Gombe 2027: Who benefits from Pantami’s absence – APC or ADC?

The exclusion of Professor Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami from the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) final list of candidates for the February 6, 2027, governorship election has introduced a new dimension into Gombe State’s political contest, raising questions about how the development could affect the prospects of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

INEC’s final list, published on October 10, contains 16 governorship candidates but no candidate from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), leaving Pantami’s political supporters and other opposition stakeholders facing uncertainty over the next phase of the contest.

With Jamilu Isyaku Gwamna representing the APC and Bala Bello Tinka flying the ADC flag, attention has shifted to the potential redistribution of political support previously associated with Pantami and the PDP.

The central question is whether the development will strengthen the ruling party’s position, create an opening for the ADC or fragment the opposition vote across several political parties.

For the APC, Pantami’s absence presents a development with potentially competing implications.

Pantami initially pursued the APC governorship ticket before leaving the party and joining the PDP. His subsequent emergence as the PDP candidate positioned him as a direct challenger to the party he had left.

His absence from the final list removes that direct contest between Pantami and the APC candidate, but it does not automatically transfer his supporters to Gwamna.

Some voters who supported Pantami may reconsider their options, while others may remain loyal to him regardless of the party fielding candidates. Some may also prefer another opposition platform.

The APC’s political calculations will therefore depend partly on whether it can appeal to voters who supported Pantami without assuming that their political loyalties have changed simply because his name is missing from the list.

The party must also contend with its own electoral record, public perception of the outgoing administration and the issues voters consider important in choosing a successor to Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya.

For the ADC, Pantami’s exclusion creates a potential opening to engage voters seeking an alternative to the APC-led government.

Tinka could appeal to opposition supporters who want a competitive candidate, particularly if the ADC presents a coherent programme addressing governance, economic pressures, unemployment, infrastructure and public services. However, an opportunity is not the same as an electoral advantage.

Pantami’s supporters do not constitute a single voting bloc that another candidate can automatically inherit. Their eventual decisions may depend on personal loyalties, local political alliances, party structures and the positions taken by influential political figures.

The ADC would also need to demonstrate its organisational capacity across Gombe’s 11 local government areas and establish whether it can translate broader political interest into grassroots mobilisation.

Interviews with some of Pantami’s supporters suggest that the ADC could emerge as an alternative for voters who remain opposed to the APC but are uncertain about the PDP’s absence from the final list.

Several supporters who spoke to Daily Sun expressed interest in considering candidates presented by the ADC if efforts to restore Pantami to the contest fail. However, they maintained that Pantami remained their preferred candidate and expressed hope that the ongoing engagements between the PDP, other stakeholders and INEC would resolve the issues surrounding his omission.

Their positions reflect a dilemma facing some of Pantami’s supporters: whether to wait for the outcome of efforts to secure his inclusion or begin considering alternatives ahead of the election.

For the ADC, this presents a potential opportunity to attract voters who might otherwise have supported the PDP candidate. However, their expressed interest does not necessarily translate into a commitment to vote for the party, particularly while the possibility of Pantami’s return remains unresolved.

The development also complicates the APC’s calculations. If some of Pantami’s supporters eventually rally behind the ADC, the ruling party could face a more consolidated opposition challenge. Conversely, if Pantami returns to the contest through a court order or another lawful process, the political calculations could change again.

For now, the supporters’ positions point to a contest in which political allegiance remains fluid, with the outcome of the dispute over Pantami’s candidacy potentially influencing voters’ choices in the months ahead.

The PDP faces an immediate challenge because INEC’s final list contains no governorship candidate for the party in Gombe State.

The development followed a Federal High Court judgment that nullified Pantami’s initial nomination and ordered a fresh primary. Pantami subsequently won the rerun on September 29, polling 2,054 votes against Khamisu Mailantarki’s 389 and Aliyu Garry’s 112. His name, however, did not appear on INEC’s final list.

The omission has left the party and its supporters seeking a way forward, with engagements reportedly under way to resolve the dispute.

The absence of a PDP candidate could complicate the party’s participation in the governorship contest, but it does not establish that its supporters will abandon the party or rally behind a particular alternative.

The consequences may extend beyond the APC and ADC, as other listed candidates could also attract voters dissatisfied with the leading parties.

However, INEC’s publication of the final list may not be the last word on the matter. A court of competent jurisdiction could order changes, including the removal of candidates already listed or the inclusion of those currently omitted, depending on the outcome of legal proceedings.

Daily Sun gathered that some political parties had begun engaging INEC over the omissions, with pressure mounting for the inclusion of affected parties and candidates.

The ongoing engagements could lead to further legal action as affected parties seek to protect their interests ahead of the 2027 elections.

Until the disputes are resolved through the appropriate legal and electoral processes, the composition of the governorship race in Gombe State may remain subject to change.

In the meantime, Pantami’s absence has changed the political landscape, but it has not settled the question of who benefits.

The APC’s prospects depend partly on its ability to consolidate its existing support and appeal to voters outside its traditional base. The ADC’s prospects depend on whether it can build a credible alternative and attract opposition supporters without relying solely on the PDP’s predicament.

The reported interest among some Pantami supporters in considering the ADC suggests that the party could attract a portion of the opposition vote if his exclusion persists. Nevertheless, their continued hope for his return means that any political realignment remains uncertain.

For Gombe’s electorate, the more important consideration is what each candidate offers in terms of policy, leadership, accountability and development.

The 2027 contest will not be determined by Pantami’s absence alone. Party organisation, candidate credibility, political alliances, campaign strategy and voters’ assessment of the competing records and promises will also shape the race.

Until reliable evidence establishes how Pantami’s supporters will ultimately respond, the question of whether the APC or ADC benefits most remains open.

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