Tinubu’s northern test begins

Barring any hitch, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will this morning flag off his 2027 presidential campaign in Kaduna, North-West, Nigeria.

The main campaign is expected to hold at the Kaduna Township Stadium, with all the seven North-West governors expected to attend, Weekend Trust reports.

The event, according to various analyses, is significant in the current bid by not only the ruling party to woo the electorate to vote for its presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections, but more significantly, it would trigger full-fledged campaigns by most of the parties in all the states of the federation.

Presidential and National Assembly elections campaign, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), began on Tuesday, 19 August 2026 and is supposed to end on Friday, January 15, 2027.

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Our correspondents report that the political parties contesting the next presidential elections have not shown much enthusiasm in kick-starting their campaigns since the blast of the whistle, but have been mainly enmeshed in controversies surrounding the naming of their campaign councils.

Weekend Trust reports that presidential candidates usually choose the flag-off of the campaigns at regions other than their base.

Goodluck Jonathan for instance flagged off his 2011 presidential campaign in Lafia, Nasarawa State, and in 2015 flagged off his re-election campaign at Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS) in Lagos

After him, Muhammadu Buhari flagged off his 2015 presidential campaign in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State at the Adokiye Amesiemeka Sports Complex in Igwurita-Ali, Ikwerre Local Government Area and in 2019, took it to the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo, the capital of Akwa Ibom State, on December 28, 2018.

Tinubu, as the APC presidential candidate had in 2023 chosen Jos, the Plateau State capital in North Central Nigeria, to kick off his campaign with the probable reason being that Jos was the home state of his campaign Director General, Simon Bako Lalong.

For the APC currently, the release of the names of members of the campaign council was dogged by controversies until the list was suspended and later reviewed to remove names considered controversial or politically inappropriate.

With the indication that the APC is now ready to get down to brass tacks, the concern has shifted to why the party’s apparatchik settled for Kaduna as the place to flag off its campaign given the issues that make the state appear the least likely for such considerations.

Issues like the level of insecurity in the state and the charged political atmosphere as an aftermath of the detention of the immediate past governor of the state, Malam Nasir el-Rufai easily resurface to probe this decision.

Our correspondents report that there have been chants of ‘Ba ma yi’ in many political gatherings in the North lately due to perceived high cost of living and hardship believed to have been wrought by the current administration led by President Tinubu.

There is also the known fact that the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, when he contested in previous elections on other platforms, always led at the polls in Kaduna State.

There are also reservations over the choice of venue, the Kaduna Township Stadium which is considered not spacious enough for a gathering with such an anticipated mass gathering. Weekend Trust, however, gathered that other venues like the Ahmadu Bello stadium is under construction and the Murtala square is hosting a polo tournament.

Late President Muhammadu Buhari held his campaign rally at the Ahmadu Bello Stadium located in the state capital.

President Buhari was welcomed by Governor Nasir El-Rufai and other top officials of the ruling party.

In year 2015, former President Goodluck Jonathan held his campaign rally at Ahmadu Bello Stadium where he was received by party leaders and supporters.

Those in the top APC campaign councils, however, share different views.

Baffa Babba Dan Agundi, who is the Director-General of the Tinubu Support Group in Kano, explained that Kaduna is strategic because it is the centre of the entire northern Nigeria.

He said, “While Mr President will go to other states as well, he is flagging off the North-West campaign in Kaduna because it is very important to him. It is the centre of the region. But it doesn’t matter any state he chooses to do it, be it Kaduna or elsewhere.”

On the issue of insecurity, he said, “The simple logic is that the president met this insecurity handed over to him by a northern president, the late Muhammadu Buhari. And with the security architecture then dominated by northern people, the former president could not succeed in ending insurgency in the North. At present also, the structure of our security architecture is dominated by northerners.”

He added that for any northerner to say he is not voting for President Tinubu next year “means we are not honest, even to ourselves. It means that northerners are not reliable politically because this is a man who aligned himself with northern Nigeria all his life.”

Other public commentators have expressed reservations about choosing Kaduna as the venue of the event, saying the APC is afraid of the reactions of the public; hence they decided to hold the event at a township stadium as against the usual Murtala Muhammad Square.

Jalal Falal, a politician and public affairs analyst, said: “The selection of Kaduna State for the flag-off of the APC presidential campaign was deliberate and based on several factors.

“As we know, the event is expected to attract APC members from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Kaduna is also the home state of former governor, Nasir el-Rufai, a prominent opposition figure who is currently facing legal proceedings.

“The APC may want to use the opportunity to demonstrate its political strength, even in a state associated with an opposition figure.

“However, the crowd at the rally may not necessarily reflect the actual level of acceptance of the APC among the people of Kaduna State.”

He said Kaduna was strategically located in the North, making it relatively accessible to people travelling from the North-East and North-Central regions to attend the event. This is another possible reason for choosing the state.

