection without passengers having to position themselves through Lagos or Abuja. But the passenger from Port Harcourt is not necessarily going to Addis Ababa because Ethiopia is the final destination. Addis is the bridge to the rest of the world. That network effect is where the real competitive advantage lies.”

Onitilo emphasised that while this model risks diverting high-yielding traffic away from domestic carriers, it also presents an unexploited interline opportunity:

“Nigerian airlines should be asking whether they can become the feeder network into these international operations. Imagine connecting passengers from Calabar, Owerri, Benin, Uyo, or Enugu into Port Harcourt and then onward to Addis. The future may not be about fighting the Ethiopian Airlines of this world. It may be about feeding them, partnering with them, and capturing value from the network.”

Read also: Nigeria’s trade surplus widens as Q2 exports hit N27tn

However, Onitilo warned of the broader economic leakages associated with relying entirely on foreign hubs:

“More foreign airline capacity also means more Nigerian aviation revenue potentially leaving the country. If Nigerian passengers increasingly use Addis Ababa, Doha, Dubai, or Istanbul to access the world, those hubs become stronger while Nigeria remains largely a spoke. When will Nigeria stop being the market that supplies passengers to other countries’ aviation hubs and start building the aviation ecosystem that makes the world connect through Nigeria?”

Despite the potential for interline partnerships, local airline executives argue that Nigeria’s infrastructure actively prevents domestic carriers from functioning as international feeders.

Adedayo Olawuyi, chief commercial officer of United Nigeria Airlines, pointed out that systemic infrastructural defects at major gateways create severe operational barriers:

“Nigerian carriers are unable to connect international passengers through any of the international airports due to lack of transit services. Passengers have to pass through immigration and then go and check in for their connecting flight. This presents a major challenge for both the airline and its passengers, and remains a major reason why developing connectivity through Nigeria is hard.”

Olawuyi also highlighted the physical separation between domestic and international terminals:

“Imagine a Nigerian carrier signs an interline with ET. The passengers arrive in Lagos on a domestic flight at GAT or MM2, then they have to find their way to MMIA to continue the journey. This is another major challenge which the foreign carriers are capitalising on. Creating an enabling environment is the first step in enabling the local carriers to compete favourably.”

Echoing these concerns, George Uriesi, managing director of Ibom Air, attributed the current market imbalance to decades of policy inaction, while criticising the federal government’s policy of granting foreign carriers multiple landing rights across regional airports:

“Nigeria is way behind in its air transport development because of a long time of being asleep at the controls. Even before the demise of Nigeria Airways, the flight had already stalled. So we cannot blame ET, who continue to build its strategy relying heavily on the Nigerian market, knowing it’s a ‘free for all’ for them. To build a successful, internationally competitive Nigerian carrier will take time.”

Uriesi noted the structural asymmetry in Bilateral Air Services Agreements (BASA):

“In spite of our admiration of ET, I must register my personal disagreement with all the multiple designations being granted to foreign carriers all over Nigeria. It is detrimental to the growth of our local industry, by severely cannibalising the market available to domestic carriers to move people around within Nigeria.

“Ethiopia and all the other countries whose airlines have all these multiple designations into Nigeria would never give Nigerian carriers equal access to their markets. ET is just starting—they might as well start a domestic service.”

John Ojikutu, aviation security expert and CEO of Centurion Aviation Security and Safety Consult, argued that Nigeria’s refusal to establish designated flag carriers—combined with airport management failures—has crippled domestic competitiveness.

Ojikutu advocated for consolidating local airlines and restructuring foreign landing permits.

“Geographically, we are well placed to be the hub to Europe and the US for East, Central, and South Africa. To get into the market, domestic airlines must be regulated to merge into two flag carriers—one regional and continental, and the other intercontinental.”

“Secondly, none of the foreign airlines must be allowed to operate into Lagos and Abuja together, but only to Abuja OR Lagos and to another airport in the alternative geographical area as their second choice. Connections for transiting passengers will remain difficult in Lagos as long as the main road between domestic and international terminals remains a public access road. Exploitation, rather than service comfort for passengers, has been FAAN’s doctrine.”

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