The statistical drop in South Africa’s murder rate should be scrutinised more closely so that the root causes of violence across the country can be better addressed, according to experts.
Murder is down, but still too high.
This seems to be a recurring theme when the South African Police Service releases the quarterly crime statistics, and this past Friday was no different when the stats for the first quarter of the 2026/27 period were made public.
Acting police minister Firoz Cachalia announced a 5.9% drop in murders for April, May and June in 2026, compared with the same period last year, while the total remained shockingly high at 5,427 over the three months in question.
Murder has always topped the list as the statistic against which police performance is measured.
While it is encouraging to see a steady downward trend in the murder figures over the past few years, experts believe South Africans could see a significant decline if the stats were broken down more accurately, giving the police more direct indications of where their time and resources need to be focused.
The same could be said for other categories of crime, such as sexual offences, robberies, and commercial crimes.
According to the figures shared on Friday, contact crimes overall have decreased by 2.3%, compared with the same period last year. This included murder, which has decreased by 5.9%, and sexual offences, which decreased by 0.8%.
Categories of robbery showed a significant decline. Common robbery was down 5.3%, robbery with aggravating circumstances by 14.7% and hijackings by 18.2%.
Unfortunately, attempted murder, assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm and common assault showed countrywide increases of 8.7%, 2.5% and 2%, respectively.
Cachalia again placed heavy emphasis on gangs and organised crime as major contributors to the murder figures, and said alcohol played a large role in the assault statistics.
The police believe their increased efforts to recover stolen firearms played a big role in the lower murder rate. Firearms remain the weapons most often used in the commission of murders, leading to 2,513 deaths – nearly half of the recorded murders for the period in question.
However, the accuracy of the statistics is often questioned, and criminologist John Alexander believes these figures rarely accurately reflect what is truly happening on the ground.
“The metrics that are used for the quarterly crime statistics do not paint a comprehensive enough picture of crime in the country. These announcements only reflect certain categories of crime, not all of them, and they are based solely on cases registered with the police.”
While the crime statistics list certain contributing factors to the murder rate, Alexander believes these need to be further analysed to give a clearer indication of where police resources can be allocated.
“The end goal of the crime statistics is to give the police a clearer picture of where their limited resources need to be concentrated. But a single figure under the category of ‘murder’ does not provide any clarity.
“Farm murders, just like gang killings, are another area of concern. When they are categorised as just another murder, this does not help the police to allocate additional resources to address that very specific concern. You cannot lump gang-related killings, farm attacks and murders during domestic disputes into the same category of crime. They are simply not the same.”
Alexander said the category of commercial crimes was also woefully inadequate, as it provided no clear explanation of the actual crime committed.
“Commercial crime can be fraud, theft, money laundering, extortion, identity theft, or a whole range of other offences that should not be lumped together. This category needs to be broken down so that the public, as well as the police officers themselves, have a better understanding of what exactly is being perpetrated.”
He said this lack of clarity is one of the reasons why international crime syndicates are operating out of South Africa as they believe the SAPS and National Prosecuting Authority are not adequately trained or equipped to properly investigate and prosecute complex cyber crimes.
“Interpol has listed South Africa as a haven for white-collar crimes and cybercrime as we see more and more of these types of offences taking place here,” Alexander said.
Looking at other categories, Alexander said it was funny to still see bank robberies listed as a category on its own as it has not been a major concern in many years. This is because very few banks still carry large sums of cash and have much-improved security measures.
He said stock theft was also a category known to have inaccurate statistics, largely due to the disbanding of specialist stock theft units. Farmers tend to be uninterested in reporting incidents of stock theft due to the low arrest and prosecution rates.
David Bruce, an independent researcher and consultant for the Institute for Security Studies, has spent several years investigating South Africa’s crime statistics, and has highlighted some concerning trends that he also feels need urgent attention.
Chief among these trends is the Eastern Cape’s consistent spot at the top of the country’s per capita murder rate.
While the Eastern Cape ranked fourth in the actual number of murders committed (behind Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape), its per capita rate of 15.8 murders for every 100,000 residents places it as the most violent population in the country.
“The Eastern and Western Cape are consistently at the top of the log. We’ve noted KZN’s numbers surging in recent years and Gauteng is always in the mix as well.
“For the Western Cape, it is easy to point a finger at gang violence in and around Cape Town. But there seems to be no one clear explanation for why the Eastern Cape has been at the top of this list year after year.
“And it seems like there is little interest in addressing this issue. It has become part of the narrative, like people have come to expect it as normal. Why does it seem like the Eastern Cape is being neglected? Why is this issue not being addressed more urgently?” Bruce asked.
While he agreed that a steady decline in the annual murder figures was to be applauded – roughly 16% since the 2023/24 police financial year – he said the first quarter of every year was usually a “lower crime” period.
“Historically, the first quarter does not record the highest crime rates, and spikes in most categories of crimes, particularly murder, see an annual spike in the third quarter, which are the months leading up to the festive season.
“So while it is encouraging to note a lower crime rate for the period between April and June, it is merely a small portion of the whole year,” Bruce said.
During his unpacking of the statistics on Friday, Cachalia made several references to the ongoing Madlanga Commission and how it revealed “levels of decay and degeneration” within the ranks of the SAPS.
He repeatedly referred to the “reset agenda” and how the concerns within the police needed to be addressed, but added that the stats, and the decreases in several categories of crimes, were due to the hard work of dedicated police members.
Alexander, who also operates as a private investigator, said the revelations of the Madlanga Commission also had an impact on the crime statistics through the growing reluctance of South Africans to report criminal activity to the police.
“We see it almost daily. The [number] of people coming to private investigators rather than going to the police is steadily increasing.
“The Madlanga Commission has done immeasurable damage to the police’s reputation, and there is a complete lack of trust in the SAPS. Until that is somehow rebuilt, the crime stats will continue to be only a small reflection of crime in SA.” DM
