Republicans are panicking about 2026. Should they be?

The GOP has apparently reached the PANIC! stage of the 2026 midterm election.

Stories in a number of news outlets in recent days have painted a picture of Republicans suddenly reckoning with many ill omens and convincing themselves that doom lies ahead. Campaign operatives who have long been nervous about their chances of keeping the House are now even wringing their hands about the Senate.

Sometimes such panic is misplaced. Look no further than the 2022 election, when many Democrats feared a “red wave” — right before they beat history and basically fought the election to a draw.

So how panicked should Republicans be? A fair amount is surely warranted at this point, but they still have a number of factors tracking in their favor.

I ran through some of this on Friday, when I looked at how many of the atmospherics in a new CNN poll were worse than they were ahead of the GOP’s worst midterms of the 21st century, in 2006 and 2018.

But there’s still more than a month to go, and some indicators aren’t yet cooperating with the idea of a huge Democratic wave.

Let’s review.

Why the GOP should panic

Trump’s approval numbers appear worse than any modern president heading into a midterm — with voters seemingly feeling more itchy to vote against him than they did against George W. Bush in 2006. And both the Iran war and inflation appear to be massive liabilities that are blocking out other issues.

Democrats’ advantage on the so-called generic ballot isn’t as lopsided as it was in 2006, but it’s trending toward double digits, which historically suggests we’re headed for a significant rout.

And that gets at what’s particularly troublesome for Republicans right now: the trend. Things haven’t looked good for the GOP for a while, but they appear to be getting worse. And there’s little reason to believe that will change.

For one, we now appear past the point where we could see a resolution to the Iran war that would send gas prices tumbling in time to significantly register with voters. Even if there were signs that the US could cut a deal with Iran, it would take time to sort out (remember how the memorandum of understanding took a while to fall apart?). And even if Trump ended the war without a deal, there’s little indication that Iran would relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz; it’s given Tehran tremendous leverage, after all.

What’s more, Trump appears either uninterested in or incapable of changing his tactics in ways that could help the GOP. He’s continued focusing on the White House ballroom, a trade war with Canada, the Kennedy Center and various other provocations long after it became clear these things are decidedly not what voters want — and that they view him as neglecting what they really care about: the economy.

It’s all apparently baked in at this point.

And finally, the remaining undecided voters appear quite gettable for Democrats. A New York Times-Siena College poll recently showed undecided likely voters disapproved of Trump 55%-19%, with 4 in 10 strongly disapproving. CNN polling also suggests voters who haven’t chosen between Democrats and Republicans are more likely to be young people and voters of color — normally Democratic-leaning demographics.

Why the panic can wait

There is, however, at least one factor that’s moving in the GOP’s direction, and that’s spending.

Data from AdImpact on Monday showed Republicans have spent more in nearly every major Senate race now, and they have reserved more airtime in all nine of the most competitive races. The GOP’s financial advantage really took hold in the latter part of September.

If one wanted to make an optimistic case for Republicans, it’s that this could help drive down support for Democrats running in some of these competitive red states who might not match up ideologically with the electorate — people like James Talarico in Texas.

And some of those candidates have had surprisingly good image numbers that could be difficult to maintain if they’re blitzed on the airwaves.

Plus, Republicans simply benefit from significant built-in advantages that could help repel a blue wave: the current House and Senate maps.

In the Senate, those red states are Democrats’ majority-makers. They need at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024. Even in 2018, one of those particularly bad GOP midterm years, Republicans actually gained two Senate seats because the map was tilted in their favor.

In the House, the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting gambit has tilted a clear majority of the districts toward Republicans — so much so that the median House district is about 3.5 points redder than the country as a whole, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Considering all of that — and throwing in the possibility of things shifting modestly back to the GOP and/or the polls being slightly off — it’s plausible that a Democratic win could at least be less resounding than pundits are largely projecting right now.

Just look at some of these Senate races. Democrats are generally leading in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. But Times-Sienna polling had GOP Maine Sen. Susan Collins up 3 and Republicans within 5 in New Hampshire, and Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has been ahead by the low-to-mid-single digits, including in a CNN poll.

There is increasing talk of Republicans losing double-digit Trump districts in the House and possibly multiple double-digit Trump states in the Senate. But the latest evidence is that they’re still competing for some swing and even blue states in the Senate.

And any one of those states, if it went red, would throw a huge wrench in Democrats’ majority math.

For now, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the polling in those three states. If they all start to get away from Republicans, then it might really be time to panic.

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