Why Nigeria cannot secure its communities without tackling poverty

By Augustine Amadi

Security Is More Than the Absence of Attack

Nigeria’s security debate often begins with the capabilities of the military, police and intelligence agencies. This is understandable. A state must protect citizens from armed groups, kidnapping, terrorism and criminal violence.

But security has another dimension that receives less attention: whether people have legitimate economic alternatives.

A farmer who cannot safely reach a farm is economically vulnerable. A young person without education, employment or a realistic route into productive work is socially vulnerable. A community without functioning roads, schools, health facilities and markets is institutionally vulnerable.

None of this excuses criminality. Poverty does not automatically produce violence, and the overwhelming majority of poor Nigerians are not criminals.

But persistent economic exclusion can create conditions in which criminal networks, extremist organisations and other violent actors find recruitment, concealment or cooperation easier.

Nigeria’s security challenge must therefore be understood as both a law-enforcement problem and a human-development problem.

The Economic Cost of Insecurity

Insecurity does not merely threaten lives. It destroys economic capacity.

When farmers abandon land because of attacks or fear of attacks, food production suffers. When traders avoid certain routes, transportation costs increase. When businesses cannot operate safely, investment declines. When schools close because communities are unsafe, human capital suffers.

The consequences then feed back into insecurity.

Lower agricultural output contributes to food-price pressure. Higher food costs worsen household poverty. Lost income reduces opportunities. Communities become less resilient. Government then spends more on emergency responses while having less fiscal space for development.

Recent evidence illustrates part of this problem. The World Bank reported in 2026 that partial agricultural crop losses in Nigeria had risen from about 6 per cent of plots in 2018/19 to more than 20 per cent in 2023/24, with climate shocks, environmental pressures and growing insecurity among the factors involved.

Security policy therefore cannot afford to treat economic activity as an afterthought.

The Limits of a Force-Only StrategyMilitary and police operations remain indispensable against armed groups. The state cannot negotiate away its responsibility to enforce the law.

But force alone cannot create a functioning rural economy.

An operation may clear an area of armed groups, but what happens afterwards?

Can farmers safely return? Are roads passable? Are markets functioning? Can children attend school? Can local authorities provide basic services? Is there enough economic activity to prevent the community from becoming vulnerable again?

These questions determine whether a security gain becomes permanent.

A sustainable security strategy should therefore connect operations with reconstruction, employment, agricultural productivity, education and local governance.

This is particularly important because Nigeria faces a substantial labour-market challenge. The World Bank estimates that about 3.5 million people enter the labour force each year, while the country continues to struggle with adequate creation of quality employment.

A country that continually produces new job seekers without expanding productive opportunities is creating a structural pressure that policing cannot resolve.

Human Development Is Security Policy

There is a tendency to place education, healthcare, nutrition and employment in the category of “social issues” while security is treated as something separate.

That division is increasingly difficult to defend.

A child who receives adequate nutrition and education is more likely to develop productive capabilities. A young person with marketable skills and access to work has more legitimate economic choices. A farmer with secure access to land, roads, storage and markets is better positioned to withstand shocks.

Human development strengthens the social foundations on which security depends.

The International Monetary Fund reported in 2026 that 63 per cent of Nigerians were estimated to be living below the national poverty line and that about 27 million Nigerians were estimated to have faced food insecurity in late 2025. The same assessment warned that higher food and fuel prices could worsen poverty and food insecurity.

These figures are not merely economic statistics. They describe the environment in which security policy must operate.

Adebayo’s Integrated Approach

Prince Adewole Adebayo’s Farewell to Poverty and Insecurity places security, productivity and prosperity within the same governing framework. His stated philosophy is that the state should be judged by improvements in security, productivity and the welfare of
citizens.

This is also reflected in his emphasis on enterprise, agriculture, youth development, education and localised development.

His argument is worth considering because it challenges the tendency to separate economic policy from security policy.

The proposal does not eliminate the need for effective policing or military capability. Rather, it suggests that the security objective should ultimately be to create conditions in which citizens can live and work normally.

That is a useful distinction.

The success of such an approach, however, would depend heavily on execution. It would require coordination between security agencies, federal ministries, state governments and local institutions. It would require reliable information about communities and measurable targets for restoring livelihoods. It would also require avoiding the familiar problem in Nigeria whereby large programmes are announced but accountability for results becomes unclear.

Restoring the Local Economy

One practical starting point is the recovery of local economies in areas affected by insecurity.

Government should identify communities where violence has disrupted farming, trade and education and develop integrated recovery plans.

Such plans could include agricultural inputs, roads, storage facilities, market access, schools, health services, vocational training and targeted security presence.

The objective would not be to create permanent dependency on government. It would be to restore the economic ecosystem that allows communities to become self-sustaining.

This also explains why local government matters.

A central government in Abuja cannot effectively manage every community’s economic recovery. State and local institutions must have clearly defined responsibilities, resources and measurable performance standards.

Adebayo’s blueprint proposes cooperative federalism and stronger coordination among federal, state and local governments, including public performance information.

Again, the proposition should be judged by implementation rather than rhetoric.

*The Security Question Nigeria Must Answer*

The fundamental question is not whether Nigeria should spend more on security. It should.

The question is what that spending is ultimately designed to achieve.

If security expenditure simply produces temporary suppression of violence while communities remain poor, disconnected and economically stagnant, the country risks repeating the same cycle.

But if security operations create space for agriculture, education, enterprise, infrastructure and legitimate employment to recover, the security dividend becomes much larger.

Nigeria’s challenge is therefore to break the feedback loop in which insecurity produces poverty, poverty deepens vulnerability and vulnerability creates new opportunities for insecurity.

No single presidential policy can guarantee that this cycle will end. But any serious national strategy should recognise that guns can suppress violence while only functioning institutions and productive communities can make peace durable.

That is where the debate about Adebayo’s approach becomes relevant.

The real test is not whether poverty and insecurity can be mentioned in the same policy document. It is whether government can actually organise security, economic opportunity and human development around the same measurable objective: a Nigerian community in which people are safe enough to work, produce, learn and build a future.

Amadi sent this piece from Awka

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