IMF staff reaches staff-level agreement with Ghana on first review of PCI programme

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of the country’s 36-month programme supported by its Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).

The agreement follows discussions between an IMF staff team, led by Ruben Atoyan, and Ghanaian authorities during a visit to Accra from October 22 to November 4, 2026.

In a statement issued at the end of the visit, Mr Atoyan said the agreement was subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board.

He noted that Ghana’s macroeconomic stability was becoming entrenched, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

Growth is projected at 5.7 per cent for the full year, driven largely by investment, while inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October, below the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8±2 per cent.

“The fiscal position is strong, with the primary surplus on track to meet the end-year programme target, and public debt remains low following rapid declines in recent years,” Mr Atoyan said.

He added that the gains, alongside buffers built in recent years, would allow Ghana to partly absorb the external shock arising from the war in the Middle East.

The IMF said performance under the PCI had been broadly satisfactory, with most quantitative targets under the first review met.

However, it noted that the recent decline in foreign exchange reserves had prompted corrective measures, including the transfer of foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and the implementation of a higher gold sale requirement for large-scale mining companies.

“Steadfast implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, will be essential to rebuild reserves in line with programme objectives,” Mr Atoyan said.

On structural reforms, the Fund said the government had published its Fiscal Strategy Document, secured parliamentary approval for a new Cocoa Board Act and continued quarterly electricity tariff adjustments.

It also noted that Ghana had completed a comprehensive review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule.

Other reforms underway include changes to the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, the rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System, the operationalisation of the Fiscal Council and preparations for the Fiscal Risk Statement.

The IMF, however, stressed the need to complete outstanding reforms on schedule, particularly the delayed publication of the audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s (ECG) collection accounts.

On the 2027 Budget, Mr Atoyan said the fiscal plan was consistent with the PCI and targeted a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP on a commitment basis.

He said the fiscal space created would support investment in priorities under the government’s New Economy agenda, including job creation, investment opportunities and efforts to address the country’s infrastructure deficit.

“Rigorous project appraisal, competitive procurement, and strict expenditure controls will be critical to ensure value for money and preserve debt sustainability,” he cautioned.

The IMF further projected an increase in non-oil revenue in 2027, supported by tax measures announced in July 2026, the review of customs and excise legislation and revenue administration reforms.

Despite the progress, the Fund warned that Ghana remained vulnerable to external shocks, particularly fluctuations in gold, cocoa and oil prices, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions.

Domestic risks include significant debt rollover requirements, fiscal pressures from the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, as well as weaknesses in the financial sector.

It recommended prudent monetary policy, greater exchange rate flexibility, stronger foreign exchange reserve buffers and the buildup of a sinking fund to meet maturing debt obligations.

The IMF also called for stronger governance, identifying the adoption of the Conduct of Public Officers Bill, publication of the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan and improved oversight of state-owned enterprises as important measures to strengthen public trust and support private investment.

The Fund said it remained committed to supporting Ghana’s efforts to preserve macroeconomic stability and achieve stronger, more inclusive and job-rich growth.

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