The state prepares for unrest Mondlane says he will not call

Good afternoon. Mozambique’s prison service is treating Venâncio Mondlane’s trial as a potential national security crisis. SERNAP has ordered its highest level of combat readiness across all prisons from 16 November, the day before proceedings begin. Yet in an interview published on 18 October, Mondlane said he would not call his supporters onto the streets if convicted. The state is preparing for a reaction the defendant says he will not lead. Reinforcing prison security may address the consequences of public distrust, but it does little to address its causes.

The directive gives particular attention to prisons affected by incursions and escapes during the 2024 unrest. Guards will be redeployed from administrative duties, external patrols strengthened, and coordination maintained with police and military authorities. Protecting prisoners, staff and neighbouring communities is a legitimate responsibility. The order also requires proportionality and respect for human rights.

The full Daily Briefing continues below for Pro subscribers. Subscribers to the Zitamar News tier can read the top half, including the full leader article, here.

The latest from Zitamar News:

Floating power plant off Maputo re-emerges as gas-fired project after HFO plan blockedA new proposal for the 415MW powership would run on natural gas from the outset, after the government blocked an earlier version using heavy fuel oil

Subscribe from just $12 a month

Those assurances must be judged against a difficult record. Amnesty International’s April 2025 report, Protest Under Attack, documented reckless and unlawful force, mass arbitrary arrests and deliberate restrictions on information during the post-election crackdown. The civil society platform DECIDE counted around 315 deaths between October 2024 and January 2025. The security forces already had the weapons and equipment to confront those demonstrations. What was missing was restraint and accountability, and the authorities have yet to demonstrate that those failures have been addressed.

Invoking judicial independence does not remove the political context. In a deliberation dated 10 June, the Council of State suspended Mondlane’s immunity as a member to allow the criminal case to proceed at the Supreme Court. Mondlane argues that the decision is null because the Council may suspend a member for the purposes of criminal proceedings but cannot lift his immunity. The decision does not establish that the executive ordered the prosecution. It does show that political institutions have helped clear its path. Frelimo stands to benefit from the weakening of its most prominent opponent, making the court’s independence especially consequential.