Nigeria Targets 18.8% Debt-to-GDP, 18.7% Revenue By 2030

The Federal Government has set a target to cut Nigeria’s public debt from 36.07 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030, while raising government revenue from 11.15 per cent to 18.70 per cent of GDP within the same period.

The ambitious fiscal targets are part of the government’s roadmap to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position, reduce the cost of servicing debt and ultimately secure an investment-grade credit rating by 2030.

Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed this yesterday at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited, with the theme, “Achieving Investment-Grade Rating By 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria.”

She said the government also expects the debt-service-to-revenue ratio to fall sharply from 62.93 per cent in 2025 to 21.01 per cent by 2030, easing the pressure that debt servicing currently places on public finances.

Uzoka-Anite, however, stressed that the projections were plan targets whose achievement would depend largely on the effective implementation of fiscal reforms, stronger revenue mobilisation and improved collection efficiency.

According to her, maintaining a sustainable fiscal position is critical to improving Nigeria’s creditworthiness and lowering the cost of accessing capital for both government and the private sector.

She said the government would broaden the country’s revenue base, improve tax compliance, digitalise revenue administration and reduce its dependence on volatile oil revenues.

The minister said the fiscal projections were anchored on reforms already undertaken by the government, including the removal of petrol subsidy, foreign exchange market reforms and the enactment of four major tax laws in 2025 aimed at simplifying tax administration and strengthening revenue collection.

She said increasing revenue alone would not be sufficient, stressing that stronger revenue mobilisation must be matched by more efficient public spending.

Under the plan, capital expenditure is projected to rise to 57.43 per cent of total government expenditure by 2030, from 36.03 per cent in 2025.

Uzoka-Anite said the shift was intended to ensure that a greater proportion of public resources was directed towards infrastructure, human capital development, healthcare and education, which could strengthen productive capacity and support long-term economic growth.

On debt management, the minister said future borrowing would be targeted at expanding productive capacity rather than worsening existing fiscal pressures.

She said government would continue to strengthen debt management, manage refinancing risks and deepen the domestic capital market through instruments such as Sukuk, green bonds and Public-Private Partnerships.

The minister also cited the International Monetary Fund’s estimate that Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit stood at 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, underscoring the need for continued fiscal adjustment and stronger revenue mobilisation.

She said achieving the 2030 targets would be critical to improving investor confidence and positioning Nigeria for an investment-grade credit rating.

Also speaking, founder of DataPro Limited, Mr Abimbola Adeseyoju, said credit ratings had evolved beyond being passive measures of sovereign risk, becoming important determinants of investment flows, borrowing costs and a country’s capacity to finance infrastructure and industrialisation.

Adeseyoju said sovereign ratings serve as a gateway to international capital markets, adding that stronger ratings could improve access to long-term capital needed to finance economic development.

He said Africa was entering a pivotal period in which attracting long-term, patient capital and building economies capable of absorbing external shocks had become increasingly important.

According to him, Nigeria’s drive towards investment-grade status requires three key imperatives: structural reforms and fiscal sustainability; deeper capital markets and greater transparency; and the development of objective, context-aware methodologies that better reflect African economic realities in global credit assessments.