Nigeria could at least double the investment flowing into its energy industry within five years as wars involving Iran and Ukraine force governments to search for more dependable suppliers, according to the head of the International Energy Agency.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol set the target during a visit to Abuja, Reuters reported.
Birol said Nigeria’s oil, natural gas and renewable-energy resources could attract governments and private investors seeking alternatives after disruptions to established supply routes.
He described trust as increasingly important in global energy markets and identified Nigeria as a potential reliable partner.
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The opportunity is not restricted to crude oil. Birol said Nigeria requires substantial capital for natural gas, electricity and renewable energy, particularly solar power.
**Nigeria joins the IEA system**
Nigeria became an IEA Association country after the agency’s member governments unanimously approved its admission in July.
Association status is different from full IEA membership. It allows Nigeria to deepen cooperation with the organisation, participate in policy discussions and receive technical support, but it does not automatically provide investment or financing.
During Birol’s visit, Nigeria and the IEA signed a Joint Work Programme covering energy data, gas development, electrification and energy efficiency.
Better data could help investors assess demand, production and project risks more accurately. Nigeria’s energy statistics have frequently differed among government agencies and international organisations, complicating investment decisions.
However, neither Birol nor the Nigerian government disclosed how much investment the country currently receives annually. Without that baseline, it is not yet possible to attach a reliable dollar figure to the proposed doubling.
The statement should therefore be treated as a target rather than a confirmed investment commitment.
**Nigeria already has billions of dollars in proposed projects**
Nigeria’s upstream regulator says 22 major offshore projects expected between 2026 and 2030 could attract between $30 billion and $50 billion.
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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also says it has approved more than $57 billion in field-development plans since 2024. Approval does not mean every project has secured financing or reached a final investment decision.
The country wants to increase oil production to three million barrels per day by 2030. Production reached a six-year high of about 1.56 million barrels per day in June, meaning output would still need to almost double to meet that target.
Nigeria planS to reach three million barrels daily by 2030. It must still address oil theft, ageing pipelines, project delays, electricity shortages and uncertainty surrounding the ability of investors to recover foreign currency.
Its strongest evidence of a changing role in global energy trade comes from the Dangote refinery. Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports increased from 46,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 350,000 barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026.
Birol said the refinery’s exports had helped ease fuel-supply pressure in Europe. That provides a practical example of how investment in Nigerian infrastructure can affect markets beyond Africa.
The wars may have created an opening, but they do not guarantee that capital will come to Nigeria. Doubling investment will depend on whether proposed oil, gas, electricity and renewable-energy projects become commercially viable and reach final investment decisions.
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