KADUNA AND THE ROAD TO 2027

The Tinubu administration has earned support in the state through development interventions, writes

ADEOYE SAMUEL

Governor Uba Sani’s prediction that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could secure between 70 and 80 per cent of the votes in Kaduna State in the 2027 presidential election is bold, even by the standards of Nigerian politics.

But beneath the headline-grabbing projection lies a more consequential argument: that Kaduna’s political mood is changing because voters are increasingly measuring the government not merely by political slogans, ethnic calculations or partisan loyalties, but by visible interventions and tangible results.

Appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Governor Sani did not present his forecast as mere political bravado. He anchored it on what he described as political trends, voting patterns and the impact of the Tinubu administration on Kaduna State.

“Kaduna, just write it down, Asiwaju will get nothing less than between 70 per cent to 80 per cent votes,” Uba Sani declared. It is an audacious prediction. But it is also an invitation to examine what has changed in Kaduna since the 2023 election.

The most important element of Sani’s argument is his contention that the political configuration that produced the 2023 result has substantially shifted.

Kaduna is not a politically passive state. Its electorate is sophisticated, competitive and historically sensitive to questions of representation, development and political inclusion. In 2023, opposition parties made significant gains in parts of the state, particularly Southern Kaduna, where prominent political figures were largely aligned against the APC.

According to Governor Sani, that political equation has since changed. Several influential political actors who previously stood outside the APC have moved into the ruling party. Among them is Senator Sunday Katung, whom Sani identified as an important example of the political realignment.

The governor’s argument is straightforward: these political movements are not simply the product of political convenience. He believes they reflect a changing assessment of what the Tinubu administration is doing in Kaduna.

“No one forced them,” Sani said, attributing the realignment to federal projects and interventions in the state. That distinction matters.

Political defections in Nigeria are often dismissed as transactional manoeuvres. But if the movement of political actors is accompanied by genuine changes in voter sentiment, it could indicate something larger: the emergence of a performance-based political narrative in areas where the APC previously faced resistance.

Perhaps nowhere is this argument more significant than in Southern Kaduna. For years, complaints of marginalisation and inadequate federal presence have featured prominently in the political discourse of the region. Governor Sani believes the Tinubu administration has begun to alter that narrative through concrete projects.

Among the interventions he highlighted are the establishment of the Federal University of Applied Sciences in Kachia and the Federal Medical Centre in Kafanchan. These are not insignificant interventions.

A university represents more than classrooms and lecture halls. It creates an ecosystem of knowledge, employment, business opportunities, accommodation, transportation and services. A federal medical centre, similarly, represents more than a hospital building. It offers the possibility of improved access to specialised healthcare while generating employment and stimulating economic activity around the institution.

For communities that have historically felt excluded from the national development conversation, such projects carry both practical and symbolic importance. They communicate presence. And in politics, presence matters.

Governor Sani said he personally raised Kaduna’s infrastructure deficits with President Tinubu. The implication is that the relationship between the state government and the federal government has been deliberately used to attract interventions to communities that need them most. That could become an important political asset ahead of 2027.

There is another dimension to Sani’s prediction: the growing importance of measurable performance in Nigerian politics. For decades, elections have frequently been dominated by identity, party loyalty, personalities and emotional appeals. Yet economic pressures and rising expectations are gradually making voters more demanding.

Citizens want roads. They want electricity. They want schools and hospitals. They want jobs and economic opportunities. They want security. Increasingly, they want evidence that the government is working.

This is why infrastructure and public investment can become politically consequential. A government may make a thousand promises, but a completed project is difficult to argue with.

Governor Sani’s case for Tinubu in Kaduna therefore rests substantially on the argument that development is reshaping political attitudes.

Whether that transformation will ultimately produce 70 or 80 per cent of the vote is a question only the electorate can answer. But the underlying political logic is clear: tangible development can create constituencies of beneficiaries, and beneficiaries can become advocates for continuity.

Yet Governor Sani’s interview also revealed a more difficult reality about Kaduna’s finances. The governor disclosed that the state currently pays about ₦6.7 billion every month from its Federation Account Allocation Committee revenue to service loans inherited from previous administrations.

According to him, the repayment obligation will continue until 2048. This is a staggering fiscal burden for any subnational government. Sani was emphatic that his administration has not contracted any new loan since assuming office in May 2023.

“Since I became governor, I have not borrowed one kobo,” he said, adding that the figures could be verified through the records of the Debt Management Office.

The disclosure places the debate over Kaduna’s development in a broader context.

Government performance is not simply about how much money enters the treasury. It is also about how much remains available after debt obligations, recurrent expenditure and other commitments have been met.

For Sani, the challenge has therefore been to operate within a constrained fiscal environment while continuing to invest in development. That makes fiscal discipline an important part of the political narrative he is constructing.

The debt question inevitably intersects with the wider political debate surrounding the administration of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, who governed Kaduna from 2015 to 2023.

El-Rufai is currently facing legal proceedings arising from allegations of corruption, abuse of office and money laundering. The allegations remain subject to determination by the courts, and the former governor has denied wrongdoing.

The ICPC has also filed an amended 11-count charge concerning an alleged ₦8.68 billion CCTV contract.

Sani’s reference to inherited liabilities therefore comes at a politically sensitive moment. Yet the significance of the issue extends beyond personalities.

The real question for Kaduna residents is how inherited obligations affect the capacity of the government to deliver services today.

If ₦6.7 billion is leaving the state every month to service old debts, every naira available for contemporary development carries greater significance. It also makes Sani’s insistence that his administration has not borrowed new money a central part of his fiscal argument.

Ultimately, Governor Sani’s 70–80 per cent prediction will not be settled on television or in political rallies. It will be decided by Kaduna voters.

His projection, however, reveals the political strategy taking shape ahead of 2027.

The APC intends to argue that Kaduna has moved beyond the political divisions of 2023 and that the Tinubu administration has earned support through development interventions, particularly in areas where federal presence has historically been demanded.

The opposition will undoubtedly challenge that narrative and present its own interpretation of the state’s economic and political realities.

That is democracy.

But the most important development may be that Kaduna’s political conversation is increasingly being framed around what the government delivers.

For President Tinubu, the stakes are considerable. Kaduna is one of the North’s politically influential states, and a dramatic improvement on the APC’s 2023 performance would strengthen the President’s claim to have consolidated support across the region.

For Uba Sani, meanwhile, the prediction is both a political wager and a declaration of confidence in the direction of the state.

He is effectively telling Kaduna voters that the political landscape has changed, that federal interventions are being felt and that the Tinubu-Sani partnership offers a pathway to continued development.

But one thing is already clear: the road to 2027 in Kaduna will be fought not only through political alliances, but through competing claims over performance, development, representation and the ability of the government to translate scarce resources into tangible improvements in the lives of citizens.

Samuel writes from Abuja, FCT