Lagos, Kano, Onitsha Populations To Rise 25%, 31%, 55% By 2050 -World Bank

The populations of Lagos, Kano and Onitsha are projected to increase by more than 25 per cent, 31 per cent and 55 per cent respectively by 2050, even as Lagos is expected to lose its position as sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city to Luanda, Angola.

A new World Bank report titled “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation” projected that Lagos’ population would rise from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million in 2050, while Kano’s population is expected to increase from 4.8 million to about 6.3 million.

Onitsha, which was also featured among the region’s 15 largest urban centres, is projected to record a faster population increase, from 5.6 million in 2025 to 8.7 million in 2050, representing an increase of approximately 55 per cent.

Despite the growth, Lagos is expected to loose its rank as the most populous city, ranking second among sub-Saharan Africa’s 15 most populous cities by 2050, while Kano is projected to drop out of the ranking. Onitsha, however, is expected to retain its place among the region’s largest cities.

The report’s projections show that rapid urban growth will reshape the ranking of major cities across sub-Saharan Africa over the next 25 years, with Bamako, Mali, and Mogadishu, Somalia, entering the top 15.

Angola’s capital, Luanda, is projected to increase its population by 78 per cent, from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050, overtaking Lagos as the region’s most populous city.

Bamako’s population is expected to rise by 80 per cent, from 4.2 million to 7.6 million, while Mogadishu is projected to record a 64 per cent increase, from 4.4 million to 7.2 million.

The report also identified Yaoundé, Cameroon, as one of the fast-growing cities, with its population projected to rise by 70 per cent, while Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, is expected to record a 21 per cent rise.

According to the report, Lagos ranked first among sub-Saharan Africa’s 15 largest cities in 2025, with 12.8 million people, followed by Luanda with 11.4 million and Kinshasa with 10.9 million.

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, ranked fourth with 7.8 million people, followed by Johannesburg, South Africa, with 7.1 million; Khartoum, Sudan, with 6.8 million; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with 6.7 million; and Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, with 6.6 million.

Nairobi, Kenya, ranked ninth with 6.1 million, while Onitsha and Accra, Ghana, each had 5.6 million people. Yaoundé followed with 5.1 million, Kampala, Uganda, with 4.9 million, Kano with 4.8 million and Cape Town, South Africa, with 4.5 million.

By 2050, Luanda is projected to lead the ranking with 20.3 million people, followed by Lagos with 16.2 million and Kinshasa with 13.2 million.

Dar es Salaam is projected to rank fourth with 13.2 million people, followed by Addis Ababa with 10.8 million, Abidjan with 9.8 million, Khartoum with 9.4 million and Johannesburg with 8.9 million.

Onitsha is projected to rank ninth, with a population of 8.7 million, alongside Yaoundé, also projected at 8.7 million. Nairobi is expected to rank 11th with 8.5 million, followed by Kampala with 7.9 million, Bamako with 7.6 million, and Accra and Mogadishu with 7.2 million each.

The projections indicate that Onitsha will remain among the region’s 15 largest cities, while Kano and Cape Town will no longer feature in the ranking by 2050.

The report warned that rapid urbanisation presents both an economic opportunity and a development challenge for sub-Saharan Africa.

It noted that the region’s urban population increased from 170.2 million in 1975 to 912.6 million in 2025, while the number of people living in cities rose from 64 million to 502.9 million over the same period.

Although population growth rates have slowed, they remain around three per cent annually. If this pace continues, the populations of urban areas and cities could double again within approximately 23 to 25 years.

The report said such growth would require a corresponding increase in urban employment or labour productivity to prevent urban gross domestic product per capita from declining.

It argued that cities must become more productive and create more and better-paying jobs if the region is to translate population growth into sustained economic development.

The World Bank report also highlighted the importance of foundational infrastructure, particularly transport, and better-connected employment centres in enabling cities to benefit from urbanisation.

It cited Lagos’ bus reforms as an example of measures that can improve connections between workers and jobs by better integrating formal and informal transport services.