Christina Njala of Matapira village, Traditional Authority Mazengera in Lilongwe, has seen her harvests collapse under erratic rains. A mother of five, she recalls how the rains ceased when her maize was tasselling, leaving her with only seven bags from land that once yielded over 40.
“As of August, only one bag of maize remains for my family. By September, we will need food assistance.
“If El Niño comes, I can imagine the pain. It will be a hard situation,” she said.
On the upcoming farming season which is expected to be characterised by El Niño conditions, Njala said she was not aware of the forecast, but feared the situation could worsen and plunge her household into yet another cycle of food insecurity.
Njala, a mother of five said there should be a solution to the situation, otherwise many people could perish.
Her fears are echoed at national level.
The Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma) has already activated anticipatory drought interventions across 23 districts.
Commissioner Wilson Moleni confirmed that an El Niño preparedness plan has been drawn up with stakeholders, designed to cushion households ahead of the new farming season.
Njala: Only one bag of maize remains. I Andrew Viano
Dodma’s early actions aim to prevent the worst impacts of climatic shocks that, according to the National Statistical Office’s Sixth Integrated Household Survey (IHS6), have affected nearly half of Malawian households.
The survey shows 49.9 per cent experienced drought, 47.9 per cent a late onset of rains, 44.6 per cent an early cessation, and 39.5 per cent too little rainfall.
Other shocks included excessively heavy rains or hailstorms (28.4 per cent), cyclones (22.7 per cent), strong winds or whirlwinds (21.5 per cent), very high temperatures (19.9 per cent) and floods (19.1 per cent).
The Thirty‑Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof‑33), issued on Friday for the 2026/27 season, presented a mixed picture: better rainfall prospects in the northern and central regions, but below‑normal rainfall expected in the south.
Warmer than normal temperatures are also forecast.
Director of the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (Card) at Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources Innocent Pangapanga warned that the shocks are eroding livelihoods.
“Drought, delayed onset of rains and early cessation are particularly concerning because they directly affect agricultural production and household livelihoods,” he said.
“National Food Reserve Agency [NFRA] and the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation [Admarc] should be well funded, and people should have opportunities to earn so they can afford food.”
Njala’s story reflects a wider crisis. Data from the National Statistical Office’s Sixth Integrated Household Survey (IHS6) shows that 49.9 percent of households experienced drought in the past five years, making it the most common climate shock.
Nearly half also reported late onset of rains (47.9 per cent), early cessation (44.6 per cent) or too little rainfall (39.5 per cent).
Other shocks included excessively heavy rains or hailstorms (28.4 per cent), cyclones (22.7 per cent), strong winds or whirlwinds (21.5 per cent), very high temperatures (19.9 per cent) and floods (19.1 per cent).
An early onset of rains was reported by 10.3 per cent of households, while landslides affected 5.7 percent.
Agricultural specialist Leonard Chimwaza, said: “Farmers must practise good agricultural methods. There is a need for special campaigns in all districts to prepare farmers for unpredictable weather.”
According to Dodma, an El Niño preparedness plan is in place, developed with stakeholders to help the country brace for the new farming season.
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