Ghana’s outlook brightens as IMF raises growth forecast to 5.7%, projects 4.8% inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Ghana’s growth forecast for 2026 to 5.7% and cut its year-end inflation projection to 4.8%, signalling a brighter economic outlook despite global uncertainty.

The new growth forecast is 1.1 percentage points above the Fund’s April projection of 4.6% and exceeds the government’s 4.8% estimate in the 2026 Budget. The inflation forecast has been lowered from 7.9%.

The revised projections appear in the IMF’s latest economic outlook, released during the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Fiscal discipline and gold earnings support outlook

The improved outlook has been linked to fiscal discipline, growth-focused public spending and strong commodity export earnings, particularly from gold.

Higher gold earnings have strengthened Ghana’s trade balance and helped build buffers against external shocks. The country’s commitment to targets under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) has also been cited as a factor supporting the revision.

The upgrade follows a strong first-half performance. According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the economy grew by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing growth for the first half to 6.2%.

However, sources close to the Fund have cautioned against excessive reliance on gold, urging the government to diversify export earnings to sustain growth and strengthen resilience.

The IMF expects growth to ease to 5.2% in 2027.

Inflation forecast to fall below 5%

The revised inflation forecast points to a further easing of price pressures, with the year-end rate projected to decline to 4.8% from September’s 5.2%.

That would put inflation below the lower limit of the government and the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6% to 10%.

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IMF raises Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7%, sees inflation falling to 4.8%