Nigeria’s agric growth nearly doubles in Q2 2026 amid rising insecurity

…livestock, forestry main growth drivers

Nigeria’s agricultural growth expanded to nearly twice its prior rate in the second quarter of 2026, emerging as one of the main drivers of GDP growth for the period even as insecurity disrupted the farming cycle in some major growing regions.

Data from the Gross Domestic Product released Monday show that agricultural growth rose by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year to 4.39 percent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.82 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The surge was driven by stronger livestock activity, forestry, and higher crop output supported by elevated food prices that incentivised planting.

The livestock subsector grew by 5.28 percent from 1.64 percent in Q2 2025 to 6.92 percent in the same period of 2026, while the forestry subsector grew by 3.22 percent.

“ The livestock subsector has seen a tremendous increase in investments, and this is mainly what has driven the growth for the second quarter,” Adesina Laja, an agribusiness expert, said in response to questions.

Laja added that interest in unconventional forestry products such as bamboo cultivation has increased, saying it explained some of the growth recorded by the sector.

However, he noted that the growth recorded is yet to benefit households as food prices are surging again.

The growth comes despite a deteriorating security environment. Attacks, kidnapping, and displacement in the Middle Belt and parts of the northwest have reduced cultivated areas, raised transport costs, and forced some farmers off their land.

No fewer than 7,825 people were abducted in 1,713 kidnapping and related incidents across Nigeria between July 2025 and June 2026, while at least 1,142 people were killed, according to a recent report by SBM Intelligence.

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On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector grew by 1.24 percent from 3.15 percent in the first quarter to 4.39 percent in the second quarter of 2026.

The agricultural sector was also among the leading contributors to overall GDP in the second quarter, accounting for 26.2 percent, after services with 56.6 percent.

“It is not surprising that crop production wasn’t the main driver of the sector’s growth owing to rising input costs and insecurity, said Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner at Prasinos Farms.

Olorundero attributed the growth to ongoing reforms in the livestock subsector that have made it attractive for investors.

“The government has been focused on the livestock industry and has created its own ministry. This and other support in the industry drove this growth,” he said.

The federal government has launched a series of reforms after the creation of the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development began to take hold and break decades of underperformance.

The reforms in the subsector have targeted a long-standing constraint: farmer-herder conflict. The ministry rolled out pilot ranching and fodder-production projects in partnership with state governments and development partners, aimed at reducing pressure on farmland and improving productivity per animal.

While insecurity in the northwest and Middle Belt still disrupted movement and raised costs, industry groups said formalized livestock data collection and credit lines to cooperatives gave commercial operators more certainty.

With meat and dairy demand rising nationwide, analysts expect livestock to remain the fastest-growing agriculture segment — provided security and infrastructure gaps are closed to scale the reforms beyond pilot states.

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