“Another important factor is Governor Uba Sani’s political activities since assuming office. In my view, he has paid more attention to political engagements than governance. He has attended several political gatherings and party activities across the country, sometimes at the expense of his primary responsibility of governing Kaduna State.

“The APC may, therefore, see the campaign flag-off as an opportunity to reciprocate the governor’s support and political commitment to the party. The frequency of State Executive Council meetings since his administration began is one of the issues that should be examined in assessing his approach to governance.

“Furthermore, Nigerians, including residents of Kaduna State, are facing economic hardship. The policies of President Bola Tinubu’s administration have increased the burden on many citizens and the effects are being felt across the state.

“The APC may, therefore, find it easier to mobilise a crowd for the rally than to secure an enthusiastic reception from residents.

“Previously, major political gatherings of this nature were held at the Murtala Mohammed Square in Kaduna, a larger venue capable of accommodating a substantial crowd. This time, however, the party has chosen Kaduna Township Stadium, which has a reported capacity of about 10,000 people.

“The choice of venue raises questions about the expected turnout and the security arrangements for the event. The APC may be seeking a location where security personnel can easily manage access and movement around the venue,” he said.

A Kaduna-based political analyst, Haruna Ibrahim Nasarawa, described the choice of Kaduna for the campaign flag-off as strategic because of the state’s position in northern politics.

According to him, Kaduna is home to people from different ethnic, religious and social backgrounds, making it a meeting point for political interests across the country.

He said supporters from other northern states could find it easier to travel to Kaduna than some other destinations in the region.

“It is better for the rally to hold in Kaduna than Sokoto, Zamfara or Katsina states because Kaduna is more or less the centre of northern Nigeria and also a bit safe compared to others,” he noted.

He added that people from Bauchi, Gombe, Borno and Yobe might prefer to attend a rally in Kaduna because of its location and transport connections.

Nasarawa also argued that the state’s concentration of security formations could make it a more suitable location for a large political gathering than some other parts of the North-West.

His position reflects the logistical and political considerations behind the choice of Kaduna, adding that Governor Uba Sani has a strong relationship with the president, which might also be the reason for the choice of Kaduna for the flag-off.

Nasarawa further suggested that the choice of a smaller venue could be linked to security and the desire to create a visibly full stadium.

He said the venue was close to important security facilities, including the police command headquarters and other security establishments.

He added that a smaller stadium could appear full, even if the rally did not attract all the supporters expected across the North-West.

The APC Kaduna State publicity secretary, Mohammed Sani Haruna, said Kaduna was an important city with emotional and historical connections to people across northern Nigeria and due to its historical significance, national outlook and the relationship between Governor Sani and President Bola Tinubu.

He said Kaduna, which formerly served as the capital of the defunct Northern Region, remained a city to which many northerners had strong sentimental attachments.

“Kaduna is a city of different colours. First, it is the capital of northern Nigeria and was formerly the capital of the defunct Northern Region. It is a city to which almost everyone in the North has some sentimental or emotional attachment,” he said.

Haruna added that Kaduna was home to people from different parts of the country, making it a suitable location for a major national political event.

He said the presence of Nigerians from different backgrounds in the state made it representative of the country’s diversity.

“In that sense, Kaduna represents the whole of Nigeria. When you bring an event to Kaduna, you are bringing it to almost the entire country because there is hardly any part of Nigeria that is not represented here,” he said.

The APC spokesman also cited the longstanding relationship between Governor Uba Sani and President Tinubu, saying the two leaders had worked together as pro-democracy activists during the struggle for the restoration of democracy.

According to him, the relationship between the two leaders was another factor that made Kaduna a suitable venue for the campaign flag-off.

He acknowledged that Kaduna still faced security challenges but said there had been achievements in efforts to protect residents and communities.

He added that since the president could not visit every part of the North at once, Kaduna offered an opportunity to reach people from different parts of the region.

On the choice of the Uba Sani Township Stadium as the venue for the event instead of Murtala Square, Haruna said people were entitled to express different opinions about the decision.

He said polo tournament was ongoing at the Murtala Square while the ABS is undergoing construction, adding that the Township Stadium is the one available and located within the centre of the city which made it very convenient for an event like this.

Campaign promises in 2023

In 2023, Tinubu and his running mate, Kashim Shettima, promised to tackle insecurity, strengthen national security; eliminate terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and other forms of violent extremism. They also promised to recruit, train and equip additional security personnel and establish specialised anti-terrorism units; modernise security equipment and strengthen intelligence gathering, border security and community policing; improve the welfare of security personnel and families of fallen officers and protect critical infrastructure and combat oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

They further promised to diversify the economy away from excessive dependence on crude oil exports; create jobs, particularly for young Nigerians, and promote entrepreneurship; encourage domestic manufacturing, exports and private-sector investment; develop industrial hubs across the six geopolitical zones; improve public finance management, reduce government waste and corruption, strengthen revenue generation; review the exchange-rate regime, pursue a stronger and more stable naira.

Other pledges included; to tackle inflation by increasing the production and supply of goods, as well as coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth and limit foreign-currency borrowing and link new borrowing to revenue-generating projects where possible, among other things; increase electricity generation, transmission and distribution capacity; increase crude oil production to 2.6 million barrels per day by 2027 and four million barrels per day by 2030.

They also promised to increase indigenous participation in crude oil production, targeting more than one million barrels per day by 2027; expand gas production and complete critical gas infrastructure projects; combat oil theft and gas flaring through stronger enforcement and technology; rehabilitate refineries and pursue sufficient domestic refining capacity to meet petroleum-product demand; phase out fuel subsidies and redirect the savings towards infrastructure, agriculture and social welfare.

The target for 2027

The Director-General of the Arewa for Asiwaju and former Minister of Defence, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, said the campaign targeted over 10,000 supporters from the 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory for the campaign flag-off.

In a statement issued by the movement’s head of media relations, Edwin Olofu, Abubakar said the mobilisation would involve the group’s national leadership, state coordinators and grassroots structures.

Abubakar said the target reflected the group’s determination to demonstrate its organisational capacity and sustain support for Tinubu.

He urged members to intensify mobilisation and ensure that their activities remained peaceful and orderly.

The atmosphere in Kaduna

Since the APC announced its decision to hold the North-West presidential campaign in Kaduna, the state has been busy. It is also wearing a new look as major streets within the state metropolis have been painted, while President Tinubu’s political posters are at strategic places, including roundabouts, mega billboards and public buildings.

The Kaduna State Township Stadium, venue of the campaign flag-off, has been given a facelift.

Weekend Trust observed that most of the major roads like the Muhammadu Buhari Way, Sokoto Road from the Government House to NEPA roundabout have been renovated.

Also, the 44 Army roundabout was recently constructed and completed by the state government. Streetlights have been installed along major streets. Similarly, the stadium was repainted and decorated with APC flags ahead of the event.

A visit to the venue showed that roads leading to the stadium had also been adorned with billboards and posters of President Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima and the Kaduna State governor, Uba Sani.

Inside the stadium, the conveniences, pavilion and other facilities have been prepared for guests expected to attend the campaign rally.

The venue has also been restricted to the public ahead of the rally, with APC flags flying and the premises decorated with green lawns and campaign posters of the president.

Security agencies promise tight arrangements

Security is another major issue surrounding Tinubu’s visit. But the Kaduna State police command said personnel from different security agencies had been deployed to provide security before, during and after the rally.

The police spokesperson, DSP Mansir Hassan, told Weekend Trust that the command was prepared for the event and urged residents to remain peaceful and obey the law.

“We know Kaduna people to be peace-loving and law-abiding citizens. So we are urging them to be law-abiding during and after the rally,” he said.

He added that the police were not expecting problems because of the planned deployment of security personnel across the state.

Hassan also said some roads leading to the venue would be affected by movement restrictions.

The arrangements are intended to protect the president, party leaders, supporters and residents. Their effectiveness will depend on proper coordination among the security agencies and clear information about road closures and alternative routes.

From campaign visits to working relationship

Before the 2023 general election, Tinubu visited Kaduna at least twice during his presidential campaign period. On October 16, 2022, he attended an interactive session with northern leaders at the Arewa House, Kaduna, where he discussed his plans for the region.

He returned to the state in December 2022 when he visited Birnin Gwari to commiserate with residents affected by banditry. He also attended the APC North-West presidential campaign rally at the Ahmadu Bello Stadium on December 13.

During the Birnin Gwari visit, Tinubu was accompanied by the then governor, Nasir el-Rufai and Senator Uba Sani as the governorship candidate. He reportedly assured the emir and residents of his commitment to addressing insecurity if elected president. The Emir of Birnin Gwari, Zubairu Jibril Maigwari, also conferred a traditional title on him.

Despite the campaign activities, Tinubu lost Kaduna State in the 2023 presidential election to Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

His relationship with the state government under Senator Uba Sani, however, continued after he assumed office in May 2023.

Since then, Tinubu has made three documented visits to Kaduna: on February 10, 2024, for the 60th anniversary of the Nigerian Defence Academy; on June 19, 2025 to inaugurate projects and on September 19, 2025 to attend a wedding of Senator Abdul aziz Yari’s son and visit the family of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The visits have included military, development and social engagements, while Governor Sani has maintained a working relationship with the president.

Vice President Kashim Shettima has also represented Tinubu at several official engagements in Kaduna, including activities connected with the resettlement of Tudun Biri residents affected by the December 2023 military drone strike.

Shettima also visited the state following the abduction of school children and teachers from Kuriga in March 2024, conveying the president’s concern and assurances that security agencies had been directed to secure the victims’ release.

In January 2026, he commissioned completed housing units and supporting facilities under the Tudun Biri resettlement scheme.