Four years into President William Ruto’s administration, data across major agricultural value chains presents a mixed landscape for Kenya’s agricultural sector. Official figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reveal that while average commodity prices paid to producers increased between 2022 and 2025 across coffee, sugarcane, cotton, and milk, the gains remain uneven, with sectors like tea continuing to grapple with price volatility and high production costs.
Substantial structural reforms, including the introduction of the Direct Settlement System ensuring payouts within five days of sale, have driven significant financial gains. Average cherry prices paid to farmers rose from KSh 50–60 per kilogram in 2022 to up to KSh 158 per kilogram in select factories, against a government target of KSh 250–300. Production increased 3.8% to 51,400 tonnes in the 2024/25 season. Direct sales averaged KSh 52,400 per 50-kilogram bag between October 2025 and June 2026, outperforming the auction average of KSh 43,900.
Increased national yields have not consistently yielded higher per-unit earnings for smallholder farmers. Total output reached 598.5 million kilograms in 2024 before settling at 550.4 million kilograms in 2025. Despite total marketed value reaching KSh 218.79 billion in 2025, gross prices paid to farmers dropped from KSh 29,736 per 100 kilograms in 2024 to KSh 27,806 in 2025. To mitigate losses, the Ministry of Education and Agriculture directed KTDA-managed factories in western Kenya to enforce a minimum payout of KSh 26 per kilogram while cracking down on weighing machine tampering.
Average prices paid to growers rose from KSh 4,514 per tonne in 2022 to KSh 5,437 in 2025. National sugar production saw a 72.5% surge, moving from 472,800 tonnes in 2023 to 815,500 tonnes in 2024. Private leasing of state-owned millers, such as Nzoia Sugar to West Kenya Sugar Company, significantly improved payment turnarounds from two months to weekly disbursements. However, total cane deliveries to marketing boards fell from 9.4 million tonnes in 2024 to 7.1 million tonnes in 2025, with average regional yields resting at 49.71 tonnes per hectare against a potential 85–100 tonnes.
Supported by expanded cooling infrastructure, subsidized inputs, and subsidized breeding programs, total milk production reached 5.5 billion liters in 2025, with marketed volumes rising 11.5% to one billion liters. Average prices per liter grew from KSh 47.20 in 2022 to KSh 49.58 in 2025, with regional processors like the Meru Central Dairy Cooperative Union offering up to KSh 52 per liter. Input cost interventions saw the price of sexed semen drop from KSh 7,000 to KSh 1,400, alongside price reductions in commercial dairy meal.
Driven by the expansion of high-yielding Bt cotton seeds, production sold to marketing boards rose from 3,800 tonnes in 2022 to 8,800 tonnes in 2025. Average seed cotton prices appreciated from KSh 5,609 per 100 kilograms in 2022 to KSh 7,200 in 2025 (KSh 72 per kg). Adopters of Bt cotton reported yield increases from 300 kilograms to 800 kilograms per acre, though domestic production still falls short of meeting the total demand required by local textile manufacturers.
Interventions in the cereal sector have primarily targeted input subsidies and post-harvest management. The government’s nationwide subsidized fertilizer program reduced initial planting costs, paired with ongoing capacity expansion at the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) to stabilize post-harvest market prices and grain storage.
Four years into the current administration’s economic plan, agricultural interventions have delivered improved operational timelines, higher localized payouts, and increased production across most major sub-sectors. However, high overall production costs, persistent yield gaps, and international market vulnerabilities continue to prevent uniform profitability across the entire farming sector.
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