Number Of The Day | 25 | 23 September 2026

Number Of The Day | 25 | 23 September 2026 Vusi.Bafetane Wed, 09/23/2026 - 19:20

Why A Small Rate Hike Can Feel Much Bigger In A Weak Economy

A quarter of a percentage point looks almost trivial on paper. For a household carrying a mortgage, vehicle finance, credit or other variable-rate debt, it can land very differently. The significance of South Africa’s latest interest-rate increase is therefore not simply that the Reserve Bank moved rates by 25 basis points. It is that another cost increase is arriving in an economy where many households and businesses have limited room to absorb it.

The Reserve Bank’s latest decision takes the repo rate to 7.25% and the prime lending rate to 10.75%. It is the second increase of 2026, against a backdrop of renewed inflation pressure, higher oil prices and August consumer inflation of 4.4%. Those numbers describe the policy environment. The harder question is what happens when that environment reaches the monthly budget.

Small percentages become real money

Interest rates work partly by making borrowing more expensive. Higher repayments leave households with less disposable income, which reduces spending and can help cool inflation. It is an intentionally blunt mechanism: the pressure on borrowers is not an accidental side effect but part of the way monetary policy influences demand.

The scale becomes clearer when percentages are translated into rands. In Number of the Day, Francis Herd estimates that a 25-basis-point increase could add about R170 to the monthly repayment on a R1-million bond, around R500 on a R3-million bond and roughly R840 on a R5-million bond.

None of those amounts exists in isolation. A higher home-loan instalment competes with food, transport, insurance, school costs, savings and every other claim on household income. The effect of a rate hike is therefore not only a more expensive bond. It can also change what gets postponed, reduced or abandoned elsewhere in the budget.

Inflation creates a difficult trade-off

The Reserve Bank faces the opposite problem. Leaving inflation unchecked can erode purchasing power across the entire economy, including for people with little or no debt. When fuel and other input costs rise, those pressures can spread through transport, production and retail prices.

This creates an uncomfortable trade-off. Raising rates can hurt indebted consumers now in an attempt to prevent a broader and more persistent inflation problem later.

That tension is especially sharp when the original inflation pressure is being driven partly by developments outside South Africa. Local interest rates cannot reduce the international oil price or end a geopolitical shock. They can, however, try to stop those shocks from feeding into a wider cycle of rising prices and expectations.

Weak growth makes the medicine harder to take

The deeper problem is that South Africa is absorbing this pressure without a strong growth cushion.

The episode points to projected annual growth of 1.2%, only marginally above last year’s 1.1%. That matters because stronger growth can give households and businesses more capacity to withstand tighter financial conditions. Companies expanding into a growing economy have more reason to invest and hire. Workers have a better chance of seeing income and employment opportunities improve.

When growth remains weak, higher borrowing costs land in an economy already struggling to generate enough momentum.

This is why the interest-rate debate cannot end with whether the Reserve Bank should raise, hold or cut. Monetary policy can influence inflation and demand, but it cannot by itself produce the structural conditions required for sustained growth and job creation.

A 25-basis-point increase may be today’s number. The bigger economic test is whether South Africa can build enough growth that the next shock does not have to travel so quickly from a policy decision into the household budget.

References

eNCA. “Reserve Bank hikes interest rates by 25 basis points.” 23 September 2026.

Moneyweb. “Sarb ups repo rate to 7.25%.” 23 September 2026.

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Number of the Day. Episode transcript, 23 September 2026.