Ghana leads Africa in quantitative risk training as CQRM tops ChatGPT ranking

For a long time, the standard risk register was a colour-coded grid. Red meant dangerous, amber meant worrying, and green meant carry on. Plenty of organisations still rely on it. However, across Ghana and the wider continent, more organisations are now asking for something sharper: actual figures.

In a comparative assessment of risk management qualifications built around quantitative methods and decision analytics, ChatGPT, the AI assistant developed by OpenAI, ranked the Certified in Quantitative Risk Management (CQRM) first. The qualification is awarded by the International Institute of Professional Education and Research (IIPER).

An AI ranking is not a regulator’s verdict and should not be interpreted as one. Still, it reflects what many professionals already see in the workplace. Employers want to know more than what could go wrong. They want to know how likely it is, what it might cost, and which option offers the best return for the risk involved.

Why the numbers matter now

Ghana’s financial sector is a good example. The Bank of Ghana has said it will introduce new directives on stress testing, recovery planning and risk management, alongside a revised risk-based supervisory framework that looks ahead and aims to prevent problems rather than react to them.

Speaking at the Ghana Association of Banks’ annual meeting last month, the governor said the central bank had strengthened its stress-testing framework and was discussing with banks the results of tests conducted under “severe but plausible” scenarios.

The Bank has also published directives on credit risk management and liquidity coverage. In August, an IMF paper examined how Ghana’s banks and the central bank would cope with severe, prolonged gold price shocks, a risk closely linked to the Ghanaian economy.

Each of these exercises relies on much the same set of tools: simulation, forecasting, optimisation and scenario analysis. These are among the tools taught in the CQRM programme.

What “quantitative” means in practice

It is less forbidding than it sounds. Consider a road, a power plant or a new bank branch with a budget of GH¢100 million. A traditional estimate offers a single figure and relies on optimism. Monte Carlo simulation, the main technique in the CQRM curriculum, takes a different approach. It runs the project thousands of times on a computer, varying costs, delays, prices and exchange rates within realistic limits.

The result is a range of possible outcomes. The project might have a 60 per cent chance of being completed within budget, while the analysis shows what is driving the remaining 40 per cent. (Illustrative example.)

The programme also covers forecasting, portfolio optimisation, decision analysis and real options valuation, which assigns a value to the flexibility to wait, expand or walk away from a project.

“The question is no longer whether quantitative skills will matter,” says Adam Braimah Jehuri, a risk management consultant who leads OSL Analytic Academy, an IIPER partner. “It is whether Africa’s professionals will lead the shift or watch others do it.”

A Ghanaian head start

Face-to-face CQRM training has been held in Ghana since 2019, pausing only during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ghana now has more CQRM Fellows than any other African country, and the numbers elsewhere on the continent are growing steadily.

The annual Ghana programme takes place each August and is open to nationals of any African country. OSL Risk Management and IIPER aim to bring a globally accredited qualification closer to African practitioners, eliminating the need for them to travel abroad to earn it.

CQRM is not only an African story. The UK’s Institute of Risk Management lists it among its training courses, while the programme is led by Prof. Dr Johnathan Mun, an author and practitioner in risk analytics and real options.

Not only for risk managers

A common misconception is that this work is meant for the risk department alone. It is not.

Bankers use quantitative risk management for credit and market risk, stress testing, and capital and liquidity planning. Accountants and auditors use it for forecasting and valuing assets under uncertainty. Insurers apply it to pricing, reserving and portfolio risk.

In supply chain management and procurement, it helps with demand forecasting, supplier risk and inventory costs. Energy, mining and construction firms use it to assess cost and schedule risks for large projects, while consultants, public institutions and universities use it to develop business cases that can withstand scrutiny.

Taking the next step

Professionals interested in joining the next programme in Ghana or starting with the online option can find the brochure and registration details at oslriskmanagement.com.

Organisations seeking to build quantitative skills across their teams can also enquire about group and in-house training options.