The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has warned of impending above-average El Niño-driven rains during the October to December rainfall season, which could cause widespread destruction.
Weather experts have forecast an 81 per cent to 90 per cent chance of the devastation prevailing through the end of the year, and into early next year. This is expected nationwide, but it will be worse across 18 counties, including the high-risk cities of Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu.
It is, therefore, quite commendable that the government has stepped up contingency planning to curb the consequences. The authorities are mapping areas more prone to flooding and identifying safe locations for those who will be displaced.
Up to 1.5 million people could be affected, with 500,000 displaced. The National Disaster Operations Centre and the Ministry of the Interior are identifying safe evacuation sites, clearing urban drainage systems, and urging early preparedness.
The authorities are also putting in place evacuation measures long before the downpours begin. The officials concerned are saying the government will not wait for the disasters to occur before acting. The above-average rain forecast covers a large swathe of the country, including Nairobi, Kajiado, Turkana and the western and coastal counties. In some places, the rains will begin next month and continue until January.
El Niño rains during the national examinations pose a major challenge that calls for serious measures to avert disruptions. The last major El Niño rains caused flash floods, landslides, and infrastructure destruction in 33 counties, resulting in 120 direct deaths and over 1,000 related fatalities and displacements.
The most devastating El Niño rains occurred from October 1997 to February 1998. However, the most recent El Niño heavy floods occurred during the 2023/2024 short rainy season.
The authorities must act promptly and firmly to curb the imminent grave danger and destruction from the coming heavy rains.
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