AGOA EXIT: Good news for South African apple, pear and grape shipments

South Africa’s exclusion from a major US trade agreement has dealt another blow to fruit exporters. However, there is some good news for the country’s apple, pear and table grape industries.

Despite losing preferential access to the American market, South African deciduous fruit exports are forecast to increase in the 2026/27 season.

According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), higher availability of export-quality fruit and expanding opportunities in Asian markets are expected to drive growth.

South African apple exports are forecast to increase by 4% to 780 000 tonnes. Pear shipments are expected to rise 3% to 270 000 tonnes, while table grape exports could grow 1% to 358 000 tonnes.

AGOA EXIT: What it means for South African fruit exports

The positive outlook comes despite growing trade uncertainty with the US.

According to a statement released this week, South Africa and Rwanda are set to lose their duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), effective 1 January 2027.

Introduced in 2000, the agreement gives eligible African countries tariff-free access to the US market for more than 1 800 products.

US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer said President Donald Trump had found that both countries’ governments were “engaging in practices that are inconsistent with Agoa’s eligibility criteria.”

South African deciduous fruit already faces a 12.5% US import duty. FAS expects shipments to remain low, with table grape exports to the US plunging 84% in 2025/26.

New markets offer fresh hope for exporters

However, thanks to diversification, fruit exporters are finding opportunities elsewhere.

South African apple shipments to **China **increased 52% year on year between January and August 2026. The growth followed China’s removal of its 10% tariff on South African apples in May.

Exports to **India **also increased by 52%, despite a hefty 50% import tariff.

“The **UK **and **EU **also remain major destinations, with South Africa benefiting from duty-free access to both markets,” writes *Fruitnet’s *Mike Knowles.

South African apple production is also expected to rebound by 7% to 1.35 million tonnes, driven by higher-yielding varieties and younger trees entering production.

Pear production is forecast to increase by 2% to 540 000 tonnes, supporting a 3% recovery in exports.

“South Africa was the EU’s leading pear supplier in 2024/25, accounting for 43 per cent of imports,” Knowles added. “Alongside the EU, its principal markets for pears were Russia, UAE, India and the UK.”

More demand in Asia

Meanwhile, South Africa has made its first table grape shipments to the Philippines, with apples and pears looking to follow suit.

South African grape exporters are also preparing their first consignments to South Korea after securing market access this year.

The outlook is not entirely positive, however. FAS forecasts a 3% decline in table grape production, following the previous season’s record harvest.

The agency also flagged persistent delays at the Port of Cape Town. Weather disruptions and lower throughput affected exports during the most recent campaign.

Nevertheless, growing demand, production and new market opportunities offer some encouragement for South Africa’s fruit exporters.