Another El Niño Is in the Offing

Namibia has been warned. The 2026/27 rainy season is approaching amid forecasts of an increasingly severe El Niño.

The Namibia Meteorological Service forsees below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the country.

The outlook suggests that some areas could receive only 70% to 90% of their long-term average rainfall, while temperatures in parts of the country could rise by as much as 3°C above average between January and March 2027.

This prediction does not mean that every part of Namibia will experience drought in the same way.
Weather forecasts carry uncertainty.

But the warning is strong enough to demand action.

The Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum, held at Swakopmund in August, also pointed to below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern parts of Southern Africa, as well as above-normal temperatures.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation has already called for early action, including having seed, livestock feed and financing ready before the season deteriorates.

The question is simple: will Namibia prepare for the drought, or will we wait until water points are dry, crops have failed, and livestock are dying?

WE’VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE

Namibia does not need to imagine what an El Niño-induced drought can do.
During 2015/16, one of the strongest El Niño events on record contributed to severe drought conditions.

The country’s maize production fell by 62%, while mahangu production declined by 39% compared with the previous five-year average.

Water scarcity, poor grazing, livestock losses and declining household incomes followed.

That lesson is particularly important today because Namibia is entering another potentially dry season after several difficult agricultural years.

In the 2024/25 marketing year, Namibia’s grain self-sufficiency rate fell to only 8%, according to the Namibian Agronomic Board.

White maize self-sufficiency fell to 11%, mahangu to 12%, and wheat to just 2%.

This means another major production shock will not simply be an agricultural problem.

It will affect food prices, household incomes, livestock markets, imports, rural livelihoods and national food security.

DEEP CONCERNS

For Namibia, the El Niño discussion must go beyond rainfall. Only about 2% of rainfall becomes surface runoff, and approximately 1% eventually seeps underground.

The overwhelming majority is lost through evaporation and transpiration.

Namibia has very little room for waste when rainfall declines.

Our dams, aquifers, rivers and water supply systems will come under additional pressure as temperatures rise.

This has implications for households and municipalities, but also for agriculture.

Irrigation farmers cannot simply assume that water will be available because they have access to an irrigation scheme.

Recent drought years have already shown how declining dam levels can affect irrigated agriculture. In 2024/25, Namibia’s wheat production fell dramatically, with reduced irrigation linked to low water levels at Hardap Dam.

The response must begin with water management, not emergency water trucking after supplies have failed.

WHAT TO DO NOW?

First, the government must immediately activate an anticipatory drought response.

The 2024/25 drought after-action review found that approximately 1.4 million people experienced acute food insecurity at the height of the crisis.

Its central lesson was that Namibia needs to move from a largely reactive emergency response towards anticipatory action and stronger preparedness systems.

That lesson should guide the response to 2026/27.

Second, farmers need timely information and support to make difficult decisions before conditions deteriorate.

Livestock owners should assess carrying capacity, secure fodder and water, and reduce herds where necessary.

A recent agricultural authorities warning is clear: waiting until grazing has collapsed will make livestock losses much harder to avoid.

Third, crop production must become more weather-responsive.

Farmers should have access to seasonal forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasts, soil moisture information and crop advisories that help them decide when to plant, what to plant and how much land to cultivate.

Drought-tolerant crops and varieties should receive greater attention, particularly among smallholder farmers.

Fourth, water utilities and municipalities should immediately review their drought plans.

This means checking boreholes, repairing leaking infrastructure, protecting strategic water sources, reviewing abstraction levels and preparing clear conservation measures before restrictions become unavoidable.

Fifth, Namibia needs to make much better use of satellite data, weather stations, soil moisture sensors and agricultural field observations.

We have the technology to monitor vegetation stress, surface water, soil moisture and crop conditions almost in real time.

What is often missing is not data, but a system that converts data into decisions.

DELAY IS NOT AN OPTION

El Niño itself is not the enemy. The danger lies in allowing a known climate risk to become a national emergency through delayed action.

Namibia cannot control the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

It can, however, decide how much water it stores, how efficiently it uses that water, how farmers receive climate information, how livestock numbers are managed, how quickly drought assistance is released and how early vulnerable communities are identified.

The most expensive drought response is the one that begins after the drought has already destroyed livelihoods.
The warning has been issued.

The forecasts will continue to change as the season approaches. Namibia should use that uncertainty to monitor more closely.

We should not wait for the first failed crop, the empty borehole or the dead animal before deciding that the drought has arrived.

– Oluibukun Ajayi is an associate professor of geoinformation technology at the department of land and spatial sciences, Namibia University of Science and Technology (Nust).; [email protected]. The views expressed here are his own and not those of Nust.

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