Renaissance Capital Raises Dangote Refinery’s Valuation By 33.4% to N700

51 African Nations Participate in Dangote Refinery’s Initial Public Offer

***Firm says subscriptions received from over 90 nations globally ***

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja and Peter Uzoho in Lagos

Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, representing a potential 33.4 per cent upside from the refinery’s initial public offering (IPO) price of N525 per share.

The investment research firm attributed the revised valuation to stronger refining margins and better-than-expected financial and operational performance in the first nine months of 2026, with revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and net profit all exceeding its projections.

In an update at the weekend titled: “Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,” RCA highlighted the refinery’s robust earnings growth and improving financial position as key factors underpinning its more optimistic assessment.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported revenue of $22.5 billion and net profit of $4.7 billion, marking a significant turnaround from the $117.2 million loss recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

Revenue increased by 144 per cent from $9.2 billion in the preceding year, while EBITDA surged nearly nine-fold to $5.5 billion from $627.6 million.

The refinery’s operating cash flow also rose more than ten-fold to $3.68 billion, reflecting its growing capacity to generate cash from operations amid stronger refining margins and improved performance.

The improved earnings translated into a stronger balance sheet, with the company moving from a net debt position of $1.73 billion as of September 2025 to a net cash position of $651 million by September 2026.

The shift, alongside the stronger cash flow, it said, points to an improvement in the refinery’s liquidity and financial resilience as it consolidates its position in the domestic and international petroleum products markets.

RCA’s revised valuation offers a more bullish assessment of the refinery’s prospects following its strong nine-month performance.

However, the projected upside depends on the sustainability of refining margins, operating performance and broader market conditions.

Meanwhile, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals yesterday announced that its ongoing Initial Public Offer (IPO) has attracted overwhelming participation from investors across Africa and the global investment community, with subscriptions received from more than 90 countries, including investors from 51 of Africa’s 54 nations.

The scale and geographical spread of participation make the transaction Africa’s first truly pan-African public offering, demonstrating growing confidence in African-led industrial development and an increasing appetite among Africans to take ownership of strategic assets built on the continent.

Dangote Refinery disclosed this in a statement, saying the offer has already rewritten the record books, becoming the largest public offering ever launched in the Nigerian capital market on its opening day and surpassing the previous African record within its first ten days.

It said the achievement has been driven by strong demand from retail investors, pension funds, institutional investors, asset managers, fintech platforms, and members of the investing public.

A source close to the management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery described the milestone as a defining moment for Africa’s capital markets and economic future.

“This offering is far more than a capital-raising exercise. It represents a historic opportunity for Africans and global investors to participate directly in the ownership of one of the continent’s most transformative industrial assets. The impressive participation from investors across Africa reflects a shared belief that Africans should not merely consume the benefits of industrialisation but also own the assets that drive it and share in the wealth they create,” the source said.

The remarkable investor response comes amid the refinery’s strong operational and financial performance.

According to the source, the refinery’s current performance has substantially outpaced the assumptions used in arriving at the IPO valuation.

“The refinery’s financial and operational performance has progressed significantly beyond the baseline assumptions underpinning the IPO. The combination of scale, efficiency, market reach and operational momentum continues to create substantial value for shareholders and reinforces confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory”, the source said.

The transaction has also accelerated the integration of African capital markets through pioneering cross-border collaborations involving Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia and Kenya, helping to simplify participation and broaden investor access across the continent.

Management said it views the IPO as a powerful demonstration of the growing sophistication, depth and interconnectedness of African capital markets, while also providing a template for future continent-wide investment offerings.

The refinery reiterated that the IPO offers investors a unique opportunity to participate in the ownership of one of Africa’s largest and fastest-growing industrial enterprises, with the potential for USD-linked dividends, subject to the company’s dividend policy and applicable regulatory approvals.

With the offer scheduled to close on 27 October 2026, the company has intensified investor education and engagement activities across key markets to ensure broader inclusion and participation. It also emphasized that no further extension of the offer period is currently envisaged.

Speaking further on the significance of the transaction, the source close to management stated:

“We are witnessing the emergence of a new era in African industrial ownership and capital-market development. The extraordinary response from investors across 51 African countries and more than 90 nations around the world is a powerful vote of confidence in Africa’s future and in the ability of world-class African enterprises to generate sustainable long-term value for shareholders.”

Dangote Petroleum Refinery expressed appreciation to regulators, issuing houses, stockbrokers, financial institutions, fintech partners, investor associations, community leaders and the investing public for their support and participation throughout the offer period.