2026 set to be the world’s second-hottest year on record as El Niño drives August to an all-time high

The world has been hotter in the first ten months of 2026 than in any other year on record except 2024, a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data shows.

Between 1 January and 26 October, the average air temperature at the Earth’s surface was 15.30°C. That is 0.64°C higher than the average for the same days between 1991 and 2020, the period scientists use as today’s “normal.”

Only 2024 was warmer over the same days, at 0.71°C above normal. 2026 is ahead of 2025 (0.59°C) and 2023 (0.55°C).

The figures come from ERA5, a day-by-day record of the world’s weather produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. JoyNews Research analysed every day from 1 January 1940 to 26 October 2026, a total of 31,711 days.

The analysis comes days before world leaders meet in Antalya, Türkiye, for the COP31 climate summit, which runs from 9 to 20 November.

Figure 1: The ten warmest years over 1 January to 26 October. Each bar compares the same days of the year

What does 0.64°C mean?

A rise of less than one degree can sound small. Ghanaians feel bigger swings between morning and afternoon on any ordinary day.

But this figure is different. It is an average for the whole planet: every country, every ocean, day and night, for ten months. Moving that average even by a few tenths of a degree takes a huge amount of extra heat. That heat shows up locally as hotter days, more intense downpours, and longer dry spells.

Scientists call the difference from normal an “anomaly.” Throughout this article, an anomaly of +0.64°C simply means 0.64°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average for that time of year.

A slow start, then a sharp turn

2026 did not start as a record year. From January to April, it ranked only fourth or fifth for the time of year, at about 0.53°C above normal.

Then it climbed. May and June were the second-warmest on record. By August it was first.

Between August and October, temperatures averaged 0.85°C above normal, a jump of 0.32°C on the first four months of the year.

The turn matches the arrival of El Niño. This is a natural pattern in which the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator becomes unusually warm and releases extra heat into the air, raising temperatures around the world.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on 8 October that El Niño conditions were present, with a key Pacific temperature index at 2.1°C above normal. It gave a more than 83% chance of a strong to very strong event lasting into early 2027.

Figure 2: Each month of 2026 compared with normal. The number inside each bar is that month’s rank out of 87 years.

August: the hottest month ever measured

August 2026 was the warmest August on record, at 0.84°C above normal. It beat the previous record, shared by 2024 and 2023, by 0.13°C, a wide margin for a global average.

In plain temperature terms, August averaged 16.96°C. That equals July 2023 as the hottest month in the entire record. Copernicus, the EU climate service, reached the same finding in its own monthly report, describing August as the joint-hottest month on record.

September was the second-warmest September, behind only 2023. October is running just 0.01°C ahead of the same days in 2023, too close to call until the month’s final figures are in.

65 days, those broke records

A record day is one that was hotter than the same date in every year since 1940. So far in 2026, there have been 65 of them.

Twenty-four of those came in August alone, more than in the whole first half of the year. From 8 August to 8 September, every single day set a new record for its date: 32 days in a row.

Even on days that did not set records, 2026 was rarely far behind. Seven in every ten days this year (206 of 299) ranked in the top three for their date.

Figure 3: Days in 2026 that were the hottest ever measured for their date, by month.

The single hottest day of 2026 was 14 August, at 17.05°C. It is the 12th-hottest day on record; the 11 days above it all fell in July and August of 2023 and 2024. Before 2023, the world’s average temperature had never reached 17°C on any day. In 2026, it has done so on 18 days, the same as in 2024.

Figure 4: Every year since 1940 plotted day by day. Grey lines are 1940 to 2022; the coloured lines are the four most recent years.

Can 2026 overtake 2024?

Almost certainly not. For 2026 to beat 2024 over the full year, the remaining 66 days would have to average 1.08°C above normal. No year in the record has averaged more than 0.84°C over late October to December, and that was 2023, also an El Niño year.

JoyNews Research projected the rest of the year using how late-October temperatures have carried into November and December in every year since 1979. Both methods point to a full-year figure of about 0.67°C above normal, within a range of 0.63°C to 0.72°C.

Every scenario puts 2026 in second place. It would also mean the four hottest years ever measured are the last four: 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

Figure 5: Every year since 1940 compared with the 1991–2020 average. Blue years were cooler than that average; 2026 is a projection, with its likely range.

What about the 1.5°C limit?

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to try to keep global warming to 1.5°C above “pre-industrial” levels, the average for 1850 to 1900, before large-scale burning of coal, oil and gas.

On that scale, 2026 is on course to end at about 1.55°C. Copernicus puts 2024 at 1.60°C and 2025 at 1.47°C.

This does not mean the Paris limit has been broken. That limit is measured as an average over 20 years, not a single year. But the world is now regularly having years at or above the line, and Copernicus expects the current El Niño to last into 2027.

Warming is speeding up

Over the full record, the world has warmed by about 0.14°C every ten years since 1940. Since 1979, the rate has been 0.21°C per decade. Since 2000 it has reached 0.29°C per decade, roughly double the long-run pace.

What it means for Ghana

The figures in this analysis are global averages and do not describe conditions in any single country. But the same El Niño is shaping Ghana’s weather.

In its outlook for the September to November minor rainy season, the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country and below-normal to normal rainfall in most areas. It advised farmers to prepare for long dry spells by harvesting rainwater and using drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, while warning that flash floods remain possible in low-lying areas.

The numbers leave little doubt about the direction of travel. The question for COP31, and for Ghana, is how fast the world can prepare for a climate in which a year like 2026 is no longer unusual.