2027: As Saraki, AbdulRazaq Renew Battle for Control of Kwara

Hammed Shittu in Ilorin

Ahead of the 2027 elections, the struggle for political leadership in Kwara, the State of Harmony, over who will take the mantle of leadership, after Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq’s eight-year tenure, has commenced in earnest among the major political stakeholders in the state.

The renewed battle for the governorship is expected to involve the former Senate President and leader of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, and the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Abdulrazaq.

Governor Abdulrazaq is also contesting the Kwara Central Senatorial District seat in next year’s general elections.

However, although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has listed no fewer than 14 political parties in the state, only four or five appear to have positioned themselves to contest the governorship in the forthcoming election.

To a large extent, political watchers in the state have narrowed the contest to the leading candidates. They are the incumbent Speaker of the State House of Assembly and APC governorship candidate, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Salihu-Danladi and the opposition PDP’s governorship candidate, Engr. Bolakale Kawu Agaka. Equally, the governorship candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Hon. Zakari Mohammed, has positioned himself as one of the contenders for the Ahmadu Bello Government House in the forthcoming election. Another strong contender in this election is the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Prof. Abdulmumin Ajia, also hails from Ilorin in Kwara Central Senatorial District.

The APC

The emergence of Salihu-Danladi caused considerable dissatisfaction among party stakeholders in the state. They made several attempts to change his candidacy but were unsuccessful.

This led to the formation of the G15 faction within the APC and reportedly contributed to the defection of some party chieftains to the opposition PDP in the state.

Among those who defected from the APC to the PDP is the serving senator representing Kwara Central Senatorial District, Senator Saliu Mustapha, who subsequently secured the PDP senatorial ticket ahead of the elections.

Similarly, Mr. Kolo Jiya, an APC chieftain from Kwara North Senatorial District, defected to the PDP. He later emerged as the party’s candidate for the Kwara North senatorial seat in next year’s general elections. Despite the ongoing intrigues within the APC, the party’s leadership in the state has justified its decision to pick its governorship candidate from Kwara North Senatorial District, represented by Salihu-Danladi.

The APC Chairman in the State, Sunday Fagbemi, stressed at separate fora that the people of Kwara North deserved consideration in the political leadership of the state.

He said Salihu-Danladi’s emergence as the party’s governorship candidate would usher in good leadership and continuity across the state’s three senatorial districts. Fagbemi added that zoning the ticket to Kwara North was also intended to promote justice, fair play and equity in the state’s political calculations.

He stressed that other parts of the state, particularly Kwara Central and Kwara South Senatorial Districts, had also occupied the governorship at different times.

Political pundits said the emergence of Salihu-Danladi as the APC governorship candidate introduced a new dimension to the quest for fairness, justice and equity in the state’s political calculations, given that he hails from Kwara North Senatorial District.

Since his emergence as the APC governorship candidate, the ruling party’s leadership has been moving from one senatorial district to another to woo voters and highlight the achievements of the present administration, urging the electorate to vote for the APC in next year’s general elections.

The PDP

For the PDP’s governorship candidate, Agaka, the Ilorin-born politician is a retired executive director of the federally owned Rural Roads Emergency agency in Abuja. He is also a prince of the Ilorin Emirate. His father was a former private secretary to the late Emir of Ilorin, Alhaji Zulukanemi Ibrahim Gambari.

Since emerging as the PDP’s governorship candidate for 2027, Kawu has held a series of consultations with party stakeholders and other groups to present his ideas and seek their support.

The PDP candidate recently toured some communities in Kwara South Senatorial District to canvass support ahead of the election.

The state PDP Chairman, Mallam Isa Bawa, said in an interaction with journalists in Ilorin that the party was ready to deliver improved performance and governance through its candidate, Engr. Bolakale Kawu. He said the APC had failed to provide good leadership despite the substantial funds that had accrued to the state since the party assumed office in 2019.

Bawa argued that the PDP had prepared well and would leave no stone unturned in its bid to wrest control of the state from the APC in 2027.

He noted that the alleged failure of the APC had led to the defection of many of its members to the PDP ahead of the forthcoming general elections.

Bawa, who said the PDP was already gaining wider acceptance among the people, added that the 2027 general election would provide an opportunity for the party to prove that it remained a force to reckon with.

The ADC

The ADC Governorship candidate, Mohammed, who hails from Kwara North Senatorial District, said during a recent interactive session with journalists in Ilorin that his party would win the election.

The former lawmaker urged voters to assess candidates based on their programmes, competence and capacity to deliver, rather than sentiments or political affiliations.

He challenged political parties and their candidates to explain how they intend to address the challenges confronting the people instead of relying solely on campaign promises.

Mohammed further said the ADC was committed to implementing its manifesto, insisting that candidates elected on the party’s platform would be expected to operate within its policy framework.

He expressed confidence that a government focused on security, agriculture, education, healthcare and economic relief could improve the living conditions of residents across Kwara State.

The NDC

The governorship candidate of the NDC, Ajia, also hails from Ilorin in Kwara Central Senatorial District. Ajia has contested the governorship several times in the past and struggled to secure political support across the state’s 193 wards. The NDC, a new party in the country, has reportedly been finding it difficult to gain ground in the state.

Ajia, a former APC chieftain, recently told journalists in Ilorin that he would digitalise governance if given the opportunity.

The Professor of Business Administration at Lincoln University in the United States said his government would adopt digital governance to ensure that every literate citizen could access government services through the internet.

He assured voters that “our government shall move beyond publishing budgets toward citizen accessible tracking of projects, contracts, and outcomes.”

He also disclosed that his governing philosophy would centre on “systems repair” for Kwara State.

In his declaration address, titled “Systems First: A New Direction for Kwara,” Ajia argued that the core challenge facing Nigerian governance was not the failure of citizens but the failure of systems.

“People do not fail first. Systems fail first,” Ajia said.

“When systems work, people rise. When systems collapse, people adapt just to survive,” he added.

Analysts Position

Meanwhile, in his analysis of the dynamics that could determine victory in the 2027 governorship election, a political commentator and Professor of Political Science at the University of Ilorin, Hassan Ajisafe Saliu, said electoral geography varies across the states of the federation, arguing that poverty was the only common national denominator.

The political scientist said the developments that recently unfolded in Osun State might not be replicated in other states, adding that Osun’s electoral geography differed from Kwara’s in some fundamental ways.

Speaking on what he described as “Ancestry Politics and Voter Sophistication,” the university don said the ancestry politics that defined the Osun election was absent in Kwara State, adding that “Kwara is just one of the states.”

“It is instructive to note that Osun State has a relatively more sophisticated voting population than Kwara State. Until the 2019 general elections, Kwara voters had been made docile on account of historical political antecedents.

“Regrettably, the 2019 electoral revolution has since been replaced by another era of docility incubated in people’s strong belief in transfer earnings. This means that Kwara voters can vote either way if properly motivated,” he said.

Saliu also said Kwara politics was defined by three senatorial districts with different power blocs: Kwara Central, which has the highest number of votes, Kwara North and Kwara South.

However, he said no single district could deliver victory on its own, adding that political alliances had to be built.

Saliu also said the governorship contest in Kwara State would also reflect the neoliberal tendency evident in the Osun election.

“Nothing spectacular is on offer to make the election highly interesting and competitive beyond the goal of gaining control and ego. People have argued that there is no fundamental difference between the old order and the current: PDP and APC.

“A capitalist orientation has driven the state’s actions since 1999, and even before, when the Fourth Republic kicked off.

“In other words, the Kwara election will be more like an ego war between different sides of the capitalist orientation, engaged in expanding the scope of their political control and the allied benefits that come with it. Most people have not realised this simple truth.

“Moreover, that is why, whichever way the election goes, no fundamental changes may happen. Wherever huge sums of money dominate every step in the political process, the outcome hardly favours the masses.”

By and large, next year’s governorship election in Kwara State is expected to renew the political battle between Saraki, and Abdulrazaq. Kwara awaits the outcome as the political pendulum prepares to swing.