Fresh capital, old problems for Zimbabwe mining

ARE investors still too wary of Zimbabwe’s mining sector?

Two international miners – Caledonia Mining and Tharisa – think so, and both are committing significant capital to projects in the country.

But their experience also indicates that operating successfully in Zimbabwe still depends on the company involved, what it mines and the arrangements it has in place to manage foreign exchange, regulation and government relations.

Caledonia, which has operated in Zimbabwe for 20 years and is developing the Bilboes gold project, is particularly optimistic about the country.

At a capital markets presentation in New York on Wednesday, Caledonia made a concerted case to investors that Zimbabwe’s mining risk is overstated.

“Our long-term strategy is that we are 100% focused on Zim,” said Maurice Mason, its vice-president for corporate development. “We are experts operating in Zim and we think the country’s risk is significantly mispriced.”

The company had found opportunities where markets misjudged the risk, he said. Caledonia knew Zimbabwe’s procedures, could navigate its regulations and bureaucracy and had established relationships in the country.

Tharisa, which is developing the Karo platinum project on Zimbabwe’s Great Dyke, takes a similar view.

Asked whether investors regarded Zimbabwe as riskier than conditions justified, Tharisa’s head of investor relations and communications Ilja Graulich said: “Yes, I agree with that.”

He pointed to the company’s recent $300m bond raising for Karo. The issue was oversubscribed despite some investors on the roadshow still asking basic questions about Zimbabwe, including whether Harare was safe.

“I’ll take my girlfriend, the kids, anybody. I’ll walk through Harare any day of the week,” Graulich said.

“There’s capital that’s willing to be put to work.”

Caledonia has seen similar investor interest. It raised $150m through a seven-year convertible bond earlier this year after demand from US institutional investors exceeded $600m.

CEO Mark Learmonth said at the time the transaction showed Zimbabwe could no longer simply be regarded as “uninvestable”.

“Zimbabwe actually is becoming, relatively speaking, less risky,” he said.

The funds form part of the financing for Bilboes, which is expected to produce 200,000 ounces of gold a year from 2029.

Better backdrop

There are also signs of broader economic improvement, although they come with qualifications.

Zimbabwean corporate executive and economic researcher Mutemwa Ushewokunze argues in a LinkedIn post that the country’s current stability rests on three pillars – greater political predictability, tighter monetary policy and a favourable commodity cycle.

But he also describes those pillars as vulnerabilities. Zimbabwe has benefited heavily from strong gold prices, while debt distress, arrears and a narrow financing base are still unresolved.

For mining companies, the picture is more complicated. Better macro conditions may improve the operating environment, but company-specific experience and protection still matter.

Caledonia has spent years learning how to work within Zimbabwe’s system.

“There is a bureaucracy to go through to do things,” Learmonth said. “That’s simply just making sure that you press the right buttons in the right order.”

Caledonia was “very, very good at that” after years in the country, he said. “It’s just process, it’s not an obstacle.”

Bilboes CEO Victor Gapare, who has operated in Zimbabwe since 1987 and was previously president of the Chamber of Mines, said Caledonia had never struggled to get money out of Zimbabwe because it received US dollars for its gold sales.

The company also points to improving government support for large capital projects. Learmonth said Zimbabwean authorities had helped Caledonia move about $15m of equipment for Blanket mine’s solar project through the border.

“The Zim government facilitated that being transferred seamlessly through the border. It was really a very good experience,” he said.

Foreign exchange

That experience does not mean Zimbabwe’s foreign-exchange problems have disappeared.

PGM producers have had a different experience. Valterra Platinum said in July that it still lacked a “sustainable solution” for roughly $100m in historic export proceeds from previous years, although payments on current proceeds had improved.

Zimbabwe’s foreign-currency retention system compels miners to convert 30% of their dollar earnings into local currency. Problems arise when companies cannot readily access that local-currency equivalent.

Valterra said the problem was industry-wide and that it had been engaging the Reserve Bank, government and its peers.

Implats has also had to manage restricted access to export proceeds at Zimplats, although its position improved materially during the 2026 financial year.

Head of investor relations Johan Theron said Zimplats started the year with about R962m in local currency that it had historically been unable to access. Under a new arrangement, it secured access to R746m, while the year-end balance largely reflected newer proceeds expected to be used going forward.

The arrangement allows Zimplats to use part of its surrender proceeds in cash and part through offsets against taxes, royalties and customs duties. Implats said about $99m had been offset this way.

Theron said the change made Zimbabwe more investable, not only for Zimplats but more broadly.

“Any policy that is business-friendly in the sense that it’s easier to have commercial success and proper business functioning will make it better for the country,” he said.

Caledonia earns dollars from gold, has operated in Zimbabwe for two decades and says it understands how to navigate the system.

For Tharisa, managing that risk has meant building greater certainty into the project itself.

Karo last month signed a special mining lease with the Zimbabwean government covering 23,903 hectares for an initial 25 years. Tharisa said it provided long-term security of tenure and a fiscal and operational framework. More than $240m has already been invested in the project.

Graulich told MiningMX the special mining lease became a statutory instrument, giving it the force of law.

He said the agreement covers issues such as tax, imports, employment and royalties. Tharisa then signed a five-year offtake agreement under which Valterra Platinum will buy Karo’s PGM concentrate.

Zimbabwe can nevertheless still catch investors unawares.

Late last year the government proposed doubling the gold royalty from 5% to 10%, catching Caledonia off guard.

“We were horrified. We’d not seen that coming,” Learmonth said.

After industry engagement the proposal was changed within weeks. The royalty remained at 5%, with the 10% rate applying only if gold exceeds $5,000 an ounce.

Learmonth regards the episode as evidence that government was prepared to listen. It also illustrates why miners want visibility over the rules governing long-term investments.

For Caledonia CFO Ross Jerrard, the requirement is consistency.

“All we want is the goalpost to remain the same,” he said, referring to long-term tenure, visibility and the ability to plan.

Ushewokunze makes a similar point. Zimbabwe, he argues, is in a stronger economic position than two years ago, but the real test will come when the external environment becomes less favourable.

The question is whether monetary and fiscal discipline can hold if commodity prices weaken or other pressures rise.

The capital raised for Bilboes and Karo shows international investors are willing to reassess Zimbabwe. Increasingly, the question may be less whether Zimbabwe is investable than which companies and projects are best placed to manage its risks.

Source: Fresh capital, old problems for Zimbabwe mining – Miningmx

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