De Beers sale nears deadline…

A national asset at a turning point

For Botswana, the possible sale of De Beers is more than a corporate transaction. It is a decision about who will control the company at the heart of the country’s diamond economy – and who will bear the cost if the business cannot recover from its worst downturn in decades.

The government is nearing the end of its review of Anglo American’s proposed sale of its 85 percent De Beers stake. Due diligence is expected to conclude by the end of September, according to people familiar with the process and public statements by officials. Botswana must then decide whether to join the preferred bidder, exercise its pre-emption rights and buy Anglo American’s stake, or pursue another ownership structure. The transaction could close in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Botswana has hired Lazard and Switzerland-based Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique, or CBH, to advise on buying all or part of De Beers. The reported price for Anglo American’s stake is about $1 billion – far below earlier valuations – but the purchase would be only the first financial commitment. Any new owner would inherit a company facing weak demand, low prices, excess inventory and the costly challenge of positioning natural diamonds against laboratory-grown stones.

A sale shrouded in uncertainty

The process has already produced a public disagreement over who is leading it. In July, Moeti Mohwasa, minister for State President, Defence and Security, told Parliament that Anglo American had selected the Global Diamond Consortium as its preferred bidder. The consortium is led by Gareth Penny, who ran De Beers from 2006 to 2010. Potential participants may include diamond-producing countries such as Angola and Namibia, along with private investors.

Anglo American Chief Executive Duncan Wanblad later said the company was not negotiating exclusively with one consortium and still had multiple bidders. The conflicting accounts show that a preferred bidder is not the same as a signed transaction. Botswana’s options remain open until definitive agreements are reached.

That matters because Botswana owns 15 percent of De Beers and has pre-emption rights over Anglo American’s shares. The rights give the government unusual leverage as Anglo American exits the diamond business. Botswana could proceed alongside a preferred bidder, exercise its rights alone or with partners, or pursue another structure.

Three paths for Botswana

The key decision may not be whether to buy, but how much control to seek. Botswana could remain a minority shareholder while partnering with a private consortium, acquire a larger stake with outside investors, or seek full control of De Beers. Each option would bring a different balance of influence, financial exposure and operational responsibility.

The appeal of a larger stake is clear. Diamonds have financed public services and helped transform Botswana from one of the world’s poorest nations after independence into an upper-middle-income economy. Debswana, the mining joint venture owned equally by Botswana and De Beers, operates the country’s major mines. A change in De Beers’ ownership could therefore affect the commercial and political arrangements supporting Botswana’s main export industry.

The Debswana connection

The relationship was strengthened by the 2025 agreement between Botswana and De Beers. It extended Debswana’s mining licences through 2054 and increased the share of rough diamonds available to the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company. The agreement also created a Diamonds for Development Fund to support economic diversification.

That framework makes the ownership transition more complicated. De Beers is not merely a collection of mines, brands and sales operations. Its relationship with Debswana affects how diamonds are marketed, investment in Botswana’s mines and the value of the government’s 15 percent stake. Its financial health also affects revenues for a government still heavily dependent on diamonds.

What the buyer must bring

The buyer will be judged on more than its ability to pay. Botswana must assess whether it has enough capital to support De Beers through a prolonged downturn, access to international markets and a credible strategy for maintaining demand for natural diamonds as laboratory-grown stones become cheaper.

A consortium including producer countries could give Botswana and its partners greater influence over marketing and investment. Yet it could also make difficult commercial decisions more politically complicated.

De Beers’ valuation collapse

Anglo American has reportedly written down the value of De Beers by $2.3 billion, while reports have valued its 85 percent stake at about $1 billion. De Beers was valued at roughly $18 billion in 2001. The contrast reflects the collapse in expectations surrounding natural diamonds, despite the company’s strong brand.

Recent results offer little comfort. De Beers reported an underlying EBITDA loss of $113 million in the first half of 2026 after a decline in its average rough-diamond price index. That followed a $511 million loss in 2025, compared with $25 million in 2024.

A market under pressure

Production is recovering, but higher output offers little relief while buyers remain cautious and inventories stay high. Additional supply could put further pressure on prices. De Beers’ challenge is not simply mining diamonds; it is restoring the link between supply, price and consumer demand that once made the business highly profitable.

Laboratory-grown diamonds, which are chemically similar to mined stones but much cheaper to produce, have changed the market. Natural-diamond producers have responded by emphasizing provenance, durability, emotional significance and the economic benefits of mining. Those arguments may support demand, but they have not removed the pressure on prices.

The cost of greater control

For Botswana, the low valuation is both an opportunity and a warning. A price of about $1 billion makes Anglo American’s stake more affordable than during De Beers’ strongest years, but the discount reflects serious risks. Botswana would be buying a company that may require additional capital, faces uncertain markets and could take years to recover. A lower purchase price does not mean a lower cost of ownership.

The September review will therefore need to examine De Beers’ cash position, capital requirements, debt, inventory, sales contracts and mine plans. Advisers must also assess bidders’ assumptions about diamond prices, consumer demand, laboratory-grown stones and the funding needed to maintain the brand and distribution network.

Influence or responsibility?

Remaining a minority shareholder could protect Botswana’s treasury from excessive risk, but it would leave the government dependent on a controlling owner whose priorities might differ from its own. A larger stake would provide more influence over De Beers and its relationship with Debswana, while exposing the state to more losses. The choice is between influence without control and control with responsibility.

Botswana’s economic position makes that trade-off sensitive. The country has long sought to reduce its dependence on diamonds, and the Diamonds for Development Fund is intended to support that effort. A state-led acquisition could retain more value at home, but it might also direct public money toward stabilizing a troubled international business.

Gareth Penny’s consortium

The bidder group led by Mr. Penny brings experience and symbolism. As a former De Beers chief executive, he understands the company’s operations, relationships and history. That experience could reassure investors seeking diamond-sector leadership rather than a purely financial owner.

Still, experience will not solve the industry’s problems. The consortium must secure financing, establish governance and explain how it will compete in a market where traditional assumptions about scarcity and value have weakened. It must also convince Botswana that its interests will be protected.

Anglo American’s exit

Anglo American is restructuring its portfolio and selling or reviewing assets that no longer fit its priorities. De Beers, once a crown jewel, has become a drag on results during the diamond downturn. A sale would allow Anglo American to focus its capital and management elsewhere.

Its challenge is to secure a credible exit without making Botswana feel sidelined. Botswana is not an ordinary minority investor: it co-owns De Beers, is an equal partner in Debswana and hosts some of the company’s most important mines.

A test of economic sovereignty

The decision will be watched beyond the diamond industry. It will test how an African mineral producer uses ownership rights when a multinational company exits a strategically important asset. It will also show whether Botswana can convert its position as shareholder and host government into lasting influence without taking on an unsustainable financial burden.

The end-of-September deadline is not the end of the process. It is when Botswana’s private analysis must lead to a public choice: whether De Beers is a distressed asset worth rescuing, a strategic institution worth controlling, or a risky company better managed with an outside partner.

The decision will determine not only who owns De Beers, but who bears the consequences if the diamond market fails to recover.

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