EXPLAINER: Tinubu’s petrol relief plan, Atiku’s subsidy proposal — how they differ, who pays

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President Bola Tinubu’s administration has extended a discount at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) retail stations and proposed forward crude sales to domestic refineries and a negotiated ceiling on petrol supply costs.

For his part, Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, wants qualifying locally refined petroleum products to receive production support, potentially through crude supplied below market prices.

The government maintains that its measures do not restore the former petrol-subsidy regime. Atiku says they contradict the government’s objections to his proposal.

The distinction lies in where support enters the supply chain, how it is financed and whether consumers receive the intended savings.

On 8 October, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, announced measures intended to cushion households and businesses against rising fuel prices.

According to a presidency statement, NNPC Retail agreed to forgo its petrol profit margin and sell at cost for an initial 30 days.

The announcement followed a ₦66-per-litre discount introduced by NNPC Retail on 1 October to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence anniversary.

In an official statement on 9 October, NNPC Ltd confirmed that the promotion would continue until 31 October across its retail stations nationwide.

Mr Oyedele clarified the same day that the discount was financed through a reduction in NNPC Retail’s profit margin, rather than payments from the federal budget or Federation Account.

He explained that NNPC Retail purchases petrol from Dangote Refinery and other suppliers at market prices before adding its retail margin, which he said accounts for less than five per cent of the pump price.

He argued that higher sales could offset lower earnings per litre and help preserve the company’s profits and dividends to the Federation.

Mr Oyedele had also indicated that the proposed margin discount could be higher or lower than ₦66, depending on NNPC Retail’s calculations, as reported by PUNCH.

Therefore, it is not clear whether the 8 October arrangement will provide additional savings beyond the Independence anniversary promotion.

A 10 October PUNCH report found that motorists had to use the NNPC Fuel App and pay digitally to obtain the ₦66 reduction.

At outlets visited in Abuja, customers paying directly at the pumps were charged ₦1,405 per litre, compared with ₦1,339 for those using the app.

The app requirement formed part of NNPC’s original promotion. However, it could limit access for motorists without smartphones or suitable digital-payment arrangements, including some commercial transport operators whom the government says it intends to prioritise.

The Abuja observations do not establish pump prices or purchasing arrangements at every NNPC station nationwide.

NNPC has not published the number of customers who have received the discount or the volume of petrol sold at reduced prices.

The presidency illustrated the margin waiver using a hypothetical landing cost of ₦1,300 per litre, saying NNPC Retail would sell at that price rather than add its usual margin.

The figure was an example, not an announced nationwide pump price.

The government is also negotiating a ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling on petrol’s ex-gantry or landing cost.

Ex-gantry price is the price at which petrol leaves a refinery or supply facility. Landing cost generally refers to the cost of importing petrol. Neither is necessarily the final price paid by motorists, which may include transportation, distribution and retail margins.

Under the proposed arrangement, refiners and importers would initially absorb costs above the ceiling and recover the difference later, when crude prices or exchange rates become more favourable.

Mr Oyedele described this as price smoothing, with the ceiling subject to monthly review.

The government has not published the proposed agreements or recovery formula. Without those details, it is difficult to establish whether future prices would accommodate earlier shortfalls or what would happen if market conditions remained unfavourable.

The administration also plans to increase forward crude sales to domestic refineries as production rises and previously committed supplies become available.

Forward sales could improve supply certainty but would not necessarily reduce crude prices. Their financial implications depend on the agreed prices, volumes and payment terms, which have not been disclosed.

Atiku proposes support for qualifying petroleum products refined in Nigeria rather than imported finished products.

In written responses to PREMIUM TIMES, Phrank Shaibu, director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, said domestic refineries, including modular refineries, could qualify.

One proposed mechanism involves supplying crude at prices below the prevailing market rate, with the difference treated as production support.

“The final formula would be set out in the programme’s implementation framework and budget,” he said.

Mr Shaibu said the calculation would consider crude benchmarks, verified volumes, refining yields and expected consumer savings. He described the proposed programme as capped, budgeted and subject to independent audits.

Atiku has pledged to begin implementing what he calls a transparent production subsidy from his first day in office. His campaign, however, has not disclosed the discount rate, eligible crude volume, annual spending ceiling or formula for determining consumer savings.

Former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi illustrated the proposal during his 2 October appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today.

Using hypothetical figures, he said crude valued at ₦15,000 could be supplied to participating refineries at ₦10,000, with the ₦5,000 difference constituting the subsidy.

“His ₦15,000/₦10,000 example was illustrative; it was not an approved price or final subsidy formula,” Mr Shaibu clarified.

