The Economist: Why Tinubu May Win 2027 Election Despite Growing Public Discontent

· President is universally disliked, cost of living crisis will decide poll, says ADC

· NDC: No pathway to Tinubu’s re-election without manipulation

· ** Presidency defends Tinubu’s reforms, tackles opposition**

Deji Elumoye, Chuks Okocha, Sunday Aborisade in Abuja and Sunday Ehigiator in Lagos

Despite growing public discontent over insecurity, economic hardship and the performance of government, President Bola Tinubu may still be re-elected in the 2027 presidential election, according to London-based The Economist Magazine.

But reacting to the editorial, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) argued that the cost-of-living crisis confronting Nigerians, rather than religion or ethnicity, would play the decisive role in determining how voters cast their ballots in the 2027 general election.

While the ADC stated that it, “agreed with the story that President Tinubu is universally disliked, but we disagree that he could win the election.”

Equally, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) faulted the conclusion reached by The Economist that President Tinubu could retain power in the 2027 presidential election despite his significant unpopularity.

The opposition party questioned the basis of the publication’s assessment, arguing that there was no pathway to the President’s re-election with rigging the process.

But the Presidency yesterday rose in stout defence of the reforms embarked upon by President Bola Tinubu’s administration over three years ago.
Presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, in a post on his verified X handle, @aonanuga1956, referred to President Tinubu’s argument in his October 1, 2026 Independence address that past governments postponed difficult economic decisions and allowed distortions in the economy to deepen.

President Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC); former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the ADC, and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), are the three leading candidates in the January 2027 election.

The Economist attributed Tinubu’s prospect to what it described as Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics,” including political cynicism, a divided opposition, religious considerations, the advantages of incumbency and historically low voter turnout in some areas.

In the article titled, ‘Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,’ it noted that Tinubu appeared relatively unconcerned about his re-election prospects despite the challenges confronting the country.

It further stated that the President returned from Paris on September 29, after a month-long stay in Europe, having previously extended what was described as his “working holiday” by several days.

“On the face of it, Mr. Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” the publication stated, pointing to Nigeria’s worsening security situation and economic pressures.

It added, “Nigeria is suffering a worsening security crisis, with people kidnapped and killed by bandits or insurgents on a near-daily basis.”

The Economist also noted that while Tinubu’s economic reforms had been, “lauded by investors”, they had yet to translate into improved living conditions for many Nigerians.

“His economic reforms, though lauded by investors, have yet to make life better for most of the country’s 240m people,” it stated.

According to the magazine, the situation appeared even more politically challenging because some of Tinubu’s potential challengers were more popular in parts of northern Nigeria, particularly areas experiencing severe insecurity and economic deprivation.

It, however, argued that the President’s apparent confidence was not necessarily a reflection of widespread satisfaction with his administration.

“That he is not says less about him and more about Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics,” *The Economist *stated.

The publication used Borno State to illustrate the challenges facing the Tinubu’s administration, describing the state as being in the grip of an insurgency that has lasted for two decades.

It argued that jihadist factions were fighting the government and one another, while making money through kidnapping, extortion and the looting of farmers.

According to the publication, the violence had damaged the local economy, leaving young people without jobs and traders without customers.

It quoted a 27-year-old resident of Maiduguri as saying he was forced to travel to neighbouring Chad to sell grain because residents could no longer afford to buy it.

The resident reportedly said young people “pack all their things and leave Borno state” for Chad, Cameroon or Ghana, “because if you sit down here, there is no food in this country.”

The Economist stated that the President’s re-election campaign was centred on economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, which it said had brought “a degree of stability to Nigeria”.

It listed falling inflation, increased government revenue and improving investment as some of the developments associated with the reforms.

However, it stated that the impact of the reforms had been more difficult for vulnerable communities in Borno, where a poor harvest, cuts in aid and higher energy costs had compounded economic difficulties.

The publication reported that annual inflation in August remained around 15 per cent, while food inflation was closer to 20 per cent.

According to the publication, the economic and security situation had affected Tinubu’s standing in northern Nigeria, where the APC had traditionally performed strongly.

It recalled that Tinubu won 54 per cent of the vote in Borno State in the 2023 presidential election.

However, citing recent polling by SBM Intelligence, the publication said Tinubu was now less popular in Borno than Obi and Atiku..

It said some residents of Maiduguri were prepared to “fight back” at the ballot box in January.

Nevertheless, The Economist argued that dissatisfaction with the President might not by itself be sufficient to remove him from office.

“Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections,” it stated.

It also identified the fragmentation of the opposition as a factor.

It noted that Obi and Atiku had not formed a joint ticket, arguing that this could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind a single candidate.

Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, it said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”

The magazine added that in Maiduguri, some voters reportedly said they did not even know who else was on the ballot apart from Tinubu.

Religion was another factor identified by the publication. It noted that Tinubu and his vice-presidential candidate, Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State, are both Muslims, as are most people in northern Nigeria.

The publication quoted Cheta Nwanze, head of SBM Intelligence, as saying: “The fact that the president has stuck with the Muslim-Muslim ticket resonates with quite a number of people.”

According to The Economist, religious identity could also influence voters considering Obi, a Catholic.

“Even voters who like Mr. Obi may rule him out because he is a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running-mate may not be enough,” it stated.

The publication also identified what it described as political cynicism among some voters as perhaps the most significant factor.

It argued that some voters in northern communities might not judge Tinubu’s administration solely on its record because of their long experience of poor public services.

