2027: Why trusted voices beat ethnic rhetoric in 2023

These are indeed interesting times in Nigeria. But there is nothing happening today that has not happened before. In 2007, for instance, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar fought through the courts to be on the ballot. I was in Adamawa to monitor that election. He was only cleared to contest barely 48 hours to the poll.

My intervention today, however, is different. It is to assist the three major presidential candidates – Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of ADC and Peter Obi of NDC- and their parties in shaping their campaigns ahead of the 2027 general election, by drawing lessons from the 2023 electioneering.

My specialty is political communication. From my vast readings and researches, scholars have come to the conclusion that political communication strategies have become increasingly central to electoral wins, especially when those in charge deploy both traditional and digital channels to interact with prospective voters and shape their perceptions and choices. This is the central finding of my recent research, published in the Redeemer’s University Journal of Management and Social Sciences (Vol. 9, No. 3, 2026), where I surveyed 1,149 voters across Plateau, Nasarawa and the FCT to examine what truly shaped voting decisions in the fiercely contested 2023 presidential election.

Empirical evidence showed that voters’ exposure to strategies such as rallies, town hall meetings, door-to-door campaigns and radio jingles was very high, and that exposure significantly influenced their final choice of candidate.

The biggest revelation is that trusted community voices mattered more than any platform. Multiple regression analysis showed that community influencer communication had the highest predictive value (β =.245), narrowly ahead of interpersonal communication (β =.242), while radio campaigns (β =.228) and social media (β =.205) also significantly influenced voting decisions.

Despite the explosion of digital media, radio’s influence remains enduring. Respondents rated radio jingles as the single most common source of campaign information, ahead of television advertisements, town hall meetings and even some digital formats. Door-to-door mobilisation, local language messaging and interpersonal conversations also ranked highly.

Performance-based framing also worked. The three major candidates – Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of then PDP and Peter Obi of then LP- adopted different communication channels to position themselves as reformers through testimonials of past performance. These testimonials were strategically framed to enhance the candidates’ personalities and capabilities, thereby convincing the electorate of their ability to perform in office.

Interestingly, while identity-based campaign messages were widespread during the election, they did not independently determine voters’ decisions once other communication factors were controlled. Voters appeared to rely more on messages they considered credible, useful and personally relevant than on symbolic ethnic or religious appeals alone.

Similarly, while general political discussions on social media significantly shaped engagement, paid social media advertisements had relatively little effect on helping voters understand candidates or determine their final choices.

Another notable finding was the limited impact of negative campaigning. Respondents overwhelmingly indicated that attacks on rival candidates had little influence on how they voted, suggesting that persuasive information and trusted messengers proved more effective than smear campaigns.

Overall, political communication strategies explained about 33 percent of voters’ decisions, leaving the remaining influence to factors such as candidate credibility, economic concerns, governance records, party loyalty and personal expectations.

The lesson is clear. As political parties inch towards the 2027 general election, they should move away from excessive reliance on ethnic and religious messaging and instead adopt issue-based campaigns built around trusted community leaders, radio, interpersonal engagement and integrated digital communication.

Omipidan, a journalist, media consultant, and an author, writes from Abuja and can be reached via [email protected]