Mr Amaechi said the programme would include modular refineries rather than benefit Dangote Refinery alone.

At an ADC town hall on 8 October, Mr Amaechi reiterated the proposed distinction between crude prices for domestic refineries and international buyers.

According to New Telegraph, he said the government would not make direct payments to finance the subsidy.

His explanation distinguishes a direct government payment from the financial implications of selling crude below its market value. The question of who would bear that difference remains unresolved.

PREMIUM TIMES previously reported that Mr Amaechi said an Atiku administration would seek amendments to the Petroleum Industry Act if existing law prevented implementation.

The government’s discount operates at the retail stage. Eligible customers can receive an immediate reduction at participating NNPC stations, subject to the app and payment requirements. However, hundreds of private filling stations nationwide are not eligible for the government’s programme, meaning millions of Nigerian petrol consumers would still buy petrol at prevailing market rates.

Atiku’s proposal would operate earlier in the supply chain by reducing crude costs for qualifying domestic refineries.

Cheaper crude could reduce refining costs, but it would not automatically produce equivalent reductions at filling stations. Distribution expenses, marketers’ margins and competition would still influence pump prices.

Mr Shaibu said lower consumer prices would be a condition for receiving production support.

“The detailed pricing, monitoring and enforcement rules would be specified in the implementation framework,” he said. “Refiners would have to comply with those rules to receive or retain support.”

He promised safeguards against diversion, arbitrage and excessive refinery margins, supported by published costs and independent audits.

The campaign has not specified how much of any crude-price discount refiners must pass to consumers or the penalties for non-compliance.

The government faces a comparable challenge. A reduction in petrol prices at selected stations does not guarantee lower transport fares.

The extent of any wider benefit would depend on how many commercial operators obtain the discount and whether their savings influence fares.

Petroleum engineer and economist Izielen Agbon has questioned whether subsidising production in a concentrated market would produce sustained price reductions.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, he argued that support for a dominant private refinery would not guarantee lower pump prices without sufficient competition.

Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) data for August illustrate the market structure.

Nigeria recorded average daily petrol receipts of approximately 50.5 million litres, comprising 35.9 million litres from domestic sources and 14.6 million litres from imports.

Dangote Refinery accounted for approximately 35.87 million litres of daily domestic receipts, according to regulatory data reported by PREMIUM TIMES.

The Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna state-owned refineries were listed as not producing.

Dangote therefore accounted for almost all domestically sourced petrol during the period (about 71 per cent of the total petrol consumed), although imports remained a significant share of total supply.

On 6 October, PUNCH reported, citing unnamed refinery officials, that Dangote had stopped selling petrol to major marketers involved in imports while continuing sales to other buyers.

The sources said the decision was intended to prevent blending with imported petrol. Some marketers disputed that explanation and raised competition concerns.

PREMIUM TIMES contacted Dangote Refinery for clarification. No response had been received at the time of the earlier filing.

Neither the reported sales restriction nor Dangote’s market share alone establishes anti-competitive conduct.

Mr Agbon has advocated restoring state-owned refineries to provide a competitive benchmark.

NNPC Ltd announced a memorandum of understanding with two Chinese companies in May to explore restarting the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries. None of the refineries is, however, currently operational, and there is no fixed date for them to resume operations.

The government’s discount reduces the revenue NNPC Retail would otherwise receive from eligible petrol sales.

Mr Oyedele maintains that the company is financing the reduction from its retail margin without reimbursement from the federal budget or Federation Account.

He also disclosed that NNPC Retail sells approximately 70 million litres of petrol monthly, according to PUNCH’s 10 October report, which cited his Channels Television interview.

Applying the ₦66 discount to that entire volume would reduce gross sales revenue by approximately ₦4.62 billion in a month.

The estimate assumes every litre qualifies. Actual forgone revenue depends on eligible purchases and sales volumes.

It is not an established subsidy expenditure or loss of profit. The effect on earnings would depend on the company’s margins, costs and any increase in sales.

NNPC has not published the total volume sold at discounted prices since 1 October.

The proposed ₦1,350 supply-cost ceiling presents a different financial issue. Refiners and importers would initially absorb costs above the ceiling, expecting to recover them later. The eventual burden depends on the shortfall, volume covered and recovery terms.

The ADC’s crude-discount proposal would also have a cost, even without a direct Treasury payment.

Crude sold below its market value represents forgone revenue for the seller. If a producer supplies crude worth ₦15,000 for ₦10,000, it receives ₦5,000 less than the assumed market value unless compensated elsewhere.

The financial burden could fall on a public producer, a private producer or another party under a compensation arrangement.

The campaign has not explained which mechanism it intends to adopt or how it would account for the concession.

Mr Shaibu said the programme would be financed by cutting government waste and unnecessary expenditure, without imposing new taxes or reducing the minimum wage or student support.

The campaign has not identified the expenditure lines to be cut or estimated the savings.

In a 20 September statement, the APC Presidential Campaign Council estimated that Atiku’s proposal could cost ₦17 trillion to ₦21 trillion annually, depending on the crude discount, volumes covered and whether support applied to entire barrels or only petrol sold domestically.

These are the APC’s projections, not independently established costs. The statement does not provide sufficient calculations to reproduce the estimates.

The government’s wider relief package includes cash transfers, subsidised credit, compressed natural gas deployment and other measures. A consolidated estimate of their fiscal implications has not been published.

The Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) provides an existing framework for supplying crude to Nigerian refineries.

In its 10 August report, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said domestic refineries received 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate between April and June 2026, representing 97.4 per cent performance against allocated volumes.

The commission said Dangote Refinery required 63 million barrels during the quarter, while producers offered 68.1 million barrels. The refinery accepted 52.6 million barrels, approximately 78 per cent of what was offered.

The figures distinguish crude offered from crude accepted and delivered. They do not establish why Dangote accepted less than the volume offered.

NUPRC said the framework operates on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis, with transactions subject to commercial agreements.

Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act addresses domestic crude supply obligations.

It provides for commercially negotiated sales between producers and licensed refiners, taking prevailing international prices for comparable crude grades into account.

The provision supports crude availability for domestic refining but does not expressly establish a government-financed discount for refiners.

Section 205(1) provides that wholesale and retail petroleum-product prices should generally follow unrestricted free-market pricing conditions.

Section 205(2), however, permits regulatory intervention where a licensed activity constitutes a monopoly service or involves an excessively dominant supplier.

The law also contains provisions addressing competition, commercial transactions and cost recovery.

A voluntary retail-margin waiver or negotiated crude discount would raise different legal issues from a compulsory below-market sale or mandatory price ceiling.

In a September statement, NMDPRA said it did not fix pump prices, citing the market-pricing provisions of the PIA. The authority also referred to its powers to address anti-competitive practices and abuse of market dominance.

PREMIUM TIMES asked NMDPRA whether the ADC’s proposed consumer-price conditions would constitute regulated pricing and whether existing law provides sufficient enforcement powers.

The authority acknowledged the enquiry but did not provide a response as of the time of this report.

The government’s proposed ₦1,350 ceiling would likewise require clarity on whether participation is voluntary and how the arrangement would be enforced.

Mr Shaibu said an Atiku administration would not implement its programme outside the law.

“If the existing legal framework prevents its implementation, an Atiku administration would submit the necessary bill to the National Assembly to amend or repeal the relevant provisions,” he said.

The campaign has not identified which provisions might require amendment or explained how its first-day implementation pledge would work if legislation were necessary.

Atiku has cited Germany’s temporary fuel-tax reduction as an example of government intervention.

The German government announced a reduction of 14 euro cents per litre in energy tax on petrol and diesel, equivalent to approximately 17 cents after the associated value-added tax effect.

Scheduled for October to December 2026, the measure was estimated to provide €2.5 billion in tax relief.

Germany’s approach reduces fuel taxes, unlike Nigeria’s proposed retail-margin waiver or discounted crude. Its published relief amount, duration and estimated fiscal cost nevertheless provide a useful reference for assessing temporary interventions.

In an 8 October statement issued through Mr Shaibu, Atiku questioned what would happen after the government’s initial 30-day intervention.

“What happens on Day 31? Nigerians wake up to the same brutal prices, the same punishing transport fares and the same rising cost of food,” he said.

PREMIUM TIMES reported his criticism separately.

NNPC has since confirmed that its existing promotion will continue until 31 October. Whether the government’s additional margin-waiver arrangement will produce further savings remains unclear.

The proposed ₦1,350 supply-cost ceiling would be reviewed monthly, but its recovery terms have not been published.

The ADC has not announced an end date for its production subsidy.

Mr Shaibu said the programme would be reviewed against fiscal limits, verified domestic output, consumer savings and market conditions.

“Specific numerical thresholds and a sunset rule have not yet been announced and should be published as part of the completed framework,” he said.

The government can demonstrate the reach of its intervention by publishing discounted sales volumes, the value of the reductions and the number of customers who benefited.

The ADC, meanwhile, would need to disclose its crude-pricing formula, funding arrangements, legal basis and conditions for passing savings to consumers.

Without those details, neither proposal can yet be reliably costed or assessed for its likely effect on petrol prices.

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