“Many people are living where there has been no real security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s expectations get lower and lower,” MacEbong was quoted as saying.

The publication cited the case of a woman in Maiduguri who said she intended to vote for Tinubu as a “thank you” for medicine she received at a government hospital.

It further argued that prolonged deprivation could cause citizens to place less faith in government as an instrument for improving their circumstances.

“With their home state badly governed for so long, many people are more likely to trust God and their families to improve their lives than a government that rarely has,” it stated.

The Economist also linked Tinubu’s prospects to voter turnout, particularly in areas affected by insecurity.

It argued that although many voters might be disappointed with the government, they might not necessarily turn that dissatisfaction into votes against the incumbent.

“As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment,” the publication added.

It cited Borno as an example, arguing that insecurity could discourage residents from travelling to polling stations.

The publication noted that voter turnout in Borno was below 20 per cent in the 2023 election, compared with 27 per cent nationwide.

It also suggested that regional and identity considerations could influence voting patterns elsewhere, particularly in Lagos, Tinubu’s home state.

“In parts of the south, especially Mr. Tinubu’s home of Lagos, plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’,” it stated.

Concluding its analysis, The Economist linked Tinubu’s apparent confidence to these broader electoral dynamics, observing: “No wonder Mr. Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended holidays in Paris.”

Cost of Living Crisis Will Decide Election, Says ADC

However, reacting to the publication, ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi said:

“We think the story is based on assumptions that are not necessarily correct. We agree with the story that President Tinubu is universally disliked, but we disagree that he could win the election.
“The article focuses on the role that religion and ethnicity could play in the election, but the argument is overstated. Nigerians across all divides are united under the cost of living crisis that the Tinubu administration has plunged them into.
“And this will determine how they will vote more than anything else.

The article also suggests that the President does not appear like he is worried about losing the election. If it is true, then he doesn’t understand the mood of the country.
“The only way the APC could think of winning the election is to rig it. We know that and we have our strategy to stop them.”

NDC: No Pathway to Tinubu’s Re-election Without Manipulation

Reacting to the article yesterday, NDC’s National Publicity Secretary, Osa Director, asked how The Economist could acknowledge concerns about the President’s popularity and still arrive at a conclusion suggesting that he would win the forthcoming election.

“The Economist article agreed that Tinubu is so unpopular. So, how did it arrive at the conclusion that he would still win in spite of that?” the party asked.

The NDC argued that the publication left critical issues unexplained, particularly the relationship between the factors it identified as weaknesses for the President and its ultimate assessment of his electoral prospects.

“The article decided to leave many things unsaid. Its conclusion was not based on facts and statistics that itself identifies as Tinubu’s Achilles heels,” the party said.

The NDC further disputed the suggestion that the President’s reported political difficulties would necessarily translate into an electoral victory, insisting that the opposition’s assessment of the 2027 contest differed significantly from that of the international publication.

“For us at the NDC, we don’t see any pathway to victory for Tinubu save outright rigging and manipulation,” the party declared.

The opposition party, however, provided no independently verified evidence in the statement to substantiate the allegation that the 2027 election would be rigged or manipulated in favour of the President.

It nevertheless claimed that Nigerians would be prepared to resist any attempt to compromise the electoral process, saying: “Nigerians are ready to resist this time around.”

Presidency Defends Tinubu’s Reforms, Tackles Opposition

The Presidency yesterday rose in stout defence of the reforms embarked upon by President Bola Tinubu’s administration over three years ago.
According to Onanuga, previous administrations focused on the symptoms of Nigeria’s economic problems while allowing deeper structural weaknesses to take hold.

“They focused on symptoms while allowing the disease to take hold deep within the fabric of our society. We spent enormous sums sustaining inefficient arrangements that were never intended to last. We hid from difficult truths and passed the consequences from one generation to the next”, he said.

The presidential media aide said one of the key points critics appeared to ignore was the President’s argument that his administration’s reforms did not create Nigeria’s economic weaknesses but were designed to confront them.
Onanuga, while quoting Tinubu said “our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them. Now, as certain influential but regressive voices would have us abandon the treatment and return to the abuse of addictive subsidies, we must resist their siren song. We must remember why we began this journey and how far we have already come”.

The President, in the Independence Day address, said Nigeria’s economy had grown by more than four per cent this year, with both the oil and non-oil sectors contributing to what he described as a renewed period of stable growth. NigeriaInvestment Guide

According to Tinubu: “For too long, the promise of Nigeria was undermined by choices that postponed difficult decisions and allowed deep economic distortions to grow.

“By 2023, poverty was rising, and hope was nearly gone. The country’s situation was darker than ever. We had no choice but to act”, Tinubu said in the address.

The President likened the country’s economic condition to that of a cancer patient faced with the choice of undergoing painful treatment with the prospect of recovery or relying on painkillers while the underlying illness continued to spread.

“Nigeria’s leaders chose morphine while praying for a miracle that never came”, Tinubu said.
In another post, Onanuga accused politicians criticising President Tinubu’s Independence Day broadcast of preparing their reactions before the speech was broadcast on Thursday morning.

According to him, the criticisms suggested that some of the President’s opponents either did not read or properly listen to the October 1 address before issuing their responses.

Onanuga pointed out “immutable truths” from the speech, particularly Tinubu’s defence of his administration’s economic reforms and his warning against a return to the subsidy regime.