Three scenarios face UN Security Council over MINURSO’s future in Moroccan Sahara

The United Nations Security Council faces key decisions over the future of its mission in the Moroccan Sahara as it prepares to vote on renewing its mandate before it expires on Oct. 31. The council has to decide whether to keep the MINURSO under its current mandate, extend it for a shorter period or use the coming weeks to push for renewed diplomatic efforts while reviewing the mission’s future role. According to the Security Council Report’s October 2026 forecast, two main options are on the table for renewing the mission’s mandate: a one-year extension without changes or a shorter, six-month extension. Council members could also issue a statement calling on the parties to resume negotiations and make progress toward a political settlement. The decision comes as talks remain stalled despite diplomatic efforts involving Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria and Mauritania.

Scenario 1: Renew MINURSO’s mandate for another year

The first option is to renew MINURSO’s mandate for another 12 months without changing its current responsibilities or structure. This would give the United Nations more time to advance the political process before deciding whether the mission needs a new mandate or a different set of priorities. The option would also allow the council to avoid making major changes before the outcome of negotiations becomes clearer. A year-long extension would keep the mission operating under its existing framework while diplomats continue efforts to bring the parties closer to an agreement. The main challenge is that negotiations have made little progress. In February, the United States hosted talks involving Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria and Mauritania in Madrid and Washington. However, the meetings did not bridge the gap between their positions. Morocco maintains that its autonomy plan, under Moroccan sovereignty, should serve as the basis for a political settlement. The Polisario Front insists that any agreement must guarantee the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination. The council also faces uncertainty over a strategic review of MINURSO’s future mandate requested under Resolution 2797, adopted on Oct. 31, 2025. The review was meant to take the outcome of negotiations into account, but the lack of progress has complicated that task.

Scenario 2: Extend the mandate for six months

A second option would see the Security Council extend MINURSO’s mandate for six months instead of a full year. This would give council members an earlier opportunity to assess whether negotiations have advanced enough to guide decisions about the mission’s future responsibilities. A shorter extension could also keep the pressure on the parties to show progress before the council revisits the issue. Rather than waiting until October 2027 for another annual renewal, members could review developments in the political process within a few months. The approach would be particularly relevant if the strategic review remains unfinished or if diplomats need more time to determine how a potential political agreement would affect the mission’s work. Resolution 2797 asked the U.N. secretary-general to review MINURSO’s future mandate, including possible adjustments to its tasks and priorities if a political agreement is reached. The security situation adds urgency to the decision. The forecast describes continued hostilities between Morocco and the Polisario Front at a low to medium intensity, with the lack of progress in negotiations raising the risk of further escalation.

Scenario 3: Push for renewed talks through a Security Council statement

Beyond the two mandate-renewal options, council members could issue a press statement after their October consultations to encourage renewed diplomatic efforts. The statement could support the work of Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. secretary-general’s personal envoy for the Moroccan Sahara, and U.S.-led efforts to bring the parties back to negotiations. It could urge the parties to engage constructively, show flexibility and work toward a political solution that is acceptable to all sides. Such a statement would not replace the formal vote on MINURSO’s mandate. Instead, it would offer a way for the council to reinforce its diplomatic message while members continue to disagree over the dispute and the mission’s future. The United States has maintained its support for Morocco’s autonomy plan as the basis for a lasting solution. France also backs the plan, while the United Kingdom has described it as a credible and practical basis for resolving the dispute. Other council members have placed greater emphasis on self-determination and the need for a solution acceptable to all parties